European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

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YouGov poll Denmark

Social Democrats 22.5% 3 seats
SPP 6.3% 1 seat

Liberals 19.6% 4 seats
Conservatives 4.8% 0 seats
Liberal Alliance 4.5% 0 seats

Red-Green Alliance 8.0% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 5.4% 1 seat

Social Liberals 6.1% 1 seat
Alternative 3.7% 0 seats

DPP 18.0% 3 seats

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YouGov poll Denmark

Social Democrats 22.5% 3 seats
SPP 6.3% 1 seat

Liberals 19.6% 4 seats
Conservatives 4.8% 0 seats
Liberal Alliance 4.5% 0 seats

Red-Green Alliance 8.0% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 5.4% 1 seat

Social Liberals 6.1% 1 seat
Alternative 3.7% 0 seats

DPP 18.0% 3 seats

Are NB not standing or just not being polled?

Currently they are not on the list of eligible parties. They can become eligible in two ways. Be elected to the national parliament at least six weeks before election day, or collect 70.000 signatures at least eight weeks before the election. So if the general election is on or before 14 April, and they cross the threshold, they will be able to run. They are also trying to collect the signatures, but it does not seem to be where their focus is at and 70.000 is a high number (20.000 for general elections).

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Euro Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis will run again in the 2019 elections as lead candidate for New Unity. He also ran in 2014 and lead Unity to 46.2% and 4 out of the 8 Latvian seats. The party was decimated in the recent general election, but still ended up with the premiership (MEP Krišjānis Kariņš).

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Apologies if I've missed this, but have there been any updates on whether Enhedslisten are going to contest these elections under their own banner? I know they voted to do so back in 2016, but there was a significant amount of opposition from the wing who prefer to run with the Folkebevaegelsen and I wouldn't be surprised if they'd quietly dropped it and stayed with the front organisation.

If they are going it alone, will the non-Enhedslisten parts run solo, or not?

As you can see from the two polls on the two last pages, they are running and look fairly certain to get a seat. And since the left is generally doing quite well currently, it looks very likely like the People's Movement will get one too. The two parties are running in an electoral alliance.

Two MPs are heading the list for Enhedslisten/Red-Green Alliance. Spokesperson on Refugees, Migration, Asylum and Human Rights, Nikolaj Villumsen is the lead candidate, so will get most of the attention and likely be elected. Spokesperson on Defence, Eva Flyvholm, is second on the list. A third MP, Henning Hyllested, is also on the list, but mostly to collect some votes. He does not seem interested in becoming a MEP.

The People's Movement's current MEP and lead candidate, Rina Ronja Kari, is a member of Enhedslisten, but is/was not a candidate for them in elections. Current Enhedslisten MP Christian Juhl is among the other candidates on the People's Movement list of candidates.

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Thanks! I should have paid more attention.

How does the electoral alliance work in practice if they aren't on the same list?

The Danish electoral system for EU elections uses D'hondt method in a two-part process to distribute seats. First all seats are distributed across the electoral alliances. Afterwards the seats are distributed internally in the electoral alliance.
So if you have two parties on 4% running alone without an electoral alliance, they will both miss out on a seat (currently the coefficient needed for the 14th and last Danish seat is around 5.7%). However, if they run in an electoral alliance, they have 8% and will certainly get a seat. Then the seat will go to the biggest of the two parties.
Currently, Enhedslisten/Red-Green Alliance is on 8.6% in the average, and the People's Movement on 6.3%. This means their electoral alliance is fairly certain to get two seats (currently they have seat number 4 and 11 in the distribution process), and a third seat is not a million miles away (currently 18th in distribution order).
While if they ran alone they would get seats 9 and 13, and the People's Movement would not have to drop by much to miss out on a seat. And a third seat would be much further away.

In 2014, Liberal Alliance decided to run on their own as they deemed Liberals and Conservatives too pro-EU. Liberal Alliance got 2.9%, which was far from enough for a seat. Had they, like in 2019, run in an electoral alliance with Liberals and Conservatives, the Liberals would have gained an extra seat.

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DPP finally picked their lead candidates today, so now we can look at all the parties' candidates. I have added the current EP polling average, and the resulting number of seats.

Social Democrats (polling average 22.4%, 3-4 seats)
The two top candidates, Jeppe Kofod and Christel Schaldemose, are the same as in 2014 when the party polled 19.1% and won 3 seats. Two MEPs and little else does not make for a very strong list for the biggest party in Denmark, and neither Kofod nor Schaldemose are particularly popular names. The third and potentially fourth MEP will be found among the remaining 7 unknown candidates (local councillors, local union leaders, EU advisors etc.)
SPP (6.9%, 1 seat)
MEP Margrethe Auken runs for her third term. She is among the most well-known MEPs and have helped SPP to great elections the two last times (15.9% and 2 seats in 2009, 11.0% and 1 seat in 2014). The rest of the list is quite strong as well. MP Karsten Hønge is running, and adds a completely different flavour to the ticket. Auken is very green, pro-migration and ahead of the party in terms of pro-EU sentiments, while Hønge is from the workerite fraction and focused on fair labour conditions, fair competition and from the more Eurosceptic wing. Unlike in other parties, they seem to be handling the differences well. Also on the list is former deputy leader Peter Westermann, and former Syddjurs Mayor, Kirstine Bille.

Liberals (19.1%, 3-4 seats)
Their lead candidate is current MEP Morten Løkkegaard. He was a MEP from 2009-2014, but failed to get re-elected in 2014 as the Liberals dropped to two seats. He was then elected a MP in 2015, but returned to Brussels in 2016 to replace MEP Ulla Tørnæs who became a government minister. However, the biggest candidate in the entire Danish field is probably the second candidate on the Liberal list, Søren Gade. The former Defence Minister received the fifth-highest number of personal votes (28.916) at the 2015 general election, and is very popular in Jutland. He has been Group Leader(Chief whipish) since 2015. However, Løkkegaard and Gade publicly disagrees over a fair bit of EU policy; Gade has a more sceptic tone with focus on the problems regarding migration and welfare and accused Løkkegaard of being too EU-positive. The remaining names on the list are much less strong, although there is a familar name Løkke Rasmussen. The PM's son, Bergur, is running and could very well snatch a third or potentially fourth seat. In the 2013 regional elections, he finished second in terms of personal votes on the Liberal list in the Capital Region and was safely elected.
Conservatives (5.36% 0-1 seat)
After two strong elections in a row with former party leader Bendt Bendtsen, the Conservatives face a much tougher battle this time. There are no well-known names on the list, and their lead candidate Pernille Weiss is a complete nobody. She has been a regional councillor and parliamentary candidate years ago, but has been in the business world for several years. The party is doing what it can to promote her, and the importance of "a Danish voice in the EPP", but it could be tough.
Liberal Alliance (4.0% 0 seats)
The Liberal Alliance lead candidate is Minister of Culture, Mette Bock. While no Liberal Alliance minister is very popular, she should have some appeal among centre-right voters after instigating deep cuts to the left-leaning state broadcaster DR. She has had very good personal results in general elections (11.588 personal votes in 2015).

DPP (15.9%, 2-3 seats)
Today, the party announced that Peter Kofod Poulsen will be the party's lead candidate. The 28-year old MP is one of the rising stars in the party, and right after the 2015 election, he got the important post as Spokesperson on Justice. Current MEP Anders Vistisen will be second on the list, while MP Pia Adelsteen will be third. Adelsteen is currently chair of parliament's Committee on Environment, but has previously been EU spokesperson so is experienced and knowledgable within the field. A stronger candidate list than expected from the party, which has unsuccesfully tried to convince some of the big elephants (Pia Kjærsgaard, Søren Espersen, Peter Skaarup) to run.

Red-Green Alliance (8.6%, 1 seat)
In their first ever EP campaign, the Red-Green Alliance will be lead by MP Nikolaj Villumsen. He has an influential role in the parliamentary group (spokesperson on migration and even acting leader during Skipper's parental leave), but he has very little charisma and has had poor general election results. Red-Green Alliance's strength is in urban areas, and while Johanne Schmidt won 40.425 personal votes in Copenhagen, Pernille Skipper won 11.120 personal votes in Odense and Stine Brix won 5.762 personal votes in Aalborg, Villumsen only managed to get 2.338 personal votes as lead candidate in the 2nd largest city Aarhus. The party brand, however, is very strong and should ensure a seat for Villumsen. Back-bench MP and defence spokesperson Eva Flyvholm is second on the list, while another MP Henning Hyllested wants to help the part, but not get elected so is at the bottom of the list.
People's Movement against the EU (6.3%, 1 seat)
Incumbent MEP Rina Ronja Kari will run again as the lead candidate. In 2014, she was completely unknown but had a decent campaign, and she has had some attention in the current term. Now she has to handle competition from the Red-Green Alliance, but the current strength of the left means that they should both get a MEP. Red-Green MP Christian Juhl is also on the list, but far down.

Social Liberals (6.8%, 1 seat)
Incumbent MEP Morten Helveg Petersen is the lead candidate again. As a member of a political dynasty and with several years of political experience, he is a fairly household name. He has focused on green issues, and was criticized for being too technochratic by 2nd on the list, Karen Melchior, who challenged him for first spot. Melchior is from the very post-modern, feminist, identity politics-focused wing in the party.
The Alternative (3.9%, 0 seats)
Current MP, Rasmus Nordqvist, will be the lead candidate in the party's first European election. Nordqvist is political spokesperson for the party, and the best candidate they could run if not party leader Uffe Elbæk or some big name outside politics were going to run. However, the party's brand has taken a hit in the last two-three years, and there is significant competition on the left wing with Auken as a established green voice and Red-Green Alliance running as well.

New Right and/or Christian Democrats will run if they get elected to the national parliament at least six weeks before the European elections or collect 70.000 signatures.

So strictly based on candidate quality, I would expect SPP, Liberals (if the lid stays on) and Liberal Alliance to do a bit better than they currently do. Probably DPP as well. I expect Red-Green Alliance to do poorer, which could aid People's Movement, SPP and Alternative. Social Democrats and Conservatives are not impressive either. Normally candidate quality matters quite a bit in European elections as the lead candidates get a lot of exposure, but if the general election is on the same day, then that effect could be diminished.

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At ALDE's congress in late 2018, they said that their lead candidates would be announced in Berlin in early 2019. I can see that they have planned a ALDE Party Council in Berlin this Saturday, so we can presume that their candidates will be presented there.

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At ALDE's congress in late 2018, they said that their lead candidates would be announced in Berlin in early 2019. I can see that they have planned a ALDE Party Council in Berlin this Saturday, so we can presume that their candidates will be presented there.

Isn't this bound to be Verhofstadt if we haven't heard any other signals yet?

If LA unexpectedly does win a seat, would they be in ALDE or ECR? I guess ALDE?

Well, they said they wanted to name a team of candidates (and En Marche will name their own who is sort of maybe in the team). But they didn't say much about how high profile it would be, or if one of them would be their candidate for Commission President. Several of the national ALDE leaders might have their eyes set on the European Council Presidency instead. But haven't heard any rumours yet either. If they want to really go for it, we should hear names like Vestager, Roivas, Jourova etc, but I wouldn't be surprised either if it was just Verhofstadt and a couple of unknown national lead candidates.

LA's general state is bad, but their lead candidate should be a fair bit above average. They will likely "only" have to pass the Conservatives to get a seat, so not that unlikely. But as said much depend on circumstances, general election etc. In 2014, they were close to ECR and really liked Lucke's AfD. Now I don't know. They will likely state that they will prefer a new liberal group, which is less pro-EU and more willing to cut regulation and budgets. Such a group is unlikely to come about, so then they will go somewhere else. Perhaps ALDE, or maybe even EPP (if Conservatives are out). ECR still an option, but if it becomes too much of just anti-immigration parties, and less pro-free market parties, I think they will pass.

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Pavel Telička, lead candidate for ANO in 2014, is creating his own movement, VOICE, to run in the EU elections. Will be interesting to see if he can make it in the notoriously low turnout Czech EU elections. He was commissioner for 5 months in 2004, and is currently Vice President of the European Parliament and vice-chair in ALDE.

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The Reform Party's candidate list must be the strongest namewise in the whole EU?

Former PM and current European Commissioner Andrus Ansip as no 1, former PM Taavi Rõivas as no 2 and current MEP and long time Foreign Minister Urmas Paet as no 3.

Ansip was also lead candidate in 2014, where the party won 24.3% and 2 seats. He was elected alongside Kaja Kallas, who is now the Reform Party's PM candidate for the 3 March general election.

https://news.err.ee/886128/reform-s-european-parliament-candidate-list-topped-by-ansip-roivas-paet

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Just saw this article now, so we won't get any news on ALDE candidates until late March

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-liberals-alde-delay-key-decision-on-lead-commission-candidates-margrethe-vestager-guy-verhofstadt/

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Today SLD decided in voting overwhelmingly that they will participate in the EP elections in coalition with PO. There are also gossips that Greens will join (although I still somehow doubt that). So we might end up with EPP/S&D/ALDE/G-EFA coalition in Poland. Peak establishmetism.

Polski wybory poll with that scenario

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Konservative lead candidate for the EP19 elections, Pernille Weiss, has said that she supports at least a suspension, and perhaps even exclusion, of Fidesz. However, she has said the party's final decision will be taken by the leadership; party leader Søren Pape hasn't commented yet.

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The PM's son, Bergur Løkke Rasmussen, officially chosen as Liberal candidate. He should have decent chances of getting elected. Liberals are on 3-4 seats in the few polls, we have seen so far. And MEP Morten Løkkegaard and MP Søren Gade are the two only big names on the list.

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So strictly based on candidate quality, I would expect SPP, Liberals (if the lid stays on) and Liberal Alliance to do a bit better than they currently do. Probably DPP as well. I expect Red-Green Alliance to do poorer, which could aid People's Movement, SPP and Alternative. Social Democrats and Conservatives are not impressive either. Normally candidate quality matters quite a bit in European elections as the lead candidates get a lot of exposure, but if the general election is on the same day, then that effect could be diminished.

Norstat poll for Altinget & Jyllands-posten mostly, but not fully, supports my thinking on candidate quality.
The poll asks "which EP lead candidate would you prefer to vote for?"

Margrethe Auken (SPP) 15.0%
Morten Løkkegaard (Liberals) 11.7%
Peter Kofod Poulsen (DPP) 8.7%
Jeppe Kofoed (Social Democrats) 7.5%
Rina Ronja Kari (People's Movement Against the EU) 4.7%
Morten Helveg Petersen (Social Liberals) 4.6%
Mette Bock (Liberal Alliance) 3.2%
Pernille Weiss (Conservatives) 2.2%
Nikolaj Villumsen (Red-Green Alliance) 1.7%
Rasmus Nordquist (Alternative) 1.6%
Don't know 32.3%
Certain not to vote 6.7%

There must be quite a lot of uncertainty with so many doubters, but the poll suggests that SPP does have a very good lead candidate. A good result for the Liberals, particularly with the more popular Søren Gade lower on their list. Kofod likely to do well for DPP without reaching Messerschmidt standards. Social Democrats, Red-Greens and Conservatives with subpar candidates. I would have expected LA and Alternative lead candidates to do better, but their party's crises probably helps drag them down. And Bock can at least be happy that she is above Weiss, as the two small centre-right parties could easily battle it out for the last seat in the centre-right electoral alliance.

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Søren Pape, leader of the Danish conservatives, tweeted:"I have told Manfred Weber that he has the full support of Konservative to make Orban fall in line. Otherwise, he is out of EPP. It's as simple as that".

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DPP lead candidate Peter Kofod Poulsen, who first received media attention when he started the site "Report an Eastern European" where people could report suspicious behaviour from Eastern Europeans, is now called Peter Kofod Hristov after his marriage to a Bulgarian citizen.

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"ALDE aims to break the mold with not one but at least seven leading candidates for top EU jobs. Their names will be presented at the March 21 meeting when the EU’s eight liberal prime ministers, as well as party leaders and European commissioners, kick off the group’s campaign at their usual pre-European Council summit meeting in Brussels.

Vestager would join a list of candidates which is also expected to include Luis Garicano, the lead candidate of Spain’s center-right Ciudadanos party, Nicola Beer, a German MP and secretary-general of the liberal FDP party, and Guy Verhofstadt, the liberal leader in the European Parliament and former Belgian prime minister."

https://www.politico.eu/article/vestager-sides-with-macron-as-eu-election-race-heats-up/

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The Swedish Liberals have ditched lead candidate Cecilia Wikström, MEP since 2009, after revelations that she have had well-paid board positions for companies Beijer-Alma and Elekta while being a MEP. This decision was made by the party's ethics committee. Perhaps Jan Björklund could be tempted to run, having announced that he is leaving as L leader?

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ALDE to present its Team Europe candidates on Thursday 21 March 11 45 CET at Egmont Palace.

It sounds like Vestager will be the biggest name, and there are already several articles about her expected candidacy: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-13/eu-antitrust-chief-margrethe-vestager-on-her-next-act

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AGI has the names of all seven ALDE lead candidates.

Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager (Radikale)
ALDE Group leader Guy Verhofstadt (Open VLD)
Senator Emma Bonino (Più Europa)
Economist & ALDE Vice-President Luis Garicano (Ciudadanos)
MP Nicola Beer (FDP)
Commissioner for Transport Violeta Bulc (SMC)
Dr. Katalin Cseh (Momentum)

https://www.agi.it/estero/ue_bonino-5168497/news/2019-03-19/

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Surprisingly large majority for temporary suspension of Fidesz from the EPP - and why so few votes against? The EPP Political Assembly has 264 voting members according to Politico.

Sounds like a compromise between those wanting expulsion and those against it. ARD's Europe Correspondent, Markus Preiß, writes that this is in understanding with Orban, who will not move to leave the EPP.

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Apparently, the EPP group (the three wise men) which will evaluate Fidesz will be former President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, former President of the European Parliament, Hans-Gert Pöttering, and former Austrian Chancellor, Wolfgang Schüssel

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Gallup poll for Berlingske. Remember that it's looking likely that the Danish general election could be on 26 May as well, which could have all kinds of consequences + Vestager's announcement as a sort of spitzenkandidat. Compared to the other EU polls, Social Democrats are 3-4% higher, while the far left alliance is equally down. This means that the People's Movement against EU just loses their seat, although they are in the tight battle for the 14th and last seat, which Conservatives just hold on to on these figures. 39.4% of voters are in doubt, so a lot of uncertainty still.

Social Democrats 26.8% (4 seats)
SPP 7.4% (1 seat)

Liberals 21.6% (4 seats)
Conservatives 4.5% (1 seat)
Liberal Alliance 3.1% (0 seats)

DPP 14.6% (2 seats)

Red-Green Alliance 6.4% (1 seat)
People's Movement against EU 4.8% (0 seats)

Social Liberals 8.2% (1 seat)
Alternative 2.6% (0 seats)

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Regarding the effect of the Danish elections being on the same day, by far the largest will be the increased turnout (in Denmark's case, I expect it to go from the mid 50s to the low 80s)

Agree the turnout will likely be very high in that case. In terms of party performance, it can be hard to predict how the effect will be as we have little precedent of whether voters will ticket split or not, and whether the effect of candidate quality will be smaller than usual. If there was no general election, I would be fairly certain that the People's Movement against the EU will make it in, but they could perhaps be forgotten if a general election campaign gets all the focus. Without a general election, I would be skeptical of such a high result for the Social Democrats as in the above poll, but if it's held as the same time as a Frederiksen landslide, then it might be more plausible.