2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 18, 2024, 09:25:12 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 170642 times)
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,535


« on: September 26, 2020, 09:44:49 PM »

For Virginia, part of the shift is just the sheer changes in population.  Loudoun county has added 43,000 voters since 2016 from 232,000 to 275,000.  Meanwhile, take three coal counties from SW Virginia, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Lee they've gone from a combined 42,000 voters in 2016 to 40,000 in the latest numbers.  So, Loudoun has literally added the voting equivalent of those three counties in just 4 years.  An extreme example, but very illustrative of Va.

Yes, Northern Virginia (depending how you define it) used to be like 30% of the statewide total, it's more like 35% nowadays.  Democrats winning NOVA + Richmond area is probably enough to win statewide now even if they lose the Virginia Beach area + rural Virginia.

The Hampton Roads region as a whole seems to lean slightly Democratic but I feel like it will be the region that gives Democrats the most headaches under any Democratic president. Will not even be close to being a solid GOP region but its relatively large population is what would cause some handwringing in close state wide races.
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,535


« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2020, 12:05:33 PM »

For Virginia, part of the shift is just the sheer changes in population.  Loudoun county has added 43,000 voters since 2016 from 232,000 to 275,000.  Meanwhile, take three coal counties from SW Virginia, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Lee they've gone from a combined 42,000 voters in 2016 to 40,000 in the latest numbers.  So, Loudoun has literally added the voting equivalent of those three counties in just 4 years.  An extreme example, but very illustrative of Va.

Yes, Northern Virginia (depending how you define it) used to be like 30% of the statewide total, it's more like 35% nowadays.  Democrats winning NOVA + Richmond area is probably enough to win statewide now even if they lose the Virginia Beach area + rural Virginia.

The Hampton Roads region as a whole seems to lean slightly Democratic but I feel like it will be the region that gives Democrats the most headaches under any Democratic president. Will not even be close to being a solid GOP region but its relatively large population is what would cause some handwringing in close state wide races.

In the Hampton Roads region Democratic support depends very much on minority turnout which tends to plummet in non-presidential elections

That and the military presence in that area.

But the demographics of the Hampton Roads just prevent the region from being a GOP or a DEM strong hold.

The only part of Trump I like is that he has not been a war monger and has even disparaged the troops! That is a HUGE plus in my book.
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,535


« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2020, 12:45:26 AM »

I think I may have been the first TalkElections poster to vote in the 2020 Presidential Election actually.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.016 seconds with 8 queries.