UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[MacShimidh]

I have to say that this has been the most underwhelming transfer of PMs that I've lived through. If I didn't happen to have the telly on at lunchtime, the result might have completely passed me by. In a way, it's quite surreal - I sense literally no buzz from anybody that we're getting a new PM tomorrow, not even from amongst the people who were listening to her victory speech.

Unlike a lot of others, I am willing to give Truss a chance. But there's no denying that she appears a strange woman totally out of her depth, whose odd mannerisms seem to perversely amplify the sense of dread that the country is living under at the moment.

[MacShimidh]

As a Scottish Leave voter - which will admittedly bias this post - I’ve always thought that the whole argument that “Scotland only voted No in 2014 because they were guaranteed to stay in the EU” has been ridiculously over-exaggerated. Yes, there was a sort of voter for whom EU membership was the be-all-and-end-all, but they represent a largely upper middle-class, very online and yes, privileged, section of Scottish society. I’d even go so far as to say that there’s been a significant re-writing of the history of the 2014 referendum - the suggestion that it was EU membership that won it for No didn’t really come about until 2016.

The reality was always far more complex - if Scots felt so strongly about the issue, the SNP wouldn’t have dropped 13% and lost 21 seats in the 2017 GE.  38% for Leave is of course a clear minority, but support across the country was fairly evenly spread both geographically and, surprisingly, across partisan support. I’ve even seen suggestions, though have never been able to find a reliable source, that close to 50% of SNP voters voted Leave. There’s also the inconvenient fact that Scottish turnout in 2016 was noticeably lower than anywhere except Northern Ireland (suggesting a lack enthusiasm for the issue), and it of course merits mention that every major Scottish politician (no, David Coburn wasn’t major) was in favour of Remain, and the lack of debate here certainly had an impact on the final result.

This is an interesting, understudied issue that deserves better than the “All Scots loved the EU so they will now vote for independence” line that always gets lazily bandied about.

[MacShimidh]

Removing the whip from her would have its advantages though - it would allow him to distance himself from the utter sh*tshow surrounding her, and finally enable him to carve out his own political identity (I know he’s only been in the job a couple of months, but he's been almost completely invisible during that time).

That being said, it would also require a level of ruthlessness which just clearly isn’t there. I know it’s a unionist talking point, but the narrative that it’s really the Greens in charge seems hard to dismiss out of hand at the moment.

[MacShimidh]

Those hoping for an SNP wipeout will of course be disappointed, as will those hoping for a return to the pre-2015 norm. But the party is certainly on track for sustained losses, and possibly even a worse result than 2017. How the SNP reacts to such a setback with an underwhelming leader and no clear direction of travel will be fascinating to see.

[MacShimidh]

The most galaxy-brained decision I’ve ever seen.

[MacShimidh]

The genius of Cummings’ and Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” slogan wasn’t in its appeal to hardcore Brexiteers (most of whom were fully behind the Tories by the end of 2019), but rather in its appeal to a huge swathe of the country, Leaver and Remainer alike, who were absolutely sick of the issue and never wanted to hear about it again. When you think about it, it wasn’t exactly a positive endorsement of the policy.

Despite Starmer’s obvious deep aversion to Brexit, Labour can clearly see there’s absolutely no point in dredging up the issue. If the Tories want to do so then that’s their prerogative, but it would be a textbook definition of fighting the last war.