Manitoba election 2016

[Hatman 🍁]

Tied in Winnipeg? Must be a lot of wasted support in the hinterland.

[Hatman 🍁]

Seine River is an easy PC pickup regardless of who the candidate is.  The Liberals have a better chance at winning it at this point

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, Winnipeg. I guess outside of the north, the NDP will be wiped out in rural Manitoba.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals aren't going to win much if all of their strength is in rural Manitoba where the PCs will win most seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow. This is definitely good news.

I do wonder if Selinger will lose his seat Broten-style. I actually hope so, because I loathe him. I want the NDP to do well, but I want Selinger gone. How well do you think the NDP would be doing if Selinger had lost the leadership spill last year? Probably not leading, but maybe at ~30%.

If I lived in St. Boniface, I'd be voting Green TBH.

[Hatman 🍁]

Don't get me wrong, I'd still vote NDP, just not if I lived in Selinger's riding.

And I don't support increasing the PST... it's a regressive tax that hurts the middle/working class more than the wealthy. Definitely not something a social democratic party should support, even if it is a $$$ maker.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of interest:

[Hatman 🍁]

This looks pretty close to what might happen on Tuesday:

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you have a riding-by-riding prediction up yet?

Not yet, these maps are my way of experimenting with the numbers to come up with a sound prediction. I will likely base something on the latter map.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, I assume you meant Brandon East? According to Wikipedia, there have been two polls conducted there over the winter showing the Tories ahead thanks to a Liberal/NDP vote split.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does anybody know the percentages for Winnipeg in the 2011 provincial?

Yes, of course.

[Hatman 🍁]

lol @ CBC

Insights poll of Winnipeg:

PC: 38%
NDP: 28%
Lib: 12%
Grn: 10%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 10%

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/18/peggers-go-tory-in-last-poll-before-e-day

[Hatman 🍁]

Expecting an InsightsWest poll this afternoon. Maybe a Forum poll tonight?

[Hatman 🍁]

lol @ CBC

Insights poll of Winnipeg:

PC: 38%
NDP: 28%
Lib: 12%
Grn: 10%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 10%

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/18/peggers-go-tory-in-last-poll-before-e-day

What's with the Greens? Do they even have candidates everywhere?

They do not. And neither do the Liberals. However, they are polling well simply because the leaders of the three main parties are all terrible.

[Hatman 🍁]

lol @ CBC

These articles are psephological malpractice. If someone wins by 8 votes and there has been a twenty point swing since then, their riding is not one to watch

Yeah, it's very frustrating.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/04/manitoba-election-prediction-pc.html

PCs 43; NDP 11; Libs 3.

Also included is a much better list of ridings to watch

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm bearish on the Green's chances anywhere on the prairies. Who knows though, Manitoba's ridings are so small, they might be able to convince voters in one of them to back them. And with the NDP's unpopularity right now, it might just be the perfect storm.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have:

PC = 44
NDP = 10 (Flin Flon, The Pas, Thompson, Keewatinook, Fort Rouge, Logan, Minto, Point Douglas, St. Boniface and Tyndall Park)
Liberal = 2 (Burrows and River Heights)
Green = 1 (David Nickarz in Wolseley, who apparently is running an even better campaign than Beddome)

I would be stunned if Greg Selinger was reelected.

I do think he will see a large swing against him (more so than the provincial average), but which party will beat him? Tories haven't won there since 1927. Liberals aren't strong enough to win there...

Even in the 2011 federal election (where the Tories won 53% of the vote in MB), they did not win the St. Boniface provincial riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Pas is the biggest surprise so far. The NDP just won the seat in a by-election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Selinger holds his seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Greens off the board now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Kewatinook is not that big of a surprise, considering the Liberals won it in the federal election. There are some reserves in the south of the riding that went like 90% Liberal.

Thompson was not a surprise either, most models showed it as being close. I guess it is somewhat of a surprise in that it was the only riding the PCs wrote off in their last minute push in the north (and turned out to be the only seat they won in the north)

Kevin Lamoureux is VERY popular in Winnipeg, so no surprise his daughter won Burrows. I wish I had payed more attention to that race.

NDP did a bit better in Winnipeg than expected, so kudos on them. Selinger lost a lot of his support, but won because his opposition was divided (as predicted).

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP was supposed to lose Winnipeg by more than 15 points, but ended up losing by only 12. That would explain their over performance in seats there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Swing map:



Despite losing the seat, the NDP still managed a positive average swing in Kewatinook thanks to the PC vote tanking there.

Some notes:
-Large swings to the PCs in rural NDP ridings, especially those with no incumbent (Dauphin, Dawson Trail).
-Large swings to the PCs in Winnipeg in NDP ridings with no incumbents (Trancona, Southdale, Assiniboia)
-Smaller PC swings in safe PC seats (Agassiz, Morden-Winkler, Steinbach)
-Smaller PC swings in safe NDP seats in Winnipeg

[Hatman 🍁]

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