Manitoba election 2016

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First poll post NDP leadership race is released. NDP nearly back to numbers prior to the 'gang of 5'

P.C: 44% -4%
NDP: 29% +3%
Lib: 19% -1%
Green/Other 7%

12% undecided

Winnipeg
P.C: 35%
NDP: 34%
Liberal: 24%

The poll was conducted between March 17 and April 1 among a sampling of 1,005 Manitobans, and is within plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points, said Probe.
http://metronews.ca/news/winnipeg/1332069/small-bump-in-polls-following-manitoba-ndp-leadership-vote/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/selinger-poor-choice-to-keep-as-manitoba-ndp-leader-poll-finds-1.3022348

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An update.  The Manitoba NDP has now renominated nearly all of its MLAs who plan to run again.  

Five NDP MLAs have thus far announced they retiring at the end of this session and another two have already left the legislature.

Retiring
1.Stan Struthers (Gang of Five member, but he was also an MLA since 1995.)

2.Bidhu Jha, MLA since 2003

3.Theresa Oswald, MLA since 2003, Gang of Five member who might come back and run for the leadership post election should the Greg Selinger NDP lose.  I think though she would have a very difficult time trying to defeat the presumed front-runner Kevin Chief.

4.Jim Rondeau, MLA since 2003.  Rondeau was the first New Democrat to win a seat in a Southern Winnipeg Riding, but has been joined by a number of other New Democratic Party MLAs from that region since then.  As was pointed out above, the NDP presently dominate all of Winnipeg provincially holding 26 of the 31 ridings.

5.Nancy Allan, MLA since 1999.  

Already retired.
1.Erin Selby.  MLA since 2011. Resigned to run federally.

2.Peter Bjornson, MLA since 2003.  He had a bad back, but, Bjornson was a high school history teacher before getting elected to the legislature (he was also a Gimli Town Councilor and the owner of a small music related company) and it seems he timed his retirement in order to become eligible to rejoin the teacher's union and the school board list so as to get back into teaching.

Only around four NDP MLAs have yet to be renominated.  I would expect most will run again, though the Speaker of the House, Daryl Reid, who has been an MLA since 1990 maybe won't (not that I've heard anything).

The NDP has only nominated a few new candidates so far, and all in ridings where the incumbent has retired (one P.C retirement, the rest NDP retirements), but I would say they have nominated a surprisingly strong slate of candidates so far for a party supposedly given up for dead.  

The person who wrote an article in the Huffington Post saying that he expected the B.C Liberals would win reelection based on his view that the Liberals had nominated better candidates than the NDP (note, he didn't believe the Liberals would get reelected because they had the superior candidates, only that the better quality of their candidates indicated to him that the Liberals were the party that was being mistakenly 'sold short'.  That writer was mainly referring to the number of municipal politicians who were running for the B.C Liberals, and as their aren't all that many municipal politicians in many of the Manitoba ridings- obviously as many of the ridings are in the city of Winnipeg which has something like ten city councillors, his comment in that regard can't be easily transferred to the Manitoba situation.)

However, I think the NDP has nominated some very strong candidates (at least based on their resumes.)

1.Joe McKellep in Assiniboia (Jim Rondeau's riding) an aboriginal senior civil servant in the provincial Department of Justice who was previously a police officer.

2.Jody Gillis in River East (retiring P.C MLA Bonnie McKinnon's riding) a Business Information Technology Instructor and Curriculum Lead who is also the local shop steward and who also owns his own I.T consulting firm.  He gets a 4.5 out of 5 on 'rate my professor.'

3.Jamie Moses in St. Vital (Nancy Allan's riding) a senior workforce management analyst at Investors Group where he oversees a stuff of over 100.

4.Darcy Scheller in Dauphin (Stan Struthers riding) The business development manager at Pratt's Wholesale (a grocery wholesaler.) Pratts Wholesale is a company with 33 employees, and prior to recently taking on the business development manager position, she was the general manager of the company for 8.5 years.  My guess is she took on the less onerous position in order to run for the NDP nomination.

Nomination meeting being held right now in Gimli (Peter Bjornson's riding)
Two candidates
1.Armand Belanger, East Interlake Conservation District (EICD) Manager.  In addition to being this fairly senior civil servant, as one might expect, Mr Belanger is also a scientist.

2.Scott Carman, the Co-Owner of Ship and Plough Gastropub (and music venue).  Although he and his business partner started this pub only around two years ago it has apparently already become very popular in Gimli and hosts many concerts.  Prior to becoming a business owner, Mr Carman was a communications specialist and senior manager at a division of MTS (the private Manitoba Telephone Service.)

An elected politician, Larry Johannson, the mayor of Selkirk also considered running for the nomination, but ultimately decided he would be more effective remaining as mayor.

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Armand Belanger won the Gimli nomination.

Incumbent one term MLA Clarence Petterson lost the NDP nomination in Flin Flon to Tom Lindsey, a retired Steelworker's Local Health and Safety Representative.  Tom Lindsey was one of the two people to run against Petterson for the nomination in 2011.

The other, Leslie Beck, is now seeking the Provincial Liberal Party nomination.  Not only is Beck a party switcher she was also elected to the Flin Flon city council in 2014 and will have to step down from that position in order to run provincially.

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Probe: 43/29/22. MB Grits haven't polled like that since Carstairs.

I wouldn't be surprised if the poll numbers don't change before the election, if Greg Selinger steps down as leader at the last minute.  He would have the ability to say that, more or less, he left on his own terms and that he left passing a flurry of legislation that he can claim as a legacy.

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Given how the *federal* Grits just fared in Manitoba, I wouldn't have been surprised to see that kind of result, notwithstanding reported internal Manitoba Liberal "issues".

I'd have to check the final Manitoba results, but if I recall them correctly, the Federal Liberals mainly did well in Winnipeg (winning 7 of its 8 ridings), but didn't do well in the rest of the province outside of the Brandon based riding.  This poll shows the provincial Liberals at both 29% in Winnipeg and 29% in the rest of the province.

Again, my recollection of the federal results could be wrong, but based on them, were this poll simply based on Manitoban's reactions to the federal election, the provincial Liberals would likely be doing much better in Winnipeg and not doing so well in the rest of the province.

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But then most of the difference between the NDP figure in that poll and federally would be from Winnipeg wouldn't it?

You are correct.  I actually hadn't previously added up the results for Manitoba outside of Winnipeg.  The Liberals received approximately 52% of the vote in the eight Winnipeg ridings, but also received 33% of the vote in the 6 other Manitoba ridings.

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For the NDP nomination in Seine River to replace outgoing MLA Theresa Oswald, only one person has stepped forward, a woman named Lise Pinkos.

The jokes just write themselves.  Seine River? More like Inseine River!

Lise Pinkos is a youngish woman who is likely little known even in the riding.  However, I don't think she should be regarded as a representative example of the quality of the candidates the NDP is attracting for this election.  My guess is that most of the more prominent New Democrats in that riding are supportive of Theresa Oswald and have no interest in running with Greg Selinger.

The NDP has nominated a half dozen candidates so far (all but one in ridings held by retiring NDP incumbents and the one new nominee who defeated an incumbent) and, based on their resumes, they are mostly surprisingly strong candidates for a party that is supposed to be decimated in the upcoming election.

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Socialist parties often value loyalty and to have heroically-yet-vainly fought to retain a seat for the cause in bad circumstances can count in your favour in later years.

I agree, but the higher profile New Democrats in Seine River likely place their loyalty with Oswald and not with Selinger.

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Seine River is an easy PC pickup regardless of who the candidate is.  The Liberals have a better chance at winning it at this point

At this point, the NDP would be hard pressed to keep any of the southern Winnipeg ridings they hold. Those ridings have gone increasingly to the NDP starting with Nancy Allan's and Linda Asper's upset wins in 1999 as the NDP won most of them in 2011 by around 20%.  Theresa Oswald's much smaller victory there in 2011 (around 9%) I don't think should be taken as a sein that the NDP wasn't as popular in that riding as it was in the other neighboring ridings as the P.Cs ran a star candidate there.

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Four prospective Liberal candidates were disqualified from the ballot for failing to properly get 50 signatures.  These are in rural ridings and the people giving the signatures incorrectly gave their post office box and not their home address.

These four ridings without Liberal candidates are Agassiz, Lac du Bonnet, Arthur-Virden and Lakeside.


A fifth Liberal candidate, Joanne Levi was disqualified after the NDP filed a complaint to Elections Manitoba saying she wasn't eligible to run as she had been working as an enumerator until she quit earlier this month to seek the Liberal Party nomination.

She says that the regulations on this are vague and that she assumed it meant that she only couldn't work as an enumerator while seeking the nomination (or, obviously after getting the nomination.)

That may be fair enough, but I'd like to know if she consulted a lawyer or asked for an opinion from Elections Manitoba before taking the enumerators job regarding this matter.

Liberal Party leader Rena Bukhari was reported by CBC to have said that she was disappointed that these candidates couldn't run due to 'technical matters.'  I don't want to stereotype her based on her profession, but her day job is as a lawyer (corporate and commercial law) so she should be familiar with technicalities, so I think this is a rather ridiculous comment from her, if she was quoted accurately by the CBC.

The Manitoba Liberal Party managed to run a full slate of candidates in 2003, 2007 and 2011 despite being nowhere near as high in the polls as they are now.  Rena Bukhari appears to be living up (or living down if you prefer) to the perception of her as being a complete dud as a party leader.  If there is leader's debate, that could be the only chance she has to change this perception. It will be interesting to see what, if any, effect this has on the polls.

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The Liberals aren't going to win much if all of their strength is in rural Manitoba where the PCs will win most seats.

Looks like a 6th Liberal candidate has dropped out? I've lost count
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-election-kurt-berger-resignation-1.3519868

Who has run the more incompetent campaign, Cam Broten or Rana Bokhari?

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Latest Poll from Mainstreet Research


MANITOBA (decided), (March 31th Results)
•PC 50%  (47)
•NDP 25% (23)
•Liberal 16% (23)
•Green 9% (7)

UNDECIDED: 22%

WINNIPEG (decided and leaning),(March 31th Results)

•PC 46% (40)
•NDP 29% (27)
•Liberal 16% (25)
•Green 9% (

REST OF MANITOBA (decided and leaning), (March 31th Results)

•PC 55% (53)
•Liberal 20% (22)
•NDP 16% (15)
•Green 9% (9)



http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/06/new-poll-tories-poised-to-win-big

Liberals in collapse.  Is there going to be a debate?

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In policy matters, to the degree that I follow other provinces, Greg Selinger is probably my favorite Premier.  His raising the sales tax after he said he wouldn't unfortunately makes him Premier Bonehead II (Mike Harcourt was Premier Bonehead I.)  

A year ago, cabinet minister Kevin Chief was assumed to be the obvious replacement for Selinger, I don't know if that is still the case.  

I'll  add that the polls prior to the uprising by the Gang of Five, the NDP was slowly rising in the polls and back up to nearly 30%.  Had it not been for this foolish move that they themselves admitted they didn't do on the basis of principle but merely on the basis that they didn't believe that the NDP could win the next election under Selinger, the party would clearly be in a stronger position in the polls than they are now.  There have been a lot of boneheaded cabinet ministers in Canadian history, but none so named.  I'd like to nominate the Gang of Five as bonehead cabinet ministers one through five.

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Mainstreet: 55/26/11. Tuesday's gonna be AWESOME.

The NDP got what they presumably wanted in that the Liberal vote collapsed, but the former Liberal supporters went to the P.Cs and not back to the NDP.

If these numbers are accurate, the NDP will likely come nowhere near to winning even the 12 seats they won in 1988, and, as has been previously posted, even Liberal M.L.A John Gerrard may lose due to the swing to the P.Cs.

Question for people in Manitoba (or close observers of Manitoba politics) Why did the Liberals not boot Rena Bukhari as their leader long before this election?  It was apparent she was well in over her head for quite some time.  Was there just no mechanism to do so? Were they afraid of the optics of tossing out a female leader?

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Well I'm going out on a limb.  This probably won't quite happen, but this is my prediction

Ridings: 57
P.C: 57
NDP: 0
Liberal:0

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Pallister says he complied with all disclosure requirements about his Costa Rican properties.

I think these stories are breaking too late to have any impact on the result.  Not that I said that I really expected the NDP to be shut out, but if they do surprise me and win ten seats or so, I will say though that were it not for these late breaking stories, the NDP would have ended up close to losing every seat.

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Fwiw in 2001 the very unpopular BC NDP government lost the popular vote 59-21 and ended up with just two seats. Four years later they were back up to 33 seats and 42% of the vote. I don't think the Manitoba NDP is quite as unpopular as their bc counterparts were in 2001 but Pallister strikes me as very likely to be another ,Gordon Campbell type 

Gordon Campbell was polarizing in 2005, but still quite popular.  I think Pallister is more like a Sterling Lyon or even a Tony Abbott in Australia.  One and done.

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lol @ CBC

Insights poll of Winnipeg:

PC: 38%
NDP: 28%
Lib: 12%
Grn: 10%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 10%

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/18/peggers-go-tory-in-last-poll-before-e-day

What's with the Greens? Do they even have candidates everywhere?

They do not. And neither do the Liberals. However, they are polling well simply because the leaders of the three main parties are all terrible.

If the Green supporters actually vote, they could win Rob Altemeyer's riding.  Is that Wolsely (Wolsey?)

P.C: 56
Green: 1

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Does anybody know the percentages for Winnipeg in the 2011 provincial?

I totaled these numbers up myself. For some reason my riding by riding addition from the wikipedia numbers  and the total votes each party received also on wikipedia don't add up together, but I don't think the vote differences are hugely significant.  


2011 Result
Winnipeg 252,746
NDP: 129,209, 51.12% 26
P.C: 90,642, 35.86% 4
Liberal: 24,343, 9.63%, 1
Green: 8,381, 3.32%
Other: 171

The North (Flin Flon, Kewatinook, The Pas, Thompson)
Total: 14,730
NDP: 9,525, 64.66% 4
P.C: 4,207, 28.56%
Liberal: 794, 5.39%
Green: 204, 1.38%

Brandon, 15,154
NDP: 7,606, 50.19% 1
P.C: 6,732, 44.42% 1
Liberal: 658, 4.34%
Green: 158, 1.04%

Rural and Small Town Manitoba
Total: 146,314
NDP: 51,367, 35.11%, 6
P.C: 86,103, 58.85%, 14
Liberal: 6,528, 4.46%
Green: 2,103, 1.44%
Other: 213


--------------------------------------------------------------
Total result outside of Winnipeg
Total: 176,198
NDP: 68,498, 38.88% 11
P.C: 97,042, 55.08% 15
Liberal: 7,980, 4.53%
Green: 2,465 1.40%
Other: 213

------------------------------------------------------

Manitoba, 2011 Election
MY Totals:  428,944
NDP: 197,707, 46.09%
P.C: 187,684, 43.75%
Liberal: 32,323, 7.54%
Green: 10,846, 2.53%
Other: 384

Final Results provided by Wikipedia
Total: 431,302
NDP: 199,066, 46.16%
P.C: 188,528, 43.71%
Liberal: 32,420, 7.52%
Green: 10,886, 252%
Other: 394

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Stab in the dark, I haven't spent a lot of time combing through the riding results and polls:

PCs  43
NDP  12
Liberals  2

PC: 50
NDP: 6
Liberal: 1

Liberal win: John Gerrard
NDP wins (by riding) The Pas, Thompson, Point Douglas, Logan, Minto, Wolseley

So, fortunately for the NDP, the Liberal campaign flames out and they fail to replace the NDP as the official opposition (such as it is) and also the person widely expected to be the next NDP leader, Kevin Chief is reelected in Point Douglas.

Had the Green Party leader James Beddome run in Wolseley this time, I think he would have beaten Rob Altemeyer, but for some reason he decided this time to run in Fort Garry-Riverview.

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I have:

PC = 44
NDP = 10 (Flin Flon, The Pas, Thompson, Keewatinook, Fort Rouge, Logan, Minto, Point Douglas, St. Boniface and Tyndall Park)
Liberal = 2 (Burrows and River Heights)
Green = 1 (David Nickarz in Wolseley, who apparently is running an even better campaign than Beddome)

I would be stunned if Greg Selinger was reelected.

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I have:

PC = 44
NDP = 10 (Flin Flon, The Pas, Thompson, Keewatinook, Fort Rouge, Logan, Minto, Point Douglas, St. Boniface and Tyndall Park)
Liberal = 2 (Burrows and River Heights)
Green = 1 (David Nickarz in Wolseley, who apparently is running an even better campaign than Beddome)

I would be stunned if Greg Selinger was reelected.

I do think he will see a large swing against him (more so than the provincial average), but which party will beat him? Tories haven't won there since 1927. Liberals aren't strong enough to win there...

Even in the 2011 federal election (where the Tories won 53% of the vote in MB), they did not win the St. Boniface provincial riding.

True, but I can't see more than 20-25% voting for him either.  Although my prediction is for the P.Cs to win here, maybe this riding will be a complete surprise like a Green Party victory.

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Is the election streaming live anywhere?  I assume CBC has NHL playoff hockey.

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http://globalnews.ca/news/2649035/live-coverage-of-the-2016-manitoba-election/

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http://www.electionsmanitoba.ca/en/Results/ENR#