Ontario 2018 election

[_]

Doug Ford would run higher deficits than NDP and the Liberals according to economists. So that means that the NDP has become the party of fiscal responsibility.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4245631/doug-ford-pcs-deficit-economists/

Oh how far the PCs have fallen.

[mileslunn]

Both Stephen Harper and the founders of the NDP believed in one thing: a "proper" polarization with the NDP on the left, the Conservatives on the right and the Liberal center squeezed out.  Harper was of the belief that a proper left/right polarization would benefit the "free enterprise coalition", NDPers believe there's a "progressive majority."

Harper did a lot to win so-called blue Liberals and was successful in 2011 but he was too much of an ideologue to hold it together (he actually sounds more of a rabid ideologue now than he did in power - which is unusual for retired heads of government).  Ford will likely prove even more erratic and incapable of maintaining a united center-right.

I think Harper was hoping Canada would become like BC or looking abroad like the UK and Australia where you have a left/right polarization and unlike Canada, the right wins the majority of time.  But to do this it would have to be a bigger tent than he ever made it.  In terms of him being more right wing now, I think you are just seeing the real Stephen Harper since when head of the National Citizen's Coalition and leader of Canadian Alliance he was pretty right wing.  He moderated as Conservative leader as unlike some further to the right, he had enough sense to know most Canadians aren't right wing and he believed it was better to win and move the country in the direction he wanted rather than stay ideologically pure and continuously lose.

As for NDP, I think their thinking is Liberals are usually just status quo and rarely unless forced to do anything progressive whereas NDP could actually bring in many progressive ideas and even if Conservatives won more often, it would be political suicide to undo them.  BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba all have public auto insurance and no government, even those on the right has tried to privatize it.  Likewise in most of Europe, they've had plenty of right wing governments, but none have tried to dismantle the welfare state so I think that was the thinking on the NDP side if they moved to a left/right polarization.

Anyways I believe whomever wins will be a one term wonder.  Ford is very disliked and toxic so by 2022 people will be ready to throw him out.  NDP has too many inexperienced and radical candidates and that will show thus meaning they also lose in 2022.  By contrast if the PC's lose, maybe they will finally choose a reasonable leader like Christine Elliott and win a few terms.  Likewise if NDP loses, their strong showing will mean a much stronger slate of candidates as they will be seen as a government in waiting so putting together a cabinet that is talented and capable will be a lot easier in 2022 then this time.

[136or142]

I was just wondering, not that I'm making any allegations here, is there any evidence that Forum doesn't actually even conduct polls but just sells made up numbers to media outlets that are either roughly in line with credible pollsters or going where they think real polling numbers will go, but pushed out more to the extreme in order to be sensational.

[King of Kensington]

I was just wondering, not that I'm making any allegations here, is there any evidence that Forum doesn't actually even conduct polls but just sells made up numbers to media outlets that are either roughly in line with credible pollsters or going where they think real polling numbers will go, but pushed out more to the extreme in order to be sensational.

I was polled by Forum by two days ago.

[Oryxslayer]

 Something else to remember is that Ford may be out before 2022 even if the PCs win - something I would consider likely considering how controversial the Ford's have traditionally been. This gives the PCs time to recover before 2022, if their only problem is their candidate.

The main reason why I don't think PC-NDP polarization will stick, even if the LIBs get destroyed us because this is Ontario. You need to win some parts of the city and the suburbs to win, and  those regions love their moderate leftists.

[136or142]

I was just wondering, not that I'm making any allegations here, is there any evidence that Forum doesn't actually even conduct polls but just sells made up numbers to media outlets that are either roughly in line with credible pollsters or going where they think real polling numbers will go, but pushed out more to the extreme in order to be sensational.

I was polled by Forum by two days ago.

Well, I guess we have to go to other conspiracies to explain why Forum is junk.

[mileslunn]

Something else to remember is that Ford may be out before 2022 even if the PCs win - something I would consider likely considering how controversial the Ford's have traditionally been. This gives the PCs time to recover before 2022, if their only problem is their candidate.

The main reason why I don't think PC-NDP polarization will stick, even if the LIBs get destroyed us because this is Ontario. You need to win some parts of the city and the suburbs to win, and  those regions love their moderate leftists.

Agree if Ford is problematic enough, the party will dump him far enough before the election allowing themselves to recover.  As for Liberals recovering, that depends on many things too.  If the PCs dump Ford and choose a Red Tory, they could probably win back many of the skeptical suburban voters while if the NDP moderate and become more like their prairie counterparts I could see them being competitive in even more areas.  Someone like Rachel Notley would easily be able to win in Ontario and win over many who are skeptical of the NDP.  Now someone like Horgan might have a tougher time so the Horwath or whomever their next leader is will need to be more like Notley less like Horgan if they want to win over many moderates.

[mileslunn]

I was just wondering, not that I'm making any allegations here, is there any evidence that Forum doesn't actually even conduct polls but just sells made up numbers to media outlets that are either roughly in line with credible pollsters or going where they think real polling numbers will go, but pushed out more to the extreme in order to be sensational.

I was polled by Forum by two days ago.

Well, I guess we have to go to other conspiracies to explain why Forum is junk.

Actually if you look at strictly the raw numbers the shift was pretty minor.  It was their stupid re-weighting.  It was 40% PC last week while 41% PC this week while it was 36% NDP last week vs. 34% NDP this week so shifts well within the margin of error.  Now obviously due to oversampling of older voters you have to reweight, but the reweighting this week was only a few points, similar to how Ekos and Mainstreet reweight whereas the week before the reweighting was absolute junk and even someone without a stats background could pick up on.

[136or142]

I was just wondering, not that I'm making any allegations here, is there any evidence that Forum doesn't actually even conduct polls but just sells made up numbers to media outlets that are either roughly in line with credible pollsters or going where they think real polling numbers will go, but pushed out more to the extreme in order to be sensational.

I was polled by Forum by two days ago.

Well, I guess we have to go to other conspiracies to explain why Forum is junk.

Actually if you look at strictly the raw numbers the shift was pretty minor.  It was their stupid re-weighting.  It was 40% PC last week while 41% PC this week while it was 36% NDP last week vs. 34% NDP this week so shifts well within the margin of error.  Now obviously due to oversampling of older voters you have to reweight, but the reweighting this week was only a few points, similar to how Ekos and Mainstreet reweight whereas the week before the reweighting was absolute junk and even someone without a stats background could pick up on.

Not Forum.  They went from 47-33% NDP on May 23 to 39-35% Conservative on May 29 (date of poll release).  So, a 6%  increase for the P.Cs and an 8% 12% drop for the NDP.  No other poll showed any such wild swing, and wild swings like that hardly ever occur (not without some extreme occurrence.)

If this was caused by a reweighting of their samples, that suggests to me an admission by Forum that they don't really know what they're doing.

[mileslunn]

I was just wondering, not that I'm making any allegations here, is there any evidence that Forum doesn't actually even conduct polls but just sells made up numbers to media outlets that are either roughly in line with credible pollsters or going where they think real polling numbers will go, but pushed out more to the extreme in order to be sensational.

I was polled by Forum by two days ago.

Well, I guess we have to go to other conspiracies to explain why Forum is junk.

Actually if you look at strictly the raw numbers the shift was pretty minor.  It was their stupid re-weighting.  It was 40% PC last week while 41% PC this week while it was 36% NDP last week vs. 34% NDP this week so shifts well within the margin of error.  Now obviously due to oversampling of older voters you have to reweight, but the reweighting this week was only a few points, similar to how Ekos and Mainstreet reweight whereas the week before the reweighting was absolute junk and even someone without a stats background could pick up on.

Not Forum.  They went from 47-33% NDP on May 23 to 39-35% Conservative on May 29 (date of poll release).  So, a 6%  increase for the P.Cs and an 8% drop for the NDP.  No other poll showed any such wild swing, and wild swings like that hardly ever occur (not without some extreme occurrence.)

If this was caused by a reweighting of their samples, that suggests to me an admission by Forum that they don't really know what they're doing.

The Numbers I gave were the raw numbers, not the one's they published, but yeah shows they do like sensational headlines if they are reweighting like that.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

What’s odd is it seems Mainstreet is the only one that claims the Liberals are increasing while most of the other pollsters have them stagnant or falling.

[King of Kensington]

The main reason why I don't think PC-NDP polarization will stick, even if the LIBs get destroyed us because this is Ontario. You need to win some parts of the city and the suburbs to win, and  those regions love their moderate leftists.

The 905 seems to be fatally weak for the NDP.  It's different from the Lower Mainland suburbs of Vancouver where the NDP is competitive.

Of course it's hard to see a Ford-type party being a "natural governing party" in Ontario, BC or even Alberta.

[Krago]

I was just wondering, not that I'm making any allegations here, is there any evidence that Forum doesn't actually even conduct polls but just sells made up numbers to media outlets that are either roughly in line with credible pollsters or going where they think real polling numbers will go, but pushed out more to the extreme in order to be sensational.

I was polled by Forum by two days ago.

Well, I guess we have to go to other conspiracies to explain why Forum is junk.

Here's a Forum poll for Spadina-Fort York from the 2015 federal election.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Spadina-Fort%20York%20News%20Release%20(2015%2008%2006)%208311%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Go to page 3, and check out the 18-34 demographic, both the sample size and the candidate data.  I can't believe that a reputable pollster would publish this.

[Krago]

More LIUNA riding polls:

http://liunalocal183.ca/News/ViewArticle/tabid/70/ArticleId/289/LIUNA-COMMISSIONED-POLLS-SHOW-WYNNE-DEL-DUCA-LIBERALS-PAYING-PRICE-FOR-ANTI-LIUNA-BUDGET.aspx

All 14 ridings show a lead for the Tories.

Aurora Oak Ridges Richmond Hill: PC 45%, NDP 27%, Lib 16%
Brampton Centre: PC 45%, NDP 33%, Lib 13%
Brampton North: PC 42%, NDP 30%, Lib 17%
Brampton South: PC 37%, NDP 34%, Lib 20%
Etobicoke North: PC 49%, NDP 19%, Lib 21%
Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas: PC 42%, NDP 38%, Lib 12%
Markham Thornhill: PC 38%, NDP 27%, Lib 21%
Mississauga Erin Mills: PC 42%, NDP 26%, Lib 21%
Mississauga Lakeshore: PC 49%, NDP 24%, Lib 19%
Oakville North Burlington: PC 38%, NDP 27%, Lib 17%
Scarborough Centre: PC 48%, NDP 25%, Lib 15%
Scarborough North: PC 45%, NDP 21%, Lib 23%
Vaughan–Woodbridge: PC 54%, NDP 18%, Lib 19%
York Centre: PC 48%, NDP 24%, Lib 17%

[Hatman 🍁]

those polls are much junkier than Mainstreet's.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Hatman are you starting to see a similar OLP rebound as Mainstreet is seeing over the last couple of days?

[Krago]

Hatman are you starting to see a similar OLP rebound as Mainstreet is seeing over the last couple of days?

Frank Graves‏ @VoiceOfFranky 
Replying to @quito_maggi @russianbot3001

We also see OLP rebound . Just not sure it means much at this stage

7:16 PM - 31 May 2018

[King of Kensington]

More LIUNA riding polls:

http://liunalocal183.ca/News/ViewArticle/tabid/70/ArticleId/289/LIUNA-COMMISSIONED-POLLS-SHOW-WYNNE-DEL-DUCA-LIBERALS-PAYING-PRICE-FOR-ANTI-LIUNA-BUDGET.aspx

All 14 ridings show a lead for the Tories.

Aurora Oak Ridges Richmond Hill: PC 45%, NDP 27%, Lib 16%
Brampton Centre: PC 45%, NDP 33%, Lib 13%
Brampton North: PC 42%, NDP 30%, Lib 17%
Brampton South: PC 37%, NDP 34%, Lib 20%
Etobicoke North: PC 49%, NDP 19%, Lib 21%
Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas: PC 42%, NDP 38%, Lib 12%
Markham Thornhill: PC 38%, NDP 27%, Lib 21%
Mississauga Erin Mills: PC 42%, NDP 26%, Lib 21%
Mississauga Lakeshore: PC 49%, NDP 24%, Lib 19%
Oakville North Burlington: PC 38%, NDP 27%, Lib 17%
Scarborough Centre: PC 48%, NDP 25%, Lib 15%
Scarborough North: PC 45%, NDP 21%, Lib 23%
Vaughan–Woodbridge: PC 54%, NDP 18%, Lib 19%
York Centre: PC 48%, NDP 24%, Lib 17%

I agree that the Liberals are losing big time in all those ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Small shifts happening, but yes- unfortunately. Rationally, I don't think this will amount to much, but emotionally I'm panicking.  

[_]

The NDP still seem to have the momentum going into the final week, even with the small Liberal bounce.  I believe at the end of the day it's going to be a nailbiter on Election Night, but the NDP will pull out a majority.

[adma]

Was the Mike Harris of 1990 basically the same Harris of 1995?  Or did he recast himself from a more "mainstream" PC to the Common Sense Revolutionary he became known for?

It was a sort of stripped-down, bare-bones preview of the CSR, hinging upon Harris being the "Taxfighter".  And it did achieve limited success--limited mainly by the lack of money in the Tory election coffers and the spillover federal Mulroney stink; but it did establish a distinct "profile" for the party, distinct both from the Feds and from the hollow shell the party had been after the 1987 Grossman disaster...

[adma]

I have a hypothesis that the geography of PC support will be less "Ford Nation" and more the PCs doing well where they traditionally do well when they get strong support across the province. I think Ford has been a disappointment during the campaign and the coalition of low income multiethnic people who supported his brother en masse are starting to realize that Doug is not Rob and that in fact he is very much a traditional Tory

As I've been saying: Andrea's been in many ways better at being Rob-like than Doug is.

[adma]

Leaving aside Etobicoke North where Doug is actually on the ballot, I think of Scarborough-Agincourt as the "first to fall" among seats in Toronto to the PCs, as it is both "Ford Nation" enough and Conservative enough (and the NDP has no chance).

York Centre as well, falls into the both Ford Nation and Conservative enough.

And interestingly, either seat would *not* have been deemed "Conservative enough" a generation ago--both evaded the Common Sense Revolution.  (What happened is that the Jewish and then the Chinese electorates swung dramatically right.)

Also, York Centre is only half "Ford Nation enough" (i.e. going for Doug over John Tory for the mayoralty), while Scarborough-Agincourt was totally Ford.

[adma]

If the PCs won 110 seats, Parkdale-High Park wouldn't be one of them.

But going by signage, I agree with the once-implausible hypothesis that they could leapfrog the Libs for second...

[adma]

I mean no offense by this but some of you should consider restraining yourselves from posting ill-advised hot takes. The PC's are polling 5-7% higher than their 2014 result at the provincial level. The NDP are polling nearly 20% higher than their 2014 result at the provinicial level. If you're questioning the NDP's ability to hold onto Parkdale or Trinity-Spadina, you're questioning whether they'll crack 30%. If you think that the PC's could surge in both ridings, you're wondering whether the PC's will come close to 45%. This is wildly inconsistent with polling.

One thing you have to realize, though: just because we're commenting on PC sign presence doesn't mean we're predicting they'll win.  Just that they'll outperform expectations.

And really: when you're a hardcore psephologist like many of us are, even the "losing" numbers in each riding and polling station are meaningful, whether as barometers or cultural/social indicators or guidelines for future campaigns, etc.  So it's a little more "involved", and subtle, than a matter of "ill-advised hot takes".