The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[ConservativeIllini]

Michigan:

45% Approve
54% Disapprove

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/misc?URL=/templates/ArticleMultiMediaPopup.pbs&dato=20100226&lopenr=100226061&Category=NEWS15&Params=Id=152672

[ConservativeIllini]

Oklahoma

38% Approve
62% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/oklahoma/election_2010_oklahoma_senate

[ConservativeIllini]

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

    * Strongly approve 27% {25%} [27%] (29%)
    * Somewhat approve 9% {16%} [14%] (15%)
    * Somewhat disapprove 8% {7%} [10%] (8%)
    * Strongly disapprove 55% {50%} [48%] (46%)

Appears to be 36/63 to me

[ConservativeIllini]

Gallup has been ridiculous with wild swings lately, I really don't understand it.  About 4 days ago, he was at 52/41...

[ConservativeIllini]

Gallup's latest today

46% approve
46% disapprove

[ConservativeIllini]

That's because Rasmussen polls what its likely voter model, which always tends to skew Republican.  I'd say ~45% is right in Nevada, but what the hell do I know

[ConservativeIllini]

Yea, I'd say get rid of any 2009 polls for sure.

[ConservativeIllini]

Gallup

47% approve (-2)

48% disapprove (+2)

[ConservativeIllini]

The -3 net has to be his lowest approval to date on Gallup, correct?

[ConservativeIllini]

Per Quinnipiac, Obama back at positive approval in Florida

50% approve

45% disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1446

[ConservativeIllini]

Rasmussen in North Carolina

41% approve

57% disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/north_carolina/election_2010_north_carolina_senate

[ConservativeIllini]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% u

Disapprove 52% u

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

It is critical that the GOP not continue to lose seats.  Such would sound the death knell for that party.  

I'd be willing to give you 10-1 odds on $50 that the GOP doesn't lose seats in the midterms.  Yes, most elections will be competitive, but it looks likely the GOP will pick up 20 seats at a minimum.

And if you think Demint is going to lose, you're just plain wrong.

[ConservativeIllini]

Rasmussen in my home state of Illinois

61% approve
39% disapprove


And Rasmussen in Delaware

54% approve
46% disapprove

[ConservativeIllini]

What is with the now-dissipated bounce on Gallup?  He went from -3 approval to +7 in about a week, and is now back down to about even.  Am I reading too much into that, or does it seem like more than statistical noise?

[ConservativeIllini]

Nevada (Las-Vegas Review Journal)

39-55

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/July_30_2010_1.html

[ConservativeIllini]

North Carolina Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

24% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
48% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure



PPP had 46%; Rasmussen has 42%. Within two days by reputable and different pollsters, so an average.

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

34% Strongly approve
22% Somewhat approve
  7% Somewhat disapprove
34% Strongly disapprove

I do not average polls by the same pollster; the latter one takes precedence.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call  35
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  44
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  41
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 127


44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Why is NC white on your map?

[ConservativeIllini]

Gallup just updated

41% approve (-1)
52% disapprove (+1)

Definitely not just statistical noise from ~46% anymore

[ConservativeIllini]

46% in Alaska from Rass, 44% from PPP and 40% from the NSRC pollster.

Incredible.

Maybe not; these all might be in MOE.

Obama got only 37.9% of the vote in Alaska, and it's hard to believe that the VP choice is worth more than about 4%.  Kerry got 35.5% of the vote there in 2004; Gore got 27.7% of the vote there in 2000 (but Ralph Nader got 10% of the vote),  so Alaska seems to be drifting D if recent polls are correct -- including the 40% approval. With respect to the rest of America?

Good findings here.  I hadn't noticed, but it could just be a trend toward Dems in Alaska over the long term.  That, along with the national unpopularity of a certain well-known Republican from the state, could be enough to hasten the movement towards Dems.

[ConservativeIllini]

PPP Ohio

41% Approve
54% Disapprove

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/portman-takes-lead.html

[ConservativeIllini]

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted September 1, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       29% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       47% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

Changes only a letter.

Washington State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 31, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    31% Strongly approve
    17% Somewhat approve
      9% Somewhat disapprove
    41% Strongly disapprove
      2% Not sure

Changes nothing.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                   
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  135
white                        too close to call  23
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%    23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  6
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   143 


44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

[/quote]

Shouldn't WA be yellow?

[ConservativeIllini]

......

Same meaning, but it even looks better (esthetically, if not politically).

Ah yes! Much better. Although I think your electoral predictions are a bit basic..

The rules are rigid, but they must be to be reasonable. Most reasonable polls, which is now down to Rasmussen and Quinnipiac. PPP seems to have gone over-cautious on the R side, apparently because the left-wing Daily Kos has it and had trouble with its prior pollster for being too favorable to Democrats.

Regarding PPP, the reasoning could be that it recently switched over to polling likely voters for the midterm elections as opposed to its normal registered voters (or perhaps its adults, not entirely sure).  Regardless, that's bound to favor Republicans in a year such as this in which the R base is fired up to vote.