GOP Dark Horses that can come out of nowhere, and win big

[CARLHAYDEN]

Allen is as likely to get the nomination as any.

Wouldn't classify him as a 'dark horse.'

[CARLHAYDEN]

If you want to have a REAl dark horse, I suggest Representative Tancredo.

The fight in the GOP about dealing with illegal immigration is really becoming nasty.

The corporate types are stealing a page from John C. Calhoun and insisting with increasing boldness that illegal immigration is a positive good, and should NOT be stopped, merely legalized.

Most of the opponents of illegal immigration stand on principle, and note that terrorists can also easily slip into the United States illegally as our southern border is inadequately policied.

The corporate types note they are outnumbered and are getting very nasty.  They don't want to lose their source of cheap labor, including illegal nannies.

[CARLHAYDEN]

You thought the Dems were going to have a pretty strong cycle in 2004.

I did not

I said the GOP would pick up 3 seats net in the Senate, that the House would be essentially unchanged, andf that Bush would get elected "By about a field goal"

The GOP picked up 4 in the senate and a handful in the House, and Bush won by somehwre between a safety and a Field goal...

I don't think the House will move much in 2006 - that body is SOOOOOO gerrymandered it is hard to imagine much movement at all....

Did you know in 2004 on NINE House race in the entire county were decide by less than 5%, only 18 had a margin less than 10%

417/435 races were 10%+ races...

scary actually....

The Senate will be interesting...  The Dems have more seats up, but the GOP might be in a bit more trouble..

Safe Dems

Akaka, Daniel - (D - HI) 
Bingaman, Jeff - (D - NM)
Carper, Thomas - (D - DE)
Clinton, Hillary - (D - NY) 
Conrad, Kent - (D - ND) 
Corzine, Jon - (D - NJ) 
Dayton, Mark - (D - MN) 
Feinstein, Dianne - (D - CA)
Jeffords, James - (I - VT) (Defacto Dem seat)
Kennedy, Edward - (D - MA) 
Kohl, Herb - (D - WI)
Lieberman, Joseph - (D - CT)

Nelson, Ben - (D - NE) - It is Nebraska, so the GOP always has a shot, but Nelson should get a solid though likely not crushing win.

Sarbanes, Paul - (D - MD) - Sarbanes is retiring, so it's a open seat...  which give the GOP about the same shot a Muslim has of become Pope...

Safe GOP
 
Allen, George - (R - VA) 
Burns, Conrad - (R - MT) 
DeWine, Mike - (R - OH) 
Ensign, John - (R - NV)

Frist, Bill - (R - TN) - Frist is retiring to run for President, GOP still has the edge

Hatch, Orrin - (R - UT)
Hutchison, Kay - (R - TX)
Kyl, Jon - (R - AZ)
Lott, Trent - (R - MS)
Lugar, Richard - (R - IN)
Thomas, Craig - (R - WY)

Possible GOP Pickups

Byrd, Robert - (D - WV)  - If Byrd is both a) alive and b) a candidate he wins in a walk, but a & b are hardly givens.  Without Byrd WV would have a mild GOP lean for the Senate seat.

Cantwell, Maria - (D - WA)  - Cantwell is, at best, a middle of the pack Senator, and (presumably) Dino Rossi will have sympathy, name recognition, a ton of money and a Gore2000 like "we was robbed" intensity - This seat is a barn burner - too close to call.

Nelson, Bill - (D - FL) - Lackluster victory in 2000 against a very ordinary GOP candidate, GOP is targeting this seat

Stabenow, Debbie - (D - MI) An 'adaquate" candidate in a mildly Dem leaning state so she has a edge, but not a huge one.  A "B+" or better GOP candidate with enough money has a shot..
 
Possible Dem Pickups
 
Chafee, Lincoln - (R - RI)  A (nominally)GOP candidate in Rhode Island is by definition vulnerable

Snowe, Olympia - (R - ME) - See Rhode Island, just less so... Snowe is a very good Senator and should win, but don't expect it to be 20 points..

Talent, James - (R - MO)  - Good Senator and great logistics.  Race will be close however.
 
Santorum, Rick - (R - PA)  - The most likely (IMHO) Dem Pickup.  To say Santorum is a "target" is like saying Hitler has issues with anger management...  On a dollars per vote basis, this may be the most expensive election in the history of the Mid-west..

Casey will likely edge him out for a modest victory, say 52 / 48 or so...
 

I must respectfully disagree concerning Bingaman and Conrad (especially Conrad).

It all depends on the candidates the Republicans have in those races.