538 Update Thread

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Can't wait to see today's update. It should show some really nice shifts.

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ka-BOOM, baby! That's a sweet day. Hopefully the trackers tomorrow will give more confidence to the lasting effect here, though.

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Hopefully this nice, slow movement towards Obama for the last week is a suggestion that the race is  slowly moving towards an 'indifferent' incumbent retention/"well, the challenger's losing" environment.

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Obama had a huge bump today for some reason, up to a 77.4% chance to win. Maybe because Gallup wasn't in today?

SUSA had Obama up 3 in OH and CBS/NYT had Obama+1 nationally. My guess is the former is the shifter.

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Didn't bump much actually, I'm guessing that FL polls dampened things, especially since today's polls were more confirmations of leads rather than growing ones (remember, unlike parts of this site, Silver has had Wisconsin over 85% for a while now. Polls there don't move the needle much). Obama is just shy of 300 EVs in the average now though, at a 1.9% PV lead, and 78% chance of victory.

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Nate re-ran the numbers at 1:00 am, and now it's:

Obama-300.4 EVs, 79% chance to win, no change in PV (still 50.5-48.6%)

I believe he added the Marist polls. Gravis' 4 point Obama lead in VA isn't in this.

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Another day, another bump for the President. A slew of polls (and another day off the calendar for the challenger) shifted the % chance of victory to 80.8-19.2, Romney's lowest numbers since the 6th of October. Furthermore, the PV projection is now 50.5-48.5, sending Obama for the first time in weeks back to a full 2 point lead there. VA and CO are at ~65%, IA at 79%, OH at 80%, NV at 87%, WI 91% (and PA 96%).

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And on the 30th (closest it gave me to the 1st), it was 95.5-4.5. Understandably, we aren't seeing quite those numbers today.

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No news is good news for Obama, as the odds improve slightly to 81.4-18.6. A 1/10th drop in the PV for Romney has the gap at 2.1 (now nearly eclipsing the MOE of +/-2.2), 50.5 to 48.4. OH numbers (especially Rassy's surrender to a tie now) and Ipsos' improvements across the board in swing states probably are the driving factors of the improvement. OH now 81%, still basically identical with Obama's chance of winning the whole kit-and-caboodle.

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New Hampshire and Iowa have joined the 80% club. 

Obama has at least 4:1 odds to win states totaling 281 EVs

And is 2:1 in an additional 22 EVs.

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No news is good news for Obama, as the odds improve slightly to 81.4-18.6. A 1/10th drop in the PV for Romney has the gap at 2.1 (now nearly eclipsing the MOE of +/-2.2), 50.5 to 48.4. OH numbers (especially Rassy's surrender to a tie now) and Ipsos' improvements across the board in swing states probably are the driving factors of the improvement. OH now 81%, still basically identical with Obama's chance of winning the whole kit-and-caboodle.

If those are Obama's chances, we're talking the first freeze and the first snowfall in hell.

Typos....

Err, sorry? Left to right/Obama v. Romney percentages is how Silver always portrays the numbers. Thus, 81.4% to 18.6% in favor of Obama. If anything, I technically misused the word "odds", but otherwise what was the typo (it indeed may well be there and I'm just missing it, not trying to be smart)?

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No news is good news for Obama, as the odds improve slightly to 81.4-18.6. A 1/10th drop in the PV for Romney has the gap at 2.1 (now nearly eclipsing the MOE of +/-2.2), 50.5 to 48.4. OH numbers (especially Rassy's surrender to a tie now) and Ipsos' improvements across the board in swing states probably are the driving factors of the improvement. OH now 81%, still basically identical with Obama's chance of winning the whole kit-and-caboodle.

If those are Obama's chances, we're talking the first freeze and the first snowfall in hell.

Typos....

Err, sorry? Left to right/Obama v. Romney percentages is how Silver always portrays the numbers. Thus, 81.4% to 18.6% in favor of Obama. If anything, I technically misused the word "odds", but otherwise what was the typo (it indeed may well be there and I'm just missing it, not trying to be smart)?

I thought you trying to say it increased from 81.4% to 81.6%  I got you now!

Ah, very good! Sorry bout that!

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A very good Nate's analysis.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/

Nate's very aware of what his numbers mean in relation to the polling and that his method gives a projection and are not his predicted "winner." If only others could see that...

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Montana has a higher chance of going Obama than North Carolina now?!

It's simply a mistake. None of the polls show any sign of that. PPP last polled there according to Silver on the 16th and had 53-43 Romney.

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After fixing MT and including the last few polls of the evening, Obama actually increased his lead, and pushed Romney's odds under 15% for the first time since the temporary Sept 30th-Oct 4th bottoming out (85.1-14.9). PV projection now 50.6-48.3.

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Said on twitter that this isn't his last run of the numbers tonight, so stay tuned as they add the last few polls, etc.

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AWall, man, if you will have nailed this election as long ago as you started publishing that map of yours, you will have surely earned top-shelf kudos.

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This late Obama bump is awesome news, but I don't exactly get what prompted it. Did we get a streak of great polls for Obama today?

More confirmation in OH+Rassy shows Obama up in NH+Angus(I think?) poll out of WI+1.5% bounce in national polls+no more time for any surprises/last minute shifts?


I agree the shift seems large even so, but especially with those national numbers, he must be sensing the momentum and the calculation must be taking that into account for this to be the number, really.