TX-SEN: True to Form

[Gass3268]

That's a lot of money in one month:

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/997478904578433024

Ok yeah Beto is definitely going to beat Cruz in money, question is if his message will resonate in the Suburbs of TX.

He will do better than Hillary in the suburbs/urban areas of TX. The question is how much better? Rural TX is probably not swinging much at all to Beto given how polarized it is (it isn't like rural WI).

Beto is likely winning the money race for money going directly to candidates, but will definitely loose the outside expenditures, by a lot especially since he refuses pac money. Outside spending is signifigant for TV advertisements.

I mean Ann Kirkpatrick outraged John McCain a for a couple financial quarters from what I remember(which should not have happened given McCain's name rec and prestige) however McCain got tons in outside spending, he's outside groups spent something like 10 million against Kelli Ward to paint her as a conspiracist.

At some point it does not matter. Connor Lamb was out spent in his race 2-1, but it was almost 50-50 parity on what was aired due to laws that give candidates discounts and other advantages.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Boooo

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/997651281966718977

[UWS]

Boooo

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/997651281966718977

I'm wondering which poll source it will be because its accuracy surely depends on it if it takes so long before publishing it.

[Young Conservative]

Maybe they are waiting because they want to check the status after the shooting?

[The Mikado]

I will say it's super-weird that I haven't seen a single yardsign or bumper sticker for Lyin' Ted even when driving around really Republican areas. Every GOP sign is either for Trump, House candidates, or some local judge.

[Theodore]

I will say it's super-weird that I haven't seen a single yardsign or bumper sticker for Lyin' Ted even when driving around really Republican areas. Every GOP sign is either for Trump, House candidates, or some local judge.

He's probably waiting until Labor Day to start campaigning there's no need to start campaigning this early when you are already the incumbent

[UWS]

I will say it's super-weird that I haven't seen a single yardsign or bumper sticker for Lyin' Ted even when driving around really Republican areas. Every GOP sign is either for Trump, House candidates, or some local judge.

He's probably waiting until Labor Day to start campaigning there's no need to start campaigning this early when you are already the incumbent

So it gives enough time for O’Rourke to campaign in all the four corners of Texas and to connect with voters. So I guess such a move by Ted Cruz could be suicidal.

[Boobs]

I will say it's super-weird that I haven't seen a single yardsign or bumper sticker for Lyin' Ted even when driving around really Republican areas. Every GOP sign is either for Trump, House candidates, or some local judge.

Back home, in TX-03, I’ve yet to see any signs for Cruz, Abbott, or Van Taylor, but I’ve seen a few for Lorie Burch *and* Sam Johnson (a Democrat in the runoff, not the incumbent Representative) and a few for Beto. My precinct voted for Trump by a convincing (but weaker than 2012) margin.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/998899223402860545

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Beto losing by >10 would qualify as surprising. Or Cruz tying with Hispanics.

(Yes I'm prepared for the worst.)

[Oryxslayer]

I will say it's super-weird that I haven't seen a single yardsign or bumper sticker for Lyin' Ted even when driving around really Republican areas. Every GOP sign is either for Trump, House candidates, or some local judge.

Back home, in TX-03, I’ve yet to see any signs for Cruz, Abbott, or Van Taylor, but I’ve seen a few for Lorie Burch *and* Sam Johnson (a Democrat in the runoff, not the incumbent Representative) and a few for Beto. My precinct voted for Trump by a convincing (but weaker than 2012) margin.

Well TX-03 is a open seat, so no surprise you won't see incumbent signs.


Also, I'm going to suspect the surprise is high numbers on gun control. The poll went back into the field post-shooting, so they could have polled peoples reaction to that.

[The Mikado]

Beto losing by >10 would qualify as surprising. Or Cruz tying with Hispanics.

(Yes I'm prepared for the worst.)

Cruz only beat a nobody who didn't campaign by 16 points, in a relatively neutral year when TX was considerably more Republican than it currently is. Cruz isn't beating an actual opponent who is matching his fundraising and campaigning all over the state by 10+ this year.

I don't think Beto wins, but I have his performance range at -6 +-2...that is to say, I think he loses by somewhere between 4 (in a phenomenal Democratic night) and 8 points, and I expect the result to be right around losing by 6.

[The Mikado]

Well TX-03 is a open seat, so no surprise you won't see incumbent signs.

The preceding poster meant that one of the Dems in the runoff in TX-03, Sam Johnson (who just lost), shared the same name as the many-term GOP incumbent there, Sam Johnson, who is retiring this year.

[IceSpear]

Beto losing by >10 would qualify as surprising. Or Cruz tying with Hispanics.

(Yes I'm prepared for the worst.)

Cruz only beat a nobody who didn't campaign by 16 points, in a relatively neutral year when TX was considerably more Republican than it currently is. Cruz isn't beating an actual opponent who is matching his fundraising and campaigning all over the state by 10+ this year.

I don't think Beto wins, but I have his performance range at -6 +-2...that is to say, I think he loses by somewhere between 4 (in a phenomenal Democratic night) and 8 points, and I expect the result to be right around losing by 6.

Yeah, people seem to forget that Cruz's margin against a some dude with no money wasn't exactly impressive. And this was before Cruz was as hated by Democrats and relatively disliked among independents as he is now.

[cp]

Surprised no one posted the actual poll:

Cruz 47, Beto 40

From what I can gather this is quite impressive for Beto but not 'Scott Walker "we need to wake up"' impressive. If this was TN or CO or another more elastic state I'd be willing to say Beto is within striking distance. As this is Texas, however, I can't help but think that even a perfect storm would leave Beto 3-4 points short; not because he's somehow inadequate, more because those last few points are particularly sticky for a Texas Dem.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Surprised no one posted the actual poll:

Cruz 47, Beto 40

From what I can gather this is quite impressive for Beto but not 'Scott Walker "we need to wake up"' impressive. If this was TN or CO or another more elastic state I'd be willing to say Beto is within striking distance. As this is Texas, however, I can't help but think that even a perfect storm would leave Beto 3-4 points short; not because he's somehow inadequate, more because those last few points are particularly sticky for a Texas Dem.

TN is one of the most inelastic states in the country; Bredesen is just that strong a candidate.  Bredesen is extremely popular with old, rural white voters who were blue-dogs until 2010 or so.

[cp]

... which would indicate a degree of elasticity, no?

I'm not going to die on this hill. You're right that there are more elastic states than TN, though one wonders if the upheavals of the past few years (AL-Sen, 2016 Pres in MI/PA) indicate a need a redefine just what we consider 'in/elastic' in the first place.

[JG]

Surprised no one posted the actual poll:

Cruz 47, Beto 40

From what I can gather this is quite impressive for Beto but not 'Scott Walker "we need to wake up"' impressive. If this was TN or CO or another more elastic state I'd be willing to say Beto is within striking distance. As this is Texas, however, I can't help but think that even a perfect storm would leave Beto 3-4 points short; not because he's somehow inadequate, more because those last few points are particularly sticky for a Texas Dem.

According to a 2012 538 article, Texas and Tennessee are very close in term of elasticity and they are middle of the road compared to the rest of the states. Of course, this may have changed in the past few years.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/swing-voters-and-elastic-states/

[junior chįmp]

Lying Ted Cruz up to his old tricks again:

https://www.twitter.com/TexanTruth42/status/1000838395898232832

[Politician]

Lyin Ted is trying to give O'Rourke a chance.

[JG]

Lying Ted Cruz up to his old tricks again:

https://www.twitter.com/TexanTruth42/status/1000838395898232832

Is it me or it's a terrible strategy to get people to fund your campaign?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lying Ted Cruz up to his old tricks again:

https://www.twitter.com/TexanTruth42/status/1000838395898232832

Is it me or it's a terrible strategy to get people to fund your campaign?

Nobody likes to receive mail that says "summons".  If I got something like that, it would incline me against voting for whoever sent it (regardless of their party).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lying Ted Cruz up to his old tricks again:

https://www.twitter.com/TexanTruth42/status/1000838395898232832

Is it me or it's a terrible strategy to get people to fund your campaign?

Nobody likes to receive mail that says "summons".  If I got something like that, it would incline me against voting for whoever sent it (regardless of their party).

This

[KingSweden]

Lying Ted Cruz up to his old tricks again:

https://www.twitter.com/TexanTruth42/status/1000838395898232832

Is it me or it's a terrible strategy to get people to fund your campaign?

Nobody likes to receive mail that says "summons".  If I got something like that, it would incline me against voting for whoever sent it (regardless of their party).

This

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lying Ted Cruz up to his old tricks again:

https://www.twitter.com/TexanTruth42/status/1000838395898232832

Is it me or it's a terrible strategy to get people to fund your campaign?

Everything about Ted Cruz is terrible.