Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.
No, actually. He has working class appeal in PA08, which is how he survived in 2020. I'd say the district is likely to safe Republican (and probably closer to the latter) should Cartwright retire and a tossup with him. On the other hand it all depends on how the district is reconfigured; it Cartwright is in new territory, he might not have as much appeal (but then I imagine he'd run in the district that includes most of his former territory) Basically what recoveringdemocrat said:
Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.
Come on, you know this isn't true. First of all, it depends on the lines. But more importantly, you cannot in good faith say that this incumbent who regularly over-performs has *the same chance of winning* as a generic Democratic candidate. I'm not saying he's the favorite or anything like that; I agree he's an underdog for reelection, but "[same rating] with or without him" is just a pretty ridiculous comment regardless of what the actual rating is.