2022 French legislatives

[MRCVzla]

Some controversy has brought about the final grid of "nuances" or labels that the French Interior Ministry classifies the parties and various factions of the political spectrum (aka the ones that will appear in the official results), as the label of the coalition of the presidential majority "Ensemble !" is included (at first there were only the "nuances" of LREM, Modem and the other allies were mixed in the "divers center"), but not that of the left-wing coalition NUPES, possibly because it was not submitted to the Ministry in time.

This would be a problem when reading the overall results of the coalition, as it is divided between the "nuances" of the LFI, PCF, PS, a large part of the ecologists (EELV, GE, LND...) and also in several "divers gauche" (along with the dissidents and other left-wing independents), the regionalist allies in the DTOM or also in the "divers" of far-left (POI), while the entire Macronist presidential majority will be classified under a single label.

Members of the NUPES coalition have already expressed complaints and it is rumored that they would denounce to the Council of State the exclusion of the unitary label (which probably will not go very far)

https://twitter.com/2022Elections/status/1526501006871351296

The candidates of the New Popular Union (#NUPES) denounce the absence of their label on the grid of nuances of the Ministry of the Interior, a choice which could minimize the score of the alliance.

That of “Together! » is there she is present.

[MRCVzla]

Electoral silence now, today will vote in 1st round the DOM-TOMs from the Americas (Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyane, Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin).

Final Ipsos poll (estimated turnout around 45-49%)



Final Cluster17 poll


Final Elabe poll



Final Harris poll



Final OpinionWay poll



Final Ifop poll (estimated turnout 46%)



Results/candidate list page updated with the Council of State decision in favour of a NUPES nuance (called "NUP", dissidents from PCF, LFI or PS are going between the DXG or DVG nuances)
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2022/index.html

[MRCVzla]

Is it possible to get a breakdown of the 11 NUPES dissidents? Ie are they mostly ex-Socialist Party MP’s or something else?

There's at least one PCF dissident, in the 11th district of Seine-Saint-Denis. Not sure if there are others.

There is other PCF dissident also in Seine-Saint-Denis (4th district)
According Le Monde data, the list of districts where "divers gauche" and/or PS dissidents qualified to 2° round in the "métropole" is:
Leading:
Charente-Maritime 1st (Olivier Falorni, PRG incumbent)
Gers 2nd
Meurthe-et-Moselle 5th (Dominique Potier, incumbent originally endorsed by NUPES)
Pyrénées-Atlantiques 3th (David Habib, incumbent, Ensemble not fielded a candidate in this district)
Qualified in 2° place:
Ariège 2nd
Nord 3th
Pas-de-Calais 8th
Paris 15th (Lamia El Aaraje)
Qualified in 3° place (triangulaire):
Lot 2nd

Plus incumbents Hervé Saulignac (Ardèche 1st) and Joël Aviragnet (Haute-Garonne 8th) who also were dis-endorsed by the NUPES.

[MRCVzla]

Summary (so far) of the new Caucus group leaders, as expected, the NUPES will split 4 groups (LFI, GDR, Socialist and Ecologist) and Ensemble will do the same into 3 (Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons) plus own groups for LR and RN as well...

LFI: Mathilde Panot (Val de Marne 10th, incumbent group president)
GDR*: André Chassaigne (Puy-de-Dôme 5th, incumbent group president)
Socialist: Boris Vallaud (Landes 3rd)
Ecologist: Cyrielle Chatelain (Isère 2nd) and Julien Bayou (Paris 5th)
Renaissance: Aurore Bergé (Yvelines 10th)
MoDem: Jean-Paul Mattei (Pyrénées-Atlantiques 2nd)
Horizons: Laurent Marcangeli (Corse-du-Sud 1st)
LR: Olivier Marleix (Eure-et-Loir 2nd)
RN: Marine "Panzergirl" Le Pen (Pas-de-Calais 11th)

*Democratic and Republican Left (12 PCF+3 Réunion MPs+3 Tavini polynesian MPs so far)
In the cases of Renaissance, MoDem and the Republicans, the group leadership was disputed (in the case of Renaissance, Bergé needed a 2° round to be proclaimed), meanwhile in the rest of groups, the caucus leader (in the case of the Ecologist Pole, two) was proclaimed by acclamation.

Pending is the potential reemplacement of the "Liberties and Territories" group, likely called UTILE (Ultramarin, Territoires, Insularité, Liberté), with many of the overseas/left-wing dissidents/non NUPES MPs plus metro regionalists MPs (like Molac and the Corsicans), among others. Socialist dissident David Habib was also searching to form a similar group of non NUPES centre-left MPs, may this will be (?)
https://twitter.com/Sergemassau/status/1539595562181447686

Overseas minister Yaël Braun-Pivet (Yvelines 5th) has been designated by the Ensemble' groups as their candidate in the next week Speaker vote (June 28th), the groups are properly formed later that day.

[MRCVzla]

Opening session of the legislature was today, as expected, Yaël Braun-Pivet (Renaissance) has been elected the first female Speaker ever of the National Assembly, she resigned from their ministerial post in the weekend in order to assume the France' 4th highest office.
Speaker, 1st round (majority: 277)
Yaël Braun-Pivet (Renaissance-Ensemble) 238
Fatiha Keloua-Hachi (PS-Nupes) 146
Sébastien Chenu (RN) 90
Annie Genevard (LR) 61
Nathalie Bassire (LIOT*) 18

Chenu retired in 2nd round as their bloc not having enough votes to win, so the majority number was lowered enough to Braun-Pivet being elected with simple majority.
Speaker, 2nd round (majority: 232)
Yaël Braun-Pivet (Renaissance-Ensemble) 242 (elected)
Fatiha Keloua-Hachi (PS-Nupes) 144
Annie Genevard (LR) 60
Nathalie Bassire (LIOT*) 16

Between Tuesday and Wednesday is being elected the bureau of the Assembly and the "questeurs", as well the parliamentary commisions. All eyes are on the so-called "prestigeous" Finance commission who in recent time, the presidential majority in power leaves to the main opposition group. Jean-Philippe Tanguy will be the RN candidate meanwhile the Nupes intergroup designed Eric Coquerel (LFI) as their candidate over Valérie Rabault (PS), LR also has is own candidate with Véronique Louwagie. The election will be secret voting, so is uncertain what bloc will control this commission.

Parliamentary groups standings:
Renaissance: 172
Rassemblement National: 89
La France Insoumise-NUPES: 75
Les Républicains: 62
Democrats (MoDem and independents): 48
Socialists-Nupes: 31
Horizons: 30
Ecologists-Nupes: 23
GDR-Nupes: 22
LIOT*: 16
Non inscrits: 9

All 4 Nupes groups will have the alliance name incorporate in their groups, and as in the speaker election or the mentioned Finance commission election, will have common candidates in the rest of posts.

*LIOT stands for Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories, is the spiritual succesor of the Liberties and Territories AND the UDI group, composed by the Corsican nationalists, Paul Molac, the remains of UDI and Les Centristes and other divers droite (like Bassire from Réunion or the Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon and Mayotte right-wing independents) and divers centre (macronists dissidents or apparentés) like Olivier Serva or Paul Mathiasin. Bertrand Pancher (right-wing radicaux) and Christophe Naegelen (UDI) are the caucus co-presidents.

[MRCVzla]

Changes in the government were announced yesterday and made official today, three important things: the MeTooed Damien Abad is out, Olivier Véran reemplaces Olivia Grégoire as spokeperson while the Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin has been prized adding the competences of the Overseas Ministry left by the newly elected Speaker Braun-Pivet. Macronist partners MoDem and Horizons will have each one 4 and 2 ministers.


PM Borne' Declaration of General Policy will be tomorrow Wednesday 6th, and a vote about it (confidence motion) will not be held by initiative of the government, Borne is the 4th PM in not to do it, the other 3 were the Socialists PMs under Mitterrand' second term including the other female PM Edith Cresson. In response of this, LFI will formally present a no-confidence motion against the government.

[MRCVzla]

Just to "close" the circle, the no confidence vote presented by the NUPES groups was on Monday and of course it failed, just having the votes of all MPs from LFI, GDR and the Ecologist groups, the majority of the Socialist group (except 6 of the not-so-NUPES friendly PS MPs like Rabault, Saulignac, Potier, etc who didn't vote the motion)... and for some reason Nicolas Dupont-Aignan being the only right-winger voting for the left motion.

Its more than clear what the dynamic so far in the legislature is being the Macronismo, NUPES and RN blocks cancelling each other, meanwhile LR on many occassions will be simple spectators (or act responsibly).