2022 French legislatives

[Logical]

[Logical]

With 83% of the vote counted it looks like Zemmour will narrowly miss the runoff.

28.25% ENS
25.44% RN
22.78% Zemmour (REC)

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2022/083/08304.html

[Logical]

Another RN-ENS-NUPES triangulaire in Nièvre-2nd

[Logical]

NUPES ahead in all of Seine Saint Denis districts and is in a great position to sweep them clean next week.

[Logical]

There are 7 triangulaires and 5 directly elected candidates as noted previously by others.

Reviewed every constituency and found 8 actually.
Dordogne 3rd (NUPES-ENS-RN)
Hauts de Seine 2nd (NUPES-ENS-LR)
Hauts de Seine 3rd (ENS-LR-NUPES)
Lot 2nd (NUPES-ENS-DVG)
Lot et Garonne 1st (ENS-RN-NUPES)
Lot et Garonne 2nd (RN-NUPES-ENS)
Nièvre 2nd (RN-ENS-NUPES)
Tarn 2nd (NUPES-ENS-RN)

[Logical]

Does anyone have a count of the number of candidates from each nuances within 1% of making it to the runoff?

[Logical]

My dumb vibes based prediction

ENS+ 250
NUP   195
LR+     70
RN       37
DVG    10
OTH    15

[Logical]

NUPES backed separatists appear to have won all 3 seats in French Polynesia. An upset as ENS backed autonomists were expected to win 2 out of the 3 seats.

[Logical]

If LREM fails to get a majority and in a few months Macron realizes he can't get stuff done, could he dissolve the legislative branch and call for snap election? Sorry for asking this potentially stupid question, I'm just not that familiar with French elections besides the presidency.

He absolutely could. Of course, such a move is risky. The economy isn't getting better in the near term and there's no guarantee that he will win a majority in a new election.

[Logical]

Small bits of results just for fun. A tiny community in the triangulaire of Nièvre 2nd.

First round
RN - 58
NUPES - 41
ENS - 27

Second round
RN - 59
NUPES - 49
ENS - 33
https://twitter.com/com_planchez/status/1538568933069955072

[Logical]

EXIT POLL leak according to the Belgians

ENS 208-248
NUPES 163-203
RN 67-90
LR+ 30-50

https://www.lesoir.be/449447/article/2022-06-19/legislatives-en-france-le-parti-demmanuel-macron-naurait-pas-la-majorite-absolue

[Logical]

Well this is going to be a mess

ENS 210-250
NUPES 150-180
RN 80-100
LR+ 60-70
DVD 7-12
DVG 4-8

[Logical]

Every seat in Pyrénées-Orientales is won by RN. Give them back to Spain.

[Logical]

IFOP final projection
ENS 230-240
NUPES 165-175
RN 80-85
LR+ 62-68
DVG 8
DVD 8
OTH 6

[Logical]

Results for overseas seats 1, 2, and 11 are now up: https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/services-aux-francais/voter-a-l-etranger/resultats-des-elections/article/elections-legislatives-resultats-du-2eme-tour-pour-les-francais-de-l-etranger

Ensemble wins all three declared.

LREM candidate won 81-19 in Miami because of course lol.

[Logical]

Given the large number of races decided by <50 votes, how many do you think will be annulled due to irregularities and rerun?

[Logical]

Most ENS-NUPES runoffs actually turned out as the polls and conventional wisdom projected. There is a slight overperformance by ENS but not by much. The problem for both was that they collapsed in races against RN & LR. DVG did very well, which shows that the NUPES/Melenchon label is still toxic among a considerable number of voters.

[Logical]

Another question:
Eyeballing the results shows dozens of results 50.xx - 49.xx, often at the expensive of NUPES.
Would anyone have a list of races ranked by closeness?

There were 32 races decided by less than 200 votes. NUPES were indeed quite unlucky in these close races. Meanwhile ENS had the luck of the LPC.

Margin    Winner       Loser     Constituency
    3          ENS        NUPES     Haute-Garonne 6th
    4          ENS        NUPES     Seine-et-Marne 8th
   11         ENS          RN         Loiret 5th
   16         DVC         DVC       Wallis and Futuna
   18         ENS        NUPES     Essone 5th (Cedric Villani's seat, he lost) 
   19         LR+        NUPES     Saint Pierre and Miquelon
   24         ENS        NUPES     Charente 1st
   56         RN           ENS        Pas-de-Calais 6th (Minister of Health lost)
   65         ENS        NUPES     Côte-d'Or 3rd
   71         NUPES      RN         Pas-de-Calais 3rd
   78         ENS        NUPES     Seine-Maritime 1st
   88         NUPES      RN         Sarthe 4th
   89         NUPES      ENS       Pyrénées-Atlantiques 4th
  104        NUPES      ENS       Hautes-Pyrénées 1st
  105        ENS          RN         Nièvre 2nd (triangulaire with NUPES)
  115        NUPES      ENS       Orne 1st
  116        ENS         NUPES    Puy-de-Dôme 4th
  117        NUPES      ENS       Yvelines 11th
  122        ENS-reb   NUPES    Finistere 2nd
  126        ENS           LR        Haut-Rhin 1st
  126        ENS         NUPES    Lot 2nd (triangulaire with RN)
  140        RN           NUPES    Allier 2nd 
  148        NUPES       RN        Meurthe-et-Moselle 6th
  156        REG          DVD      Haute-Corse 2nd
  165        ENS         NUPES    Meurthe-et-Moselle 2nd
  177        NUPES      ENS       Val-de-Marne 7th
  183        ENS         NUPES    Gironde 12th
  193        RN           NUPES    Charente 3rd
  193        Likud        ENS       Expats 8th
  198        ENS          RN         Ardennes 3rd
  199        ENS         NUPES    Hautes-Alps 1st
  200        ENS         NUPES    Calvados 1st