Australia General Discussion 2.0

[brucejoel99]

Scott Ludlam resigns from Australian Senate after finding out he has New Zealand citizenship

[brucejoel99]

AustralianSwingVoter, since you're Atlas' resident expert on Australian politics, can you (&/or even anybody else if you can please clarify, for that matter) please explain to me if I've got the gist of all this correct:

So, once a majority of Liberals (43) formally submit a petition to Turnbull asking for a party meeting, AND if the Solicitor-General declares Dutton to be constitutionally eligible to sit in parliament, then Turnbull will hold the party meeting, at which he will invite a leadership spill motion. If (as is highly anticipated) the spill motion is carried, then he won't contest the subsequent ballot, which (if & when it goes ahead) will be a 3-way race between Dutton, Morrison, & Bishop...

Is that right? Am I missing something? B/c I've gotta tell you, as a non-Australian who's still very much intrigued by all this political drama, this is all confusing af lol

[brucejoel99]

TURNBULL WILL RESIGN AND QUIT PARLIAMENT IMMEDIATELY

Surely, Turnbull's continuing to stare down his opponents, praying that the spill motion itself fails.  After all, some of those 43 signatures are Turnbull supporters, apparently, who just want to have things resolved (i.e. the petition has 43 signatures asking for a party room meeting to be called, but that doesn't necessarily mean there 43 votes for a spill motion). So it isn't absolutely guaranteed that the spill motion will be passed; isn't that his one last shot at victory before having to force himself to leave parliament immediately?

[brucejoel99]

So should we all just expect Dutton to be Prime Minister within the next couple of hours?

Dutton or Scott Morrison, it seems; apparently Bishop is currently expected to be eliminated in the first round (though, of course, Joe Hockey was seen as the favourite to win the ballot in 2009, yet was promptly knocked out in the first round of voting)

[brucejoel99]

TURNBULL WILL RESIGN AND QUIT PARLIAMENT IMMEDIATELY

Surely, Turnbull's continuing to stare down his opponents, praying that the spill motion itself fails.  After all, some of those 43 signatures are Turnbull supporters, apparently, who just want to have things resolved (i.e. the petition has 43 signatures asking for a party room meeting to be called, but that doesn't necessarily mean there 43 votes for a spill motion). So it isn't absolutely guaranteed that the spill motion will be passed; isn't that his one last shot at victory before having to force himself to leave parliament immediately?

No. 43 Signatures mean 43 votes for a spill. The spill motion will be near unanimous.

The spill motion has been carried 45-40. So a leadership contest will take place & Turnbull is officially done.

[brucejoel99]

TURNBULL WILL RESIGN AND QUIT PARLIAMENT IMMEDIATELY

Surely, Turnbull's continuing to stare down his opponents, praying that the spill motion itself fails.  After all, some of those 43 signatures are Turnbull supporters, apparently, who just want to have things resolved (i.e. the petition has 43 signatures asking for a party room meeting to be called, but that doesn't necessarily mean there 43 votes for a spill motion). So it isn't absolutely guaranteed that the spill motion will be passed; isn't that his one last shot at victory before having to force himself to leave parliament immediately?

No. 43 Signatures mean 43 votes for a spill. The spill motion will be near unanimous.

The spill motion has been carried 45-40. So a leadership contest will take place & Turnbull is officially done.

I did not expect the spill motion to be contested. This is good news for Bishop.

Oh, how so for Bishop in particular?

[brucejoel99]

SCOTT MORRISON ELECTED LIBERAL PARTY LEADER, WILL BECOME 30TH PRIME MINISTER

[brucejoel99]

ABC reporting Morrison defeated Dutton 45-40 (interestingly, that's the same margin that the spill motion was carried by)

[brucejoel99]

Greg Hunt, Steve Ciobo, & Josh Frydenberg have nominated for Deputy Leader; apparently, Frydenberg is the one to beat/the consensus candidate

[brucejoel99]

To clarify

Kevin Rudd - November 2007 - June 2010
Julia Gillard - June 2010 - June 2013
Kevin Rudd - June - September 2013
Tony Abbott - September 2013 - September 2015
Malcolm Turnbull - September 2015 - August 2018
Scott Morrison - August 2018 -

This now means that Australia has named its 5th prime minister in as many years; this is officially Italy territory now lol

[brucejoel99]

So... Labour is pretty much going to win next year.

And our 31st PM

Hey hey hey now just wait a minute... for all we know, he'll be the 32nd, by the time the election actually rolls around

[brucejoel99]

ScoMo just introduced (& the Liberal party room passed) a new threshold to trigger a leadership spill/knifing of a sitting PM.

In regards to a leader elected at a federal election, a spill can now only occur w/ the support of 2/3rds of the party room.

The current rules still apply while in Opposition, & while in government to a hypothetical PM (e.g. ScoMo) who had previously rolled the PM elected at the last election (e.g. Malcolm).

What this means is that the rule change doesn't yet apply to ScoMo, so it's still just as easy to roll him before the election today as it was yesterday before this rule change was passed; however, if (by some miracle) the Libs win the election w/ him as leader, then the rule change would at that point secure his job as PM for the foreseeable future (that is, until a prospective challenger gains the support of 2/3rds of the party room).

The changes don't apply to the deputy leader position.

Oh, & if these changes had been in place before the August leadership spill, Malcolm would still be PM... (hell, if these changes had been in place before Malcolm's 2015 knifing of Abbott, then Abbott would've never been toppled, the Libs would've lost 2016, & Shorten would be leading Labor into a 2019 election as PM right now, probably against either Malcolm or Bishop).

Also, who else is ready for the inevitable Abbott vs. Bishop spill come next yr. after A.) the Libs inevitably lose the election; B.) ScoMo resigns as leader; & C.) Dutton loses his marginal seat in said election?

[brucejoel99]

Never ask a question you don't know the answer to...

[brucejoel99]

Bishop will retire from politics at the election, so looks like the Lib spill later this yr. won't be Abbott vs. Bishop after all.