Australia General Discussion 2.0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I have live footage from the Labor party room:

Number 3

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lolstralia

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just caught up with this; is there any actual reason for the coup beyond worries about next years election?

Queensland. We're bleeding votes to One Nation in Queensland which don't come back on preferences. Also, Turnbull has lost everyone's confidence, as he has now given up on Tax Cuts. The conservatives want Turnbull's head on a stake, and they're going to get it.

But federal elections don't use OPV, so surely the LNP will get ONP preferences regardless (and iirc Labor just abolished OPV in Queensland state elections anyway)? Unless you think One Nation voters will put Labor above Libs?

To me, it's a dumb move from the right - Turnbull is not exactly toxic as Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard was. When Abbott was rolled, the LNP were lurching from disaster to disaster, gaffes, bad policy moves and losing unlosable elections. When Gillard was ditched, one could quite reasonably argue that the massive election losses she saw in Queensland and NSW would hit the ALP federally.

This is more akin to the rolling of Kevin Rudd - a factional battle that will alienate and piss people off. Especially as they're most angry at Turnbull for climate change policy, an issue where most people support more action by the government.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just caught up with this; is there any actual reason for the coup beyond worries about next years election?

Queensland. We're bleeding votes to One Nation in Queensland which don't come back on preferences. Also, Turnbull has lost everyone's confidence, as he has now given up on Tax Cuts. The conservatives want Turnbull's head on a stake, and they're going to get it.

But federal elections don't use OPV, so surely the LNP will get ONP preferences regardless (and iirc Labor just abolished OPV in Queensland state elections anyway)? Unless you think One Nation voters will put Labor above Libs?

To me, it's a dumb move from the right - Turnbull is not exactly toxic as Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard was. When Abbott was rolled, the LNP were lurching from disaster to disaster, gaffes, bad policy moves and losing unlosable elections. When Gillard was ditched, one could quite reasonably argue that the massive election losses she saw in Queensland and NSW would hit the ALP federally.

This is more akin to the rolling of Kevin Rudd - a factional battle that will alienate and piss people off. Especially as they're most angry at Turnbull for climate change policy, an issue where most people support more action by the government.

Nope, Antony Green showed that for every 10 votes the LNP loses to One Nation they only got 6 back.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/workmanalice/status/1032372295510024192

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just caught up with this; is there any actual reason for the coup beyond worries about next years election?

Queensland. We're bleeding votes to One Nation in Queensland which don't come back on preferences. Also, Turnbull has lost everyone's confidence, as he has now given up on Tax Cuts. The conservatives want Turnbull's head on a stake, and they're going to get it.

But federal elections don't use OPV, so surely the LNP will get ONP preferences regardless (and iirc Labor just abolished OPV in Queensland state elections anyway)? Unless you think One Nation voters will put Labor above Libs?

To me, it's a dumb move from the right - Turnbull is not exactly toxic as Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard was. When Abbott was rolled, the LNP were lurching from disaster to disaster, gaffes, bad policy moves and losing unlosable elections. When Gillard was ditched, one could quite reasonably argue that the massive election losses she saw in Queensland and NSW would hit the ALP federally.

This is more akin to the rolling of Kevin Rudd - a factional battle that will alienate and piss people off. Especially as they're most angry at Turnbull for climate change policy, an issue where most people support more action by the government.

Nope, Antony Green showed that for every 10 votes the LNP loses to One Nation they only got 6 back.

Can you link? Not denying it, just curious.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just caught up with this; is there any actual reason for the coup beyond worries about next years election?

Queensland. We're bleeding votes to One Nation in Queensland which don't come back on preferences. Also, Turnbull has lost everyone's confidence, as he has now given up on Tax Cuts. The conservatives want Turnbull's head on a stake, and they're going to get it.

But federal elections don't use OPV, so surely the LNP will get ONP preferences regardless (and iirc Labor just abolished OPV in Queensland state elections anyway)? Unless you think One Nation voters will put Labor above Libs?

To me, it's a dumb move from the right - Turnbull is not exactly toxic as Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard was. When Abbott was rolled, the LNP were lurching from disaster to disaster, gaffes, bad policy moves and losing unlosable elections. When Gillard was ditched, one could quite reasonably argue that the massive election losses she saw in Queensland and NSW would hit the ALP federally.

This is more akin to the rolling of Kevin Rudd - a factional battle that will alienate and piss people off. Especially as they're most angry at Turnbull for climate change policy, an issue where most people support more action by the government.

Nope, Antony Green showed that for every 10 votes the LNP loses to One Nation they only got 6 back.

Can you link? Not denying it, just curious.

It was from the Queensland election night coverage.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labor has called a division on referring Dutton to the High Court.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

AYES 68
NOES 69

Dutton stays by one vote.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7708-morgan-poll-turnbull-shorten-dutton-august-22-2018-201808220930?platform=hootsuite

This is why I think this is a bad move from the Libs. Turnbull's personal appeal is weaker than it once was, but it certainly outstrips Shorten's. I doubt Dutton will get much of a boost, especially in the sordid manner he is assuming power.

Just caught up with this; is there any actual reason for the coup beyond worries about next years election?

Queensland. We're bleeding votes to One Nation in Queensland which don't come back on preferences. Also, Turnbull has lost everyone's confidence, as he has now given up on Tax Cuts. The conservatives want Turnbull's head on a stake, and they're going to get it.

But federal elections don't use OPV, so surely the LNP will get ONP preferences regardless (and iirc Labor just abolished OPV in Queensland state elections anyway)? Unless you think One Nation voters will put Labor above Libs?

To me, it's a dumb move from the right - Turnbull is not exactly toxic as Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard was. When Abbott was rolled, the LNP were lurching from disaster to disaster, gaffes, bad policy moves and losing unlosable elections. When Gillard was ditched, one could quite reasonably argue that the massive election losses she saw in Queensland and NSW would hit the ALP federally.

This is more akin to the rolling of Kevin Rudd - a factional battle that will alienate and piss people off. Especially as they're most angry at Turnbull for climate change policy, an issue where most people support more action by the government.

Nope, Antony Green showed that for every 10 votes the LNP loses to One Nation they only got 6 back.

Can you link? Not denying it, just curious.

It was from the Queensland election night coverage.

That was the election where ONP put all incumbents last in their directed preferences, right?

Anyway, I'm not sure what is to be done in general. Iirc the key message from the commentaries on Queensland and WA elections was that any attempts to work with ONP backfired hard on the LNP?

[GoTfan]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7708-morgan-poll-turnbull-shorten-dutton-august-22-2018-201808220930?platform=hootsuite

This is why I think this is a bad move from the Libs. Turnbull's personal appeal is weaker than it once was, but it certainly outstrips Shorten's. I doubt Dutton will get much of a boost, especially in the sordid manner he is assuming power.

Personal favourability didn't work for Turnbull in 2016.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7708-morgan-poll-turnbull-shorten-dutton-august-22-2018-201808220930?platform=hootsuite

This is why I think this is a bad move from the Libs. Turnbull's personal appeal is weaker than it once was, but it certainly outstrips Shorten's. I doubt Dutton will get much of a boost, especially in the sordid manner he is assuming power.

Personal favourability didn't work for Turnbull in 2016.

Yes, but it certainly didn't hurt that people actually liked the PM. If Abbott was leading the LNP, we would be talking about Tanya Plibersek's threatened spill against PRime Minister Shorten right now.

[GoTfan]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7708-morgan-poll-turnbull-shorten-dutton-august-22-2018-201808220930?platform=hootsuite

This is why I think this is a bad move from the Libs. Turnbull's personal appeal is weaker than it once was, but it certainly outstrips Shorten's. I doubt Dutton will get much of a boost, especially in the sordid manner he is assuming power.

Personal favourability didn't work for Turnbull in 2016.

Yes, but it certainly didn't hurt that people actually liked the PM. If Abbott was leading the LNP, we would be talking about Tanya Plibersek's threatened spill against PRime Minister Shorten right now.

You sure about that?

I'm a Labor Party member. Part of the Left faction, which Plibersek is from, and I have friends from the Right, which Shorten is from. He's generally pretty well-liked by both factions.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7708-morgan-poll-turnbull-shorten-dutton-august-22-2018-201808220930?platform=hootsuite

This is why I think this is a bad move from the Libs. Turnbull's personal appeal is weaker than it once was, but it certainly outstrips Shorten's. I doubt Dutton will get much of a boost, especially in the sordid manner he is assuming power.

Personal favourability didn't work for Turnbull in 2016.

Yes, but it certainly didn't hurt that people actually liked the PM. If Abbott was leading the LNP, we would be talking about Tanya Plibersek's threatened spill against PRime Minister Shorten right now.

You sure about that?

I'm a Labor Party member. Part of the Left faction, which Plibersek is from, and I have friends from the Right, which Shorten is from. He's generally pretty well-liked by both factions.

Shorten is safe as leader until Bill becomes PM. Leadership problems won't start until they enter government.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7708-morgan-poll-turnbull-shorten-dutton-august-22-2018-201808220930?platform=hootsuite

This is why I think this is a bad move from the Libs. Turnbull's personal appeal is weaker than it once was, but it certainly outstrips Shorten's. I doubt Dutton will get much of a boost, especially in the sordid manner he is assuming power.

Personal favourability didn't work for Turnbull in 2016.

Yes, but it certainly didn't hurt that people actually liked the PM. If Abbott was leading the LNP, we would be talking about Tanya Plibersek's threatened spill against PRime Minister Shorten right now.

You sure about that?

I'm a Labor Party member. Part of the Left faction, which Plibersek is from, and I have friends from the Right, which Shorten is from. He's generally pretty well-liked by both factions.

Sorry bad joke. I actually don't think Shorten will be kicked, mainly because Kevin changed the rules to stop drive by assassinations. The LNP should really consider something similar...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/CroweDM/status/1032427061003018240

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Greg Hunt (Minister for Health) and Angus Taylor (Minister for Law Enforcement and Cybersecurity) have both tendered their resignations.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Greg Hunt (Minister for Health) and Angus Taylor (Minister for Law Enforcement and Cybersecurity) have both tendered their resignations.

Alan Tudge (Minister for Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs) too.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Greg Hunt (Minister for Health) and Angus Taylor (Minister for Law Enforcement and Cybersecurity) have both tendered their resignations.

Alan Tudge (Minister for Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs) too.

Michael Keenan (Minister for Human Services, Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Digital Transformation) and Steve Ciobo (Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment) too.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/grhutchens/status/1032433592721268736

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1032436197870600192

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/mpbowers/status/1032432651305545728

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/raffciccone/status/1032439421725945856

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Parliament is to be adjourned. You can imagine how Tony Burke feels about it.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

They're voting on the adjournment.