Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[libertpaulian]

http://www.wbrc.com/story/38903793/outrage-expressed-over-proposal-to-close-most-randolph-co-polling-locations

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If this goes through, presumably it would lower turnout in Randolph County, a majority African-American County, something that would help Kemp... but is that the motive?

With Kemp's "I'm a gun totin' hick tryin' to save muh Southron heritage" campaign style, I do NOT believe this is a coincidence.

[libertpaulian]

BTW, for those who are nervous about the debt issue affecting Abrams' chances, I present to you the US House election in 2006 in Indiana District 2, between incumbent Republican Chris Chocola and Democrat Joe Donnelly:

http://articles.southbendtribune.com/2006-07-25/news/26962784_1_tax-payments-property-taxes-fall-tax-bill

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Donnelly would not only go on to win that election as well as in 2008 and 2010---he became Senator in 2012!

[libertpaulian]

I could see Republican's being so worried about losing this race... that they end up beating themselves through all the underhanded stunts they try to pull.

Essentially McCrory vs. Cooper all over again.

[libertpaulian]

I could see Republican's being so worried about losing this race... that they end up beating themselves through all the underhanded stunts they try to pull.

Essentially McCrory vs. Cooper all over again.

I tend to think Cooper won on his on merit ... not really b/c of all of the Republican shenanigans.  Cooper was much more likeable than McCrory & Cooper ran a smart campaign... even campaigning in smaller rural counties- which made the difference.  My mom is an Obama-Trump voter (now 100% Trump/ FoxNews) ... and she voted for Cooper with full support- based in large part on being invited to a campaign meeting him when he came to my parents small rural county.  Winning over as many voters from rural areas is key for Dems winning close races (which often just showing up makes the difference)

Abrams seems to be following a similar strategy by barnstorming rural and small-town counties.

[libertpaulian]

Can Stacey Abrams get over 70% of the vote in Athens-Clarke County, GA?

Honestly, she needs to break 70% in Athens-Clarke, DeKalb, and Fulton to avoid a runoff.

[libertpaulian]

A white person struggling with their healthcare or job situation, perhaps?

[libertpaulian]

Had so much fun at the DPG State Convention today!

The highlight was the crowd chanting "Lock Him Up!" when Hank Johnson gave his speech and talked about Cohen naming Trump as a co-conspirator. He said "Something big is about to go down and his name is Donald Trump".

Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux gave good speeches. So did Josh McCall, but my favorite was Francys Johnson. He is a natural with the mic and an audience to rile up.

Charlie Bailey is much more personable than I thought he was.

Of course Stacey Abrams brought down the house, but so did Sarah Riggs Amico. God I hope Abrams's potential coattails can carry Amico over the finish line. I have already designated Amico to be elected Governor after Abrams serves her two terms.

Abrams debuted this clip at the convention: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6O8fMzlHMK8&feature=youtu.be

Now that's an AD!

[libertpaulian]

Had so much fun at the DPG State Convention today!

The highlight was the crowd chanting "Lock Him Up!" when Hank Johnson gave his speech and talked about Cohen naming Trump as a co-conspirator. He said "Something big is about to go down and his name is Donald Trump".

Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux gave good speeches. So did Josh McCall, but my favorite was Francys Johnson. He is a natural with the mic and an audience to rile up.

Charlie Bailey is much more personable than I thought he was.

Of course Stacey Abrams brought down the house, but so did Sarah Riggs Amico. God I hope Abrams's potential coattails can carry Amico over the finish line. I have already designated Amico to be elected Governor after Abrams serves her two terms.

Abrams debuted this clip at the convention: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6O8fMzlHMK8&feature=youtu.be

Half a term. I bet Abrams, if she wins, will be the Democrats Vice Presidential nominee in 2020 (unless the top of ticket nominee is Harris or Booker).

No way in hell.  Dems need that seat for purposes of redistricting in the 2020s.

[libertpaulian]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

[libertpaulian]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I wouldn't read too much into that.  IMO DeSantis is a much more extreme candidate than Kemp.

They're equally extreme.  DeSantis is going with the alt-right image, whilst Kemp is going for the toothless hick in his trailer and pickup truck image.

[libertpaulian]

Alright, so I've finished my first draft of Georgia 2018 Abrams win benchmarks. I've decided for the time being to settle on a nominal win rather than a majority win, simply because I'm not sure where else it's feasible to stretch the numbers to get to 50%. Nevertheless, I did manage to get Abrams to 49.3% when all was said and done; in the end, this is equivalent to closing 223k of the 262k deficit Carter had in 2014. Obviously the easiest way for Abrams to get a majority with these figures as a baseline is if Kemp's raw turnout is lower than Deal's was in 2014.

I'm open to suggestions or recommendations in some parts of the state. Below is a map and the list with each county's benchmarks. I'll probably turn this into an interactive map in the next day or two.

County-by-County Benchmarks (2014 and 2018 Results + Swings)

So here are the interactive maps in case anybody's interested:


Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Margin)

Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Swing)

Why does Brooks County flip but not Lowndes?

[libertpaulian]

Is it possible Lowndes could flip, given there is an urban area (Valdosta) in the county?  (Granted, Valdosta isn't some mega city or anything, but enough voters could maybe change things?)

[libertpaulian]

Alright, so I've finished my first draft of Georgia 2018 Abrams win benchmarks. I've decided for the time being to settle on a nominal win rather than a majority win, simply because I'm not sure where else it's feasible to stretch the numbers to get to 50%. Nevertheless, I did manage to get Abrams to 49.3% when all was said and done; in the end, this is equivalent to closing 223k of the 262k deficit Carter had in 2014. Obviously the easiest way for Abrams to get a majority with these figures as a baseline is if Kemp's raw turnout is lower than Deal's was in 2014.

I'm open to suggestions or recommendations in some parts of the state. Below is a map and the list with each county's benchmarks. I'll probably turn this into an interactive map in the next day or two.

County-by-County Benchmarks (2014 and 2018 Results + Swings)

So here are the interactive maps in case anybody's interested:


Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Margin)

Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Swing)

Insufficient. Your figures don't get Abrams to 50% plus one, so the race goes to a runoff which she almost inevitably loses.

I think Adam is trying to set benchmarks for her.  Obviously, she'd make up the deficit by picking up a few votes in more hostile territory and making sure she runs up the margins with her natural coalitions.

[libertpaulian]

Black voters will NOT be sitting out a mid-term with Drumpf the Dump in the White House.

[libertpaulian]

New Abrams video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzIgulrOuio

Her campaign is doing a faith outreach summits this week throughout South and Central Georgia.

I see a lot of Presidential material in her.

[libertpaulian]

Joe Biden will campaign with Abrams in Atlanta next Thursday.

She needs Barack and Michelle, honestly.

[libertpaulian]

Do y’all think there is a good chance that Abrams could outperform Gillum on election night whether either of them win and/or reach 1st place?

It's possible, but Georgia is much more polarized than Florida is, not to mention Abrams has that 50%+ rule.

[libertpaulian]

Just for reference, here are the total numbers/percentages of people who voted early in each election going back to 2002 (note: 2004 & 2010 are approximations based on references I could find; for 2002, all I could find was that "7% of votes cast were early votes"):

If Abrams can kill it in early voting and get 46-48% on Election Day, I think she'll come out on top.

[libertpaulian]

BTW, how are they able to break VBM ballots down by race and gender like that?

[libertpaulian]

Georgia Votes now has a feature that breaks down the vote by each individual county.

For example, here's what it says about Newton County where I live:

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When it comes to gender right now females have outvoted males 59.3-39.2 and by race blacks have outvoted whites 68.4-19.6

So Abrams is more than likely KILLING it here right now.

When do the debates start?

[libertpaulian]

Wouldn't Obama's 5 point loss (black margins)  + Clinton's 5 point loss (suburbs margins) get you pretty close to a win? This early voting seems like it's fitting into that larger trend.

I think so.  Abrams just has to make sure she isn't getting obliterated in the rurals like Hillary did.  If she can up her margins in the rural regions by a teensy bit, she should be fine.

[libertpaulian]

Congrats Governor Brian Kemp?

https://www.allongeorgia.com/georgia-state-politics/abrams-at-georgia-southern-people-shouldnt-have-to-go-into-agriculture-to-make-a-living/?fbclid=IwAR1vu3bVLq1BNP-vCQ_PZin0_3DMcg9ovKiJ2CC9v7Pk-W4GeGWWwiIPu_c

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Seriously, what a stupid-ass move for her to make.  That would be like if Joe Donnelly said "Hoosiers shouldn't have to husk corn or make RVs for a living."

[libertpaulian]

Another 85k ballots cast/received today. Looks like 78-79k were in-person.

Are most of them in Metro ATL/Savannah/Macon/Athens/Augusta/Black Belt?

[libertpaulian]

Abrams is coming back to Dalton tomorrow, and is also visiting Rome, Cartersville, Hiram and Douglasville tomorrow as well. I'm not going to be able to attend (unfortunately we're scheduled for noon) but I'm hoping it's a great crowd. Should be able to get some photos and the like of the event.

How do the voting stats look today?

[libertpaulian]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 99,582 valid votes were cast yesterday; today's accepted ballot total stands at 482,500 votes: 18.92% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 197% higher than at this point in 2014 (up from 194% yesterday).

The white share of the electorate increased by 1 point since yesterday. The electorate that voted today was 64% white, 28% black and 8% other (62/28/10 yesterday). Today was the single biggest day in the reduction of the 65+ category (from 46.5% yesterday to 44.1% today), with all other age groups growing in size.

Code:

White	292440	60.6% (+1.0)
Black	141497	29.3% (-0.5)
Latino	5440         1.1% (-0.1)
Asian	5460	         1.1%  (-0.1)
Other	37663        7.8%  (-0.4)

Female	257153	53.3% (+0.2)
Male		216608 	44.9% (-0.1)
Unknown	8739	        1.8%   (-0.1)

18-29	 25941	5.4%   (+0.5)
30-39	 32391	6.7%   (+0.5)
40-49	 53693	11.1%   (+0.7)
50-64       149280	30.9%  (+0.8)
65+         212756      44.1%  (-2.4)
Unknown	  8439       1.7%   (-0.2)

Yesterday as in Thursday or yesterday as in Friday?