WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Ferguson97]

Run against an incumbent during a Republican-friendly year

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another Doomer Barnes thread we need to wait til WI polls closes

Tammy Baldwin is on the ballot any ways and Evers is likely to win so Rs aren't gonna win WInin 24 with Evers and Baldwin

[Spectator]

Thinking that the statewide electorate was amenable to someone acting like they were running for UW Madison student body president

[MT Treasurer]

Barnes was the wrong candidate for this race. Johnson remains the luckiest guy in Republican politics.

Not just directed at you, but one of the earliest and costliest faux pas you can commit when running against a consistently successful & battle-tested incumbent (esp. one that you’ve underestimated three times in a row) is to chalk their entire success up to mere luck just because their ideology/voting record/rhetoric doesn’t align with yours or with your preconceptions of what a "swing state" Senator's ideology/voting rhetoric/rhetoric should look like. I only mention this because I’ve seen Democrats on here and people in general fall into this trap whenever they have disdain for a particular incumbent (Republicans with Jon Tester, Democrats with Ron Johnson, etc.).

Part of the reason Democrats thought they could get away with nominating Barnes is because they assumed the 'extremism'/'radical liberal' attacks wouldn’t work in this race since voters would perceive Johnson as even less moderate and more 'extremist.' However, the man obviously has strengths in his own right which are clearly unrelated to 'ideology'-

https://twitter.com/RonJohnsonWI/status/1583580889535156237?cxt=HHwWmsC4nbmbgfor...

This seems like a very basic ad, but when you dissect it, it’s actually remarkable how many themes/key parts of the candidate's messaging are condensed and interwoven here in merely 30 seconds.

[President Johnson]

Barnes seems to have failed in portraying Ron Johnson as an elitist insider whose political views are out of touch with the mainstream electorate. Barnes should (have) pressed Johnson on what specific policy proposals he wants to ease economic hartships and tackle inflation (aside from focusing on abortion). And ask Johnson why he hasn't delivered on that already.

Johnson also deserves more flack for breaking his two-term promise. I think this would be very easy to attack him on, or just as a typical pay-for-play politician who only cares about winning reelection.

Now, I'm not sure this would have been enough and I'm not a political organizer who's deeply into Wisconsin specifics, but I feel like this was a missed opportunity. At least to give Johnson a tougher run for his money. The election of course hasn't happened so far, but I don't see Barnes winning anymore. A 52-48% split is probably the best he can hope for at this point.

[Spectator]

Barnes seems to have failed in portraying Ron Johnson as an elitist insider whose political views are out of touch with the mainstream electorate. Barnes should (have) pressed Johnson on what specific policy proposals he wants to ease economic hartships and tackle inflation (aside from focusing on abortion). And ask Johnson why he hasn't delivered on that already.

Johnson also deserves more flack for breaking his two-term promise. I think this would be very easy to attack him on, or just as a typical pay-for-play politician who only cares about winning reelection.

Now, I'm not sure this would have been enough and I'm not a political organizer who's deeply into Wisconsin specifics, but I feel like this was a missed opportunity. At least to give Johnson a tougher run for his money. The election of course hasn't happened so far, but I don't see Barnes winning anymore. A 52-48% split is probably the best he can hope for at this point.

That was a key missed opportunity too, and it’s probably Johnson’s biggest vulnerabilities that most the electorate could get behind.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes seems to have failed in portraying Ron Johnson as an elitist insider whose political views are out of touch with the mainstream electorate. Barnes should (have) pressed Johnson on what specific policy proposals he wants to ease economic hartships and tackle inflation (aside from focusing on abortion). And ask Johnson why he hasn't delivered on that already.

Johnson also deserves more flack for breaking his two-term promise. I think this would be very easy to attack him on, or just as a typical pay-for-play politician who only cares about winning reelection.

Now, I'm not sure this would have been enough and I'm not a political organizer who's deeply into Wisconsin specifics, but I feel like this was a missed opportunity. At least to give Johnson a tougher run for his money. The election of course hasn't happened so far, but I don't see Barnes winning anymore. A 52-48% split is probably the best he can hope for at this point.

What did I tell you about polls it's a 303 map anyways Zeldin, Oz, Master, Johnson, LAXALT are gonna wind up at 45 percent Biden and all our D GOVs arre at 50/45 Approvals just like Biden won last time the Polls are FALLACIOUS in the 303 but not red states

Greenberg 51)47 Ds lead on GCB guess what 2020 GCB 51/47 not RASSY

Johnson isn't at 50 Approvals like DeSantis he is at 45 percent where he is gonna wind up like Laxalt

[Pollster]

Barnes was the wrong candidate for this race. Johnson remains the luckiest guy in Republican politics.

Not just directed at you, but one of the earliest and costliest faux pas you can commit when running against a consistently successful & battle-tested incumbent (esp. one that you’ve underestimated three times in a row) is to chalk their entire success up to mere luck just because their ideology/voting record/rhetoric doesn’t align with yours or with your preconceptions of what a "swing state" Senator's ideology/voting rhetoric/rhetoric should look like. I only mention this because I’ve seen Democrats on here and people in general fall into this trap whenever they have disdain for a particular incumbent (Republicans with Jon Tester, Democrats with Ron Johnson, etc.).

Part of the reason Democrats thought they could get away with nominating Barnes is because they assumed the 'extremism'/'radical liberal' attacks wouldn’t work in this race since voters would perceive Johnson as even less moderate and more 'extremist.' However, the man obviously has strengths in his own right which are clearly unrelated to 'ideology'-

[snip]

This seems like a very basic ad, but when you dissect it, it’s actually remarkable how many themes/key parts of the candidate's messaging are condensed and interwoven here in merely 30 seconds.

I agree with what you've laid out here though I don't think this being true and Johnson being remarkably lucky are mutually exclusive (and the same seems true of Tester).

[MT Treasurer]

I agree with what you've laid out here though I don't think this being true and Johnson being remarkably lucky are mutually exclusive (and the same seems true of Tester).

Fair enough, I didn’t mean to imply that they were mutually exclusive; they aren’t.

However, looking back, I’d argue that 2010 and 2016 (but esp. 2010) were still fairly impressive wins by Johnson. It is worth noting that Johnson was of course the lone Republican to beat a Democratic incumbent in an Obama state in 2010 (and in an Obama +14 state at that), something that is often forgotten because of the size of the wave in the House. Obama also won WI by more than NV/CO in 2008, yet the GOP lost both of those states in 2010. The WI race is also notable for being one of the very few which did not see a late shift toward Democrats in the final weeks of the 2010 campaign (or only a minor shift at best).

As far as 2016 is concerned, Feingold clearly had his share of vulnerabilities that made him a risky candidate in hindsight; however, many of those vulnerabilities were also not easy to piece together and communicate to the average voter (Johnson makes this look much easier than it actually is).  

This year, I think there certainly were a few Democrats who would have done slightly better than Barnes, but I’m not sure anyone could have won in this environment. I also think the dramatic geographic/internal transformation of the D base in WI does the party no favors — while their Milwaukee and esp. Madison-centered coalition is very reliable in GE elections, it is also prone to nominating candidates which are less appealing to a statewide electorate.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I agree with what you've laid out here though I don't think this being true and Johnson being remarkably lucky are mutually exclusive (and the same seems true of Tester).

This year, I think there certainly were a few Democrats who would have done slightly better than Barnes, but I’m not sure anyone could have won in this environment.

What about a 2018-type environment, MT? Assuming he's running against a relatively ho-hum but on-brand Democrat, does Johnson have enough prowess to hang on?

[DaleCooper]

I agree with what you've laid out here though I don't think this being true and Johnson being remarkably lucky are mutually exclusive (and the same seems true of Tester).

Fair enough, I didn’t mean to imply that they were mutually exclusive; they aren’t.

However, looking back, I’d argue that 2010 and 2016 (but esp. 2010) were still fairly impressive wins by Johnson. It is worth noting that Johnson was of course the lone Republican to beat a Democratic incumbent in an Obama state in 2010 (and in an Obama +14 state at that), something that is often forgotten because of the size of the wave in the House. Obama also won WI by more than NV/CO in 2008, yet the GOP lost both of those states in 2010. The WI race is also notable for being one of the very few which did not see a late shift toward Democrats in the final weeks of the 2010 campaign (or only a minor shift at best).

As far as 2016 is concerned, Feingold clearly had his share of vulnerabilities that made him a risky candidate in hindsight; however, many of those vulnerabilities were also not easy to piece together and communicate to the average voter (Johnson makes this look much easier than it actually is).  

This year, I think there certainly were a few Democrats who would have done slightly better than Barnes, but I’m not sure anyone could have won in this environment. I also think the dramatic geographic/internal transformation of the D base in WI does the party no favors — while their Milwaukee and esp. Madison-centered coalition is very reliable in GE elections, it is also prone to nominating candidates which are less appealing to a statewide electorate.

People have forgotten or rewritten history in the years since, but at the time in 2016 Johnson was viewed as about as DOA as Mark Kirk.

[DaleCooper]

Barnes seems to have failed in portraying Ron Johnson as an elitist insider whose political views are out of touch with the mainstream electorate. Barnes should (have) pressed Johnson on what specific policy proposals he wants to ease economic hartships and tackle inflation (aside from focusing on abortion). And ask Johnson why he hasn't delivered on that already.

Johnson also deserves more flack for breaking his two-term promise. I think this would be very easy to attack him on, or just as a typical pay-for-play politician who only cares about winning reelection.

Now, I'm not sure this would have been enough and I'm not a political organizer who's deeply into Wisconsin specifics, but I feel like this was a missed opportunity. At least to give Johnson a tougher run for his money. The election of course hasn't happened so far, but I don't see Barnes winning anymore. A 52-48% split is probably the best he can hope for at this point.

This is just not going to work consistently unless the Democratic Party completely changes. No matter how compelling and awesome the candidate is, if he's associated with the Democrats, that is going to hurt the credibility of any class-based arguments at this point because the whole country basically sees the Democrats as elitists themselves and as identity-politics first, class second. It'd be like if a McDonald's spokesperson was telling me about how to make edible food. Even if it's good advice, it's going to ring hollow because he's representing McDonald's.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think we’re moving away from Mandela Barnes being on track to blow a winnable race and into a national environment in which the race is unwinnable for any Democrat.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think Johnson is a good example of someone who runs a good campaign but is a flawed candidate. In 2016, while he was outspoken and conservative, he was more articulate and intelligent sounding. Now he says all these crazy comments. He's certainly crafty and good at attacking his opponents weaknesses and making them unpalatable, but I still think a more "sane" republican who employed this strategy in this race would be demolishing Barnes

[coloradocowboi]

I think Johnson is a good example of someone who runs a good campaign but is a flawed candidate. In 2016, while he was outspoken and conservative, he was more articulate and intelligent sounding. Now he says all these crazy comments. He's certainly crafty and good at attacking his opponents weaknesses and making them unpalatable, but I still think a more "sane" republican who employed this strategy in this race would be demolishing Barnes

e.g. Mike Gallagher (and he would also be a better senator than Ron Johnson)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree with what you've laid out here though I don't think this being true and Johnson being remarkably lucky are mutually exclusive (and the same seems true of Tester).

Fair enough, I didn’t mean to imply that they were mutually exclusive; they aren’t.

However, looking back, I’d argue that 2010 and 2016 (but esp. 2010) were still fairly impressive wins by Johnson. It is worth noting that Johnson was of course the lone Republican to beat a Democratic incumbent in an Obama state in 2010 (and in an Obama +14 state at that), something that is often forgotten because of the size of the wave in the House. Obama also won WI by more than NV/CO in 2008, yet the GOP lost both of those states in 2010. The WI race is also notable for being one of the very few which did not see a late shift toward Democrats in the final weeks of the 2010 campaign (or only a minor shift at best).

As far as 2016 is concerned, Feingold clearly had his share of vulnerabilities that made him a risky candidate in hindsight; however, many of those vulnerabilities were also not easy to piece together and communicate to the average voter (Johnson makes this look much easier than it actually is).  

This year, I think there certainly were a few Democrats who would have done slightly better than Barnes, but I’m not sure anyone could have won in this environment. I also think the dramatic geographic/internal transformation of the D base in WI does the party no favors — while their Milwaukee and esp. Madison-centered coalition is very reliable in GE elections, it is also prone to nominating candidates which are less appealing to a statewide electorate.

There's gonna be more polls on this race next week Johnson is in no better position than LAXALT is he is only up 5 pts and so is LAXALT if Evers wins, Johnson isn't outpolling Michels that much

Didn't you say that Perdue was gonna beat Warnock I think you did and Perdue LOST

[iceman]

If Mandela Barnes loses, will democrats try to play the race card again?

[2016]

If Mandela Barnes loses, will democrats try to play the race card again?

If Mandela Barnes loses he was too progressive for the State of Wisconsin. It is that simple. Tammy Baldwin is also a liberal but she never did or said the outlandish things Mandela Barnes did. I said it many times here: Barnes is too the left of Baldwin and Wisconsin isn't Massachusetts.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Barnes could have started by acknowledging that Wisconsin is a fairly polarised place with its own peculiarities, and Johnson having relatively poor approval numbers doesn't mean lots of people won't still turn out for him. Once he'd internalised that, he could have started working on a plan that didn't seemingly mostly boil down to reciting and tweeting out stock lines that any Democrat anywhere in the country could have said. Ideally that plan would even have accounted for the fact that Johnson is also allowed to campaign.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1585708064090558488

[walleye26]

From what I’ve seen on the ground here, I think there has been a definite shift towards Johnson. Evers seems to be holding close, so as of now I think Evers will barely squeak by but I think this will end up about Johnson +4.

[Ferguson97]

From what I’ve seen on the ground here, I think there has been a definite shift towards Johnson. Evers seems to be holding close, so as of now I think Evers will barely squeak by but I think this will end up about Johnson +4.

What about on the governor’s side?

[walleye26]

From what I’ve seen on the ground here, I think there has been a definite shift towards Johnson. Evers seems to be holding close, so as of now I think Evers will barely squeak by but I think this will end up about Johnson +4.

What about on the governor’s side?

I think Evers has a bit more of a shot since he’s is doing (slightly) better in polling, and a fair amount of moderates realize Evers will have a GOP legislature. I know of a few moderate/GOP leaning folks who are voting Evers because they know that he won’t be able to pass any laws and they are annoyed with Robin Vos’ crap.

[MT Treasurer]

As voters have already begun streaming to the polls, Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson this week raised doubts about early in-person absentee voting in Milwaukee and suggested his supporters in the city hold off from casting their ballots until election day.

But Johnson, who faces Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in the Nov. 8 election, encouraged Republicans to vote early in other areas of the state.

"I would recommend early voting if you have a Republican election clerk," Johnson said during a tele-town hall Monday night in a clip tweeted by the advocacy group Heartland Signal.

"I'm not sure I would recommend a Republican go vote in Milwaukee," he added. "I don't know about the bipartisan observation of those early votes. It might be possible."

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/27/ron-johnson-raises-doubts-about-early-voting-in-milwaukee-fall-election/69597452007/

His spokeswoman said that those were tongue-in-cheek comments, but still noteworthy.

Also, here’s an interesting article detailing how RoJo relies more on talk radio for cultivating his personal brand and connecting with voters than any other Senator:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/us/politics/ron-johnson-wisconsin-radio.html

[doopy pants]

Basket of Deplorables moment?https://twitter.com/TeamRonJon/status/1586359404995043329?cxt=HHwWgoCjzare8IMsAA...