North Carolina White Democrats (corrected version...)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's what I would do if I were a GOP gerrymanderer:

-Remove the part of Raleigh from NC-02 to shore up that crazy lady. I can get it to about 57% McCain. That's probably enough for the short term at least though go much lower and she could go down considering how awful of a candidate she is (She's basically up there with O'Donnell and Angle.)
-Split Asheville to take out Shuler.
-Redraw the entire Charlotte area and shove most of the white liberal areas into Watt's district as well. You can then get two other Republican Charlotte area seats. I was able to get one 56% and one 57% McCain.

McIntyre has enough of a base that a 55% or so McCain seat would be survivable for him, and even if Miller drew his own seat, the truth is it does do a good job of putting a bunch of Democrats in Raleigh and Greensboro somewhere that isn't a Republican seat. Obviously Price's seat is going to move from suburban Wake County to Raleigh proper, but there's still that huge black population in Greensboro. It wouldn't be so much of a problem if NC Republicans pretty much always tend to be wretched (must be residual from Jesse Helms or something.)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I guess if they were going to be less ambitious, they could pack as many Dems into McIntyre's district as possible to make a 9-4 map.

[Frodo]

Does anyone see any of these congressmen retiring to avoid potentially tough races with Republican opponents in a state increasingly tilting to the GOP, particularly with the legislature now firmly in Republican hands preparing to redraw their districts?  There were a number of southern white Democrats who bowed out of last year's mid-term election when they saw early on how devastating the Republican wave would be, particularly in the South -might the same now happen with those (particularly in North Carolina) who managed to survive? 

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

North Carolina is increasingly tilting towards the GOP?

[Mexino Vote]

North Carolina is increasingly tilting towards the GOP?

Well, it's turning back to the GOP from the 2004-2008 trend to the left. 2010 was a victorious year for them even though they only picked up one House seat (they took both chambers in the state Legis.)

[krazen1211]

I guess if they were going to be less ambitious, they could pack as many Dems into McIntyre's district as possible to make a 9-4 map.

10-3 would probably be done if there was a really compelling reason to get rid of McIntyre. There isn't.

9-4 is extremely easy, extremely safe, and cleaner than the current map.

[Skill and Chance]

I guess if they were going to be less ambitious, they could pack as many Dems into McIntyre's district as possible to make a 9-4 map.

10-3 would probably be done if there was a really compelling reason to get rid of McIntyre. There isn't.

9-4 is extremely easy, extremely safe, and cleaner than the current map.

I also think the final map will be 9-4, opening up enough opportunities for pick-ups while keeping the GOP incumbents reasonably safe.  I have a couple of issues with your map, though:

1. High ranking NC Republicans in the state legislature have expressed a strong desire for compacting the districts, particularly by redrawing NC-12 as a VRA district within Mecklenberg County, or at least within metro Charlotte.  They probably have a winning case from a good-government perspective and it is still possible to draw a 9-4 map with a southern tier/Charlotte incarnation of NC-12.  The difference is that the 4th Democratic leaning district ends up in the Research Triangle/Greensboro area, adjacent to NC-4, and it should end up being significantly more compact.  I think it is more likely that we will see a map with a retooled NC-12 and two triad/central NC democratic districts, as opposed to only one Triangle district and a Democratic district in the SE.  The downside from the GOP perspective is that Brad Miller would likely take the second safe Triangle district, and they would be unable to return the favor for the inappropriate way he treated them during the 2001 redistricting.   

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal.  McIntyre voted to repeal HCR, after all.  The problem is that he already knows that he would likely lose, so he might give up on NC-07 and  run in one of the neighboring 55% McCain districts instead.  Obviously this would be very counterproductive for the GOP map drawers if he managed to win.

[Brittain33]

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal. 

How might you put McIntyre in a 60+% Obama district given where he lives and the politics of his part of the state? Wouldn't that require putting him in a district that essentially already belongs to another rep, like Butterfield or Price?

[Dgov]

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal.  McIntyre voted to repeal HCR, after all.  The problem is that he already knows that he would likely lose, so he might give up on NC-07 and  run in one of the neighboring 55% McCain districts instead.  Obviously this would be very counterproductive for the GOP map drawers if he managed to win.

But the question is can he win in such a district?  HIs current one is like 50% McCain, and he won a narrow victory last year.  Put him in a 58-ish% McCain District (which is fairly easy to do) and I don't think he'll survive, if not in 2012 then the next time the Democrats don't have a good national year.

[Skill and Chance]

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal. 

How might you put McIntyre in a 60+% Obama district given where he lives and the politics of his part of the state? Wouldn't that require putting him in a district that essentially already belongs to another rep, like Butterfield or Price?

I know I've seen legal maps with districts as Democratic as D+6, and possibly higher.  There is actually a substantial Democratic base in the Fayetteville and Lumberton areas.  Also, it is possible to draw NC-07 as a 3rd majority-minority district.

[Skill and Chance]

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal.  McIntyre voted to repeal HCR, after all.  The problem is that he already knows that he would likely lose, so he might give up on NC-07 and  run in one of the neighboring 55% McCain districts instead.  Obviously this would be very counterproductive for the GOP map drawers if he managed to win.

But the question is can he win in such a district?  HIs current one is like 50% McCain, and he won a narrow victory last year.  Put him in a 58-ish% McCain District (which is fairly easy to do) and I don't think he'll survive, if not in 2012 then the next time the Democrats don't have a good national year.

McIntyre is currently in a R+5 district.  I don't remember the McCain margin over Obama, but I would imagine it was stronger for McCain than 50%.  I still think the GOP would be better off giving McIntyre an R+7 to R+10 district and hoping he loses.  It's better to have a second Democratic vote sink available to the Triangle, where the GOP could have another Fairfax, VA on it's hands in a few years due to rapid science/tech industry growth and in-migration of educated northerners.

[nclib]

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal. 

How might you put McIntyre in a 60+% Obama district given where he lives and the politics of his part of the state? Wouldn't that require putting him in a district that essentially already belongs to another rep, like Butterfield or Price?

I know I've seen legal maps with districts as Democratic as D+6, and possibly higher.  There is actually a substantial Democratic base in the Fayetteville and Lumberton areas.  Also, it is possible to draw NC-07 as a 3rd majority-minority district.

Democratic, yes, but my concern is, will such areas be liberal enough to field (and vote for) a challenger to McIntyre?

In the poll, I voted for Price, McIntyre, and Shuler.

[krazen1211]

I also think the final map will be 9-4, opening up enough opportunities for pick-ups while keeping the GOP incumbents reasonably safe.  I have a couple of issues with your map, though:

1. High ranking NC Republicans in the state legislature have expressed a strong desire for compacting the districts, particularly by redrawing NC-12 as a VRA district within Mecklenberg County, or at least within metro Charlotte.  They probably have a winning case from a good-government perspective and it is still possible to draw a 9-4 map with a southern tier/Charlotte incarnation of NC-12.  The difference is that the 4th Democratic leaning district ends up in the Research Triangle/Greensboro area, adjacent to NC-4, and it should end up being significantly more compact.  I think it is more likely that we will see a map with a retooled NC-12 and two triad/central NC democratic districts, as opposed to only one Triangle district and a Democratic district in the SE.  The downside from the GOP perspective is that Brad Miller would likely take the second safe Triangle district, and they would be unable to return the favor for the inappropriate way he treated them during the 2001 redistricting.   

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal.  McIntyre voted to repeal HCR, after all.  The problem is that he already knows that he would likely lose, so he might give up on NC-07 and  run in one of the neighboring 55% McCain districts instead.  Obviously this would be very counterproductive for the GOP map drawers if he managed to win.

What you're describing is a much more dangerous 9-4 map than what I have, because you're stuck cracking Fayetville. There should be pressure within the NC delegation to maintain the existing NC-12.

And I don't think (2) is necessarily guaranteed. There are occasional Republicans like Walter Jones who sit in heavily Republican districts who vote moderately. The same is true with Dan Lipinski and Steve Lynch. He's the incumbent and has a base here.

If he runs in the 55% district next door, he'll probably party switch first, which is fine.

[krazen1211]

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal. 

How might you put McIntyre in a 60+% Obama district given where he lives and the politics of his part of the state? Wouldn't that require putting him in a district that essentially already belongs to another rep, like Butterfield or Price?

I gave him a 60% district on my map. It can hit about 62% if you utterly chop all those counties, but I figure I did enough. Maybe a finger into Union County to grab Monroe and maybe skim some McCain Cumberland County precincts off.

[krazen1211]

Democratic, yes, but my concern is, will such areas be liberal enough to field (and vote for) a challenger to McIntyre?

In the poll, I voted for Price, McIntyre, and Shuler.

I think the answer to this is no, which is why I'd rather pack him and let him figure out what he wants to do.

[rbt48]

Won't the Republican Legislature have to deal with a veto from Gov Purdue and reach some form of compromise for redistricting?  It is not like they have veto-proof majorities in either chamber.

[krazen1211]

Won't the Republican Legislature have to deal with a veto from Gov Purdue and reach some form of compromise for redistricting?  It is not like they have veto-proof majorities in either chamber.

Nope. In NC the governor cannot veto redistricting.

[Skill and Chance]

I also think the final map will be 9-4, opening up enough opportunities for pick-ups while keeping the GOP incumbents reasonably safe.  I have a couple of issues with your map, though:

1. High ranking NC Republicans in the state legislature have expressed a strong desire for compacting the districts, particularly by redrawing NC-12 as a VRA district within Mecklenberg County, or at least within metro Charlotte.  They probably have a winning case from a good-government perspective and it is still possible to draw a 9-4 map with a southern tier/Charlotte incarnation of NC-12.  The difference is that the 4th Democratic leaning district ends up in the Research Triangle/Greensboro area, adjacent to NC-4, and it should end up being significantly more compact.  I think it is more likely that we will see a map with a retooled NC-12 and two triad/central NC democratic districts, as opposed to only one Triangle district and a Democratic district in the SE.  The downside from the GOP perspective is that Brad Miller would likely take the second safe Triangle district, and they would be unable to return the favor for the inappropriate way he treated them during the 2001 redistricting.   

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal.  McIntyre voted to repeal HCR, after all.  The problem is that he already knows that he would likely lose, so he might give up on NC-07 and  run in one of the neighboring 55% McCain districts instead.  Obviously this would be very counterproductive for the GOP map drawers if he managed to win.

What you're describing is a much more dangerous 9-4 map than what I have, because you're stuck cracking Fayetville. There should be pressure within the NC delegation to maintain the existing NC-12.

And I don't think (2) is necessarily guaranteed. There are occasional Republicans like Walter Jones who sit in heavily Republican districts who vote moderately. The same is true with Dan Lipinski and Steve Lynch. He's the incumbent and has a base here.

If he runs in the 55% district next door, he'll probably party switch first, which is fine.

If the district is majority-minority, or within 5% of that, then identity politics would probably be enough to generate a primary challenge. 

Sure, cracking Fayetteville carries its own risks, but your teal and gray districts are going to be demographic traps for the GOP by 2020.  Fayetteville isn't growing nearly as much as those areas are.   

[krazen1211]

I also think the final map will be 9-4, opening up enough opportunities for pick-ups while keeping the GOP incumbents reasonably safe.  I have a couple of issues with your map, though:

1. High ranking NC Republicans in the state legislature have expressed a strong desire for compacting the districts, particularly by redrawing NC-12 as a VRA district within Mecklenberg County, or at least within metro Charlotte.  They probably have a winning case from a good-government perspective and it is still possible to draw a 9-4 map with a southern tier/Charlotte incarnation of NC-12.  The difference is that the 4th Democratic leaning district ends up in the Research Triangle/Greensboro area, adjacent to NC-4, and it should end up being significantly more compact.  I think it is more likely that we will see a map with a retooled NC-12 and two triad/central NC democratic districts, as opposed to only one Triangle district and a Democratic district in the SE.  The downside from the GOP perspective is that Brad Miller would likely take the second safe Triangle district, and they would be unable to return the favor for the inappropriate way he treated them during the 2001 redistricting.   

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal.  McIntyre voted to repeal HCR, after all.  The problem is that he already knows that he would likely lose, so he might give up on NC-07 and  run in one of the neighboring 55% McCain districts instead.  Obviously this would be very counterproductive for the GOP map drawers if he managed to win.

What you're describing is a much more dangerous 9-4 map than what I have, because you're stuck cracking Fayetville. There should be pressure within the NC delegation to maintain the existing NC-12.

And I don't think (2) is necessarily guaranteed. There are occasional Republicans like Walter Jones who sit in heavily Republican districts who vote moderately. The same is true with Dan Lipinski and Steve Lynch. He's the incumbent and has a base here.

If he runs in the 55% district next door, he'll probably party switch first, which is fine.

If the district is majority-minority, or within 5% of that, then identity politics would probably be enough to generate a primary challenge. 

Sure, cracking Fayetteville carries its own risks, but your teal and gray districts are going to be demographic traps for the GOP by 2020.  Fayetteville isn't growing nearly as much as those areas are.   

Hmm. All those precincts in those 2 districts are about 50/50 are so. I figured most of the liberal growth would be in the Dem districts.

Growth isn't always bad; AZ-6 holds a lot of GOP growth.

Do you have a 2004/2008 precinct map?

[Frodo]

Now that the new districts have been drawn and (apparently) approved by the Justice Department, is everyone still holding to their original predictions?  

[krazen1211]

Now that the new districts have been drawn and (apparently) approved by the Justice Department, is everyone still holding to their original predictions?  

It turns out the legislature did a better job than all of us.

[BigSkyBob]

Where is the "None of the Above" option?  Price and Miller could split the White vote leaving room for a minority candidate.

[Miles]

Where is the "None of the Above" option?  Price and Miller could split the White vote leaving room for a minority candidate.

You might or might not realize this, but people vote based on things other than race...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also North Carolina has primary runoffs.

[BigSkyBob]

Also North Carolina has primary runoffs.

I thought only if the winner had less than 40% of the vote. In any case, I would imagine that if Price and Miller finished second and third the pressure for them to not contest the runoff would be immense.