European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[DavidB.]

https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1024535893451964417

Okay, and I have a bridge to sell to you guys. Big spoiler: Jobbik in EPP isn't going to happen.

[DavidB.]

Which group shall N-VA join. It does not feel natural ally of Lega.

The Lega are in ENF and the N-VA are in ECR, so they're currently not in the same group in the first place. I think it's not unlikely the N-VA will be leaving ECR after the Tories are gone and PiS will take over the place: the group will be dominated by right-wing populists of a different, more nativist and anti-establishment type than the N-VA. I guess N-VA could join the EPP or ALDE, with EPP being more likely (but CD&V or MR/Open VLD would have to be okay with it, which is why it didn't happen last time; perhaps it's different now that they have been in a coalition for four years). But they could stay in ECR too.

I'm placing my bets on Dutch Forum voor Democratie, who are likely to win 2-3 seats, joining ECR. Their youth movement, JFVD, are already in the process of being associated with the European Young Conservatives, ECR's youth movement. After the UK Tories are gone, it's probably a right fit for FVD. Associating themselves with somewhat less controversial RRWPs like Finnish PS, Swedish SD and Danish DF seems like a good move. Dutch CU-SGP are already in ECR but I don't think the SGP would mind sitting with FVD; the CU representative might be less happy, however, and I don't know if they could veto it. Though FVD arguably fit much better in ECR than CU and will probably bring more seats with them.

[DavidB.]

Sensei has told in Finnish newspapers that right of EPP parties shall form a new alliance after next EP elections (in order to avoid the fragmentation). The problem is that EPP and SD are ready  to give influence for ECR group but have banned (EFDD and ENF)., two openly Putinist, groups from relevant posts in parliament.  So at least two groups are likely.

I think this was discussed before. I would really like for a big-tent euroskeptical group to be formed, led by the big delegations of Lega, AfD, Fidesz, PiS and FN (or whatever the hell they call themselves these days), but I am skeptical: I believe it when I see it. The differences are rather big, and many ECR parties aren't going to associate themselves with parties like AfD or FN. In the end, I expect ECR and ENF to stick around and for EFD parties to pick either of these; Fidesz might join either of them, but I believe that when I see it too.

[DavidB.]

Is the ECR group even likely to stay together? I could see it being rebranded depending on the results.

Also, FvD seems like it would be the kind of party to not associate with any of the mainstream groups. Baudet seems to be taking his own path, and meeting with Jerry Taylor probably isn’t going to make any mainstream group actively seek him out.

Baudet knows he has to associate himself with a group: it's just the smart thing to do in terms of financial support and speaking time in the EP, and he likes the idea of European nationalist parties being connected in the first place. Some of his comments as well as his meeting with Jared Taylor might cause some ECR parties to have second thoughts about FVD joining, but on the other hand, it's not as Finnish PS leader Jussi Halla-aho has never made any deeply controversial comments, let alone some of the Eastern European parties in the group.

And FVD already approved their youth movement JFVD associating itself with EYC: a JFVD delegation took part in an EYC conference in Warsaw. This was absolutely approved by Baudet himself, as JFVD are not democratic and the chairman of JFVD is Baudet's political assistant in parliament. Which is a good thing, as there is a risk JFVD could turn into a second Blue Awakening (Estonian EKRE's youth movement that has gone alt-right, inviting Jared Taylor and Millennial Woes to a conference in Tallin and subsequently getting kicked out of EYC) or Swedish SD youth (ultimately kicked out of the party) if democratization were to happen, which could seriously damage the party's image.

[DavidB.]

Biggest issue will be support of Putin's agenda on making Europe small again. I do not think all East European parties will support it.

I'm going to ignore the unnecessary rhetoric, but your point is valid: ECR are quite atlanticist, and FVD's skepticism of the sanctions against Russia may be a big stumbling block between ECR and FVD. Then again, in the EP there is quite a bit more tolerance for vast intra-group differences, so we will have to see how much it matters. But this could be an issue, I agree.

[DavidB.]

CDA supports Weber. Buma tweeted: Het CDA steunt @ManfredWeber als Spitzenkandidaat voor de Europese verkiezingen van 2019. Hij heeft de afgelopen jaren zijn kwaliteiten bewezen als leider van de @EPP fractie en is als geen ander in staat om onze gemeenschappelijke waarden te beschermen.

Which means: The CDA supports Manfred Weber as leading candidate for the 2019 European elections. Over the course of the past years, he has proven his qualities as leader of the @EPP parliamentary group, and like no other, he is capable of protecting our common values.

[DavidB.]

I think ECR and ENF, which both have a pretty solid core, will stay around, but EFD will probably be gone.

By now ECR parties know that the Tories will be gone and that PiS will probably lead the group, but still the Sweden Democrats have moved there. This might also suggest some intra-Nordic talks, indicating DF and PS will stay. Regardless, there is quite a number of (mostly Eastern European) parties that won't be eager to join ENF but is too euroskeptic for EPP (or ALDE). ECR seems to be their natural home. I think N-VA could leave, but I don't see why others would. Small chance of the one CU representative going to EPP, I guess, but still very unlikely.

As for ENF, they should be safe. FN, PVV, AfD, VB and the Lega will stay in, Czech SPD will definitely join, and then they only need the FPÖ to stay in (still think they're going nowhere, ECR parties don't want to be associated with the FPÖ) - otherwise some independent (or Slovak SNS) might join them, and there is still a chance of Fidesz joining too.

Then it is the question what will happen on the far-left (GUE/NGL split?) and among liberals: will LREM establish their own group or stay in ALDE? In the first case, what will ALDE members that cannot realistically move to LREM (VVD, V, FDP, ANO, maybe the Estonian Reformists) do?

[DavidB.]

If Macron draws enough left-liberals away, M5S might actually join ALDE.

So what's left in ALDE would be largely based on the Dutch VVD, German FDP and Danish Venstre. I'm sure they'll love being associated with M5S' reckless financial policies.

[DavidB.]

Macron creating his own group could be a blessing from the heavens for N-VA: Open VLD (and MR?) could move there, and the N-VA would be a perfect ideological fit for a group with VVD, FDP and V. But are Open VLD generally just as Eurofederalist as Verhofstadt is? And how eurofederalist are MR? Would they be likely to join a Macron group or stay behind in ALDE with the more right-wing parties?

[DavidB.]

Do not forget AFD, the "big prize" in post election regroupings.

Their move to ENF seems a done deal to me, unless a whole regrouping will take place and all these euroskeptic parties manage to unite into something entirely new - wouldn't hold my breath for that to happen though.

[DavidB.]

Matteo Renzi: "We should build a European coalition with Macron, Greens, Liberals and Tsipras. Frans Timmermans should be our candidate for Commission President".

https://www.huffingtonpost.it/2018/09/20/alle-europee-con-macron-e-tsipras-e-timmermans-candidato-alla-presidenza-della-commissione_a_23534008/

Frans who? Manfred who? Do any of these people want a Commission with authority?

"Frans who" is the current Vice-President of the European Commission and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, not exactly a nobody.

[DavidB.]

Manfred Weber wants Bulgaria and Croatia in Schengen - obviously not looking for that GERB/HDZ vote for his candidacy.

[DavidB.]

ECR 80.1%
ENF 76%
EFD 68.3%
ALDE 35%
EPP 35%
GUE-NGL 23.7%
S&D 22%
G/EFA 19.9%

Parties:
Liberal-Conservative Reformists (Germany): 88.6%
SGP (Netherlands): 83.6%
PVV (Netherlands): 82.8% (voted for them in the EP14 election)
VMRO (Bulgaria): 82.2%
CU (Netherlands): 81.9%
AfD (Germany): 81.4%
DUP (UK): 80.7%
DF (Denmark): 80.1%
Conservatori e Riformisti (Italy): 79.9%
Svobodni (Czechia): 78.6%
Ordinary People (Slovakia): 76.9%
Finns Party (Finland): 76.7%
Lega (Italy): 76.3%
Sweden Democrats (Sweden): 75.6%
ODS (Czechia): 73.6%
FN (France): 73%

[DavidB.]

I was once polled for the Eurobarometer. First the polling company lady had to take a few minutes to explain to me in a positive way all the good things that the EU does. Then she asked me these questions on my opinion of the EU. Needless to say that's going to affect respondents' answers. I was astounded.

[DavidB.]

In S&D, First Vice President of the European Commission and former Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister Frans Timmermans (PvdA) is running against Maros Sefcovic of Slovak Smer, who has been a European Commissioner since 2009 and apparently is also a Vice President. According to Europe Elects, the Italian PD has endorsed Timmermans. I'm assuming Timmermans should be able to win this (the German SPD will probably support him, and there are not that many Central and Eastern European S&D parties that are strong), but it will be interesting to see the choice of PSOE, French and Portuguese PS, and PASOK (or whatever they're called today). After all, they might hold some grudges against the PvdA given Jeroen Dijsselbloem's stance during the Greek crisis. Though I remember Smer being quite harsh on the Greeks regarding budgetary discipline as well.

[DavidB.]

Of course Timmermans' real goal is not to lead the European Commission (virtually impossible as S&D's leading candidate given the abysmal polls for Social Democrats throughout Europe, but especially in France and Germany) but to be in pole position to succeed Mogherini as High Representative for Foreign Affairs. The question is whether the Dutch government is going to allow him to, given that the PvdA are in opposition and only have nine seats out of 150.

[DavidB.]

Of course Timmermans' real goal is not to lead the European Commission (virtually impossible as S&D's leading candidate given the abysmal polls for Social Democrats throughout Europe, but especially in France and Germany) but to be in pole position to succeed Mogherini as High Representative for Foreign Affairs. The question is whether the Dutch government is going to allow him to, given that the PvdA are in opposition and only have nine seats out of 150.

Will he at least run for PvdA in the EP elections? If he does, and does very well, I guess that might help him a bit

I think he won't (but he could), and while I think it would be good for the PvdA if he ran (they could probably syphon off quite a lot of pro-European D66/GL voters - which could also piss off these parties), it would make him look more partisan rather than statesmanlike, which could be counterproductive as the government ultimately decides who the European Commissioner will be. It's also quite a gamble. I don't think he wants to end up as an MEP if somehow he doesn't remain a Commissioner. And resigning as an MEP would be quite a bad look.

Timmermans' best characteristic vis-a-vis potential other candidates would probably be his "non-partisan"/"statesmanlike" position as an experienced and relatively widely respected European Commissioner. He could probably get a better position in the Commission than any candidate in Dutch politics, which could arguably be good for the country and the government's position within Europe too. Rutte is someone who could especially be swayed with this argument.

[DavidB.]

Did you guys know that Manfred Weber is the European version of Beto O'Rourke ?

This type of posts qualifies as spam, in my opinion.

[DavidB.]

Did you guys know that Manfred Weber is the European version of Beto O'Rourke ?

This type of posts qualifies as spam, in my opinion.

Why ?

Because it's a completely nonsensical detour that does not pertain to the subject of the thread.

[DavidB.]

So Timmermans will run as the leading PvdA candidate after all, as this is apparently required. Fun.

Meanwhile, FVD leading candidate for the EP Derk Jan Eppink has harshly criticized ENF and says they are orienting themselves to join potential groups with the intention not to just block things, but to prevent Eurofederalism through compromise. Needless to say it's fair to assume that it's not going to be ENF, but probably ECR.

[DavidB.]

Polish Ruch Narodowy and Wolnosc are teaming up for the Euros. As far as I understand, RN is both ultra-Catholic and far-right nationalist whereas Wolnosc is ultra-libertarian. What are their chances of getting in? Would they be ENF material or are they too extreme even for them?

[DavidB.]

Amy news regarding AFD? Is ENF a likley group for Them or might ECR be their Choice?

Almost definitely going to be ENF.

[DavidB.]

Kurz announced today that the ÖVP will use preference votes cast in the EU elections to determine which of their candidates will get a seat in Brussels.

This works as followed:

The ÖVP will create their EU list of candidates by the end of February. It is not yet clear if Othmar Karas will once again be their frontrunner, as he has often attacked the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition as "anti-European" and "too tough on immigration".

It is assumed that 5-7 ÖVP members will be elected to Brussels in the May 26 election.

But depending on how many preference votes the candidates get, someone who is 10th on the list can also move up to 6th place for example.

There will be no thresholds for ÖVP candidates: the 5-7 candidates with the most preference votes from Austrian voters will head to Brussels.

The ÖVP thinks that a preference vote campaign will increase turnout among ÖVP-voters and win them the election by a big margin.

https://orf.at/stories/3105548

How is that legal? I assume there are rules for this; i.e. that you have to reach a certain % of the vote in order to be eligible for a seat through preferential votes. So will they sort of force everyone to sign something that isn't technically legally binding and just hope they abide by it? Or do the seats belong to the party even from a legal standpoint?

[DavidB.]

Vox-NI: 13% (

is exactly my mood when I see this. Definitely think they're heading to ENF rather than NI though.

[DavidB.]

YouGov poll Denmark

Social Democrats 22.5% 3 seats
SPP 6.3% 1 seat

Liberals 19.6% 4 seats
Conservatives 4.8% 0 seats
Liberal Alliance 4.5% 0 seats

Red-Green Alliance 8.0% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 5.4% 1 seat

Social Liberals 6.1% 1 seat
Alternative 3.7% 0 seats

DPP 18.0% 3 seats

Are NB not standing or just not being polled?