Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Adam Griffin]

OH-11 is straight-up attacking a black woman! Damn!

Gurllllll!


https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1422713551798652929

[Calthrina950]

Not the anti-trans microagression lady. 😭

She's not anti-trans. Stop being ridiculous.

Sis, there are receipts, it’s on video, microagressions were committed. Even with muh apology, she still went to an LGBT forum and committed them.

"Microaggressions"? That's the type of language that Democrats need to shy away from. And Brown is not a transphobe, as I've noted before.

[Adam Griffin]

Another Cuyahoga dump from somewhere: 183-165 Brown (assuming for the time being that this is still mail).

[TML]

Let me remind everyone that in Montana's 2018 Democratic House primary, John Heenan took an early lead when his stronghold of Yellowstone County came in early, but Kathleen Williams captured the lead when her stronghold of Gallatin County came in later and she eventually won that contest overall. So for this race, because only a small percentage of the expected vote has been reported as of this moment, anything is still possible in terms of the outcome.

[Adam Griffin]

BTW, just in case anybody is curious:

Cuyahoga Early In-Person Vote:
Turner - 3019 (52.7%)
Brown - 2380 (41.5%)
Other - 332 (5.8%)

Cuyahoga Mail Vote:
Brown - 11461 (51.4%)
Turner - 7135 (32.0%)
Other - 3679 (16.5%)

Lots of anti-Turner mail vote appears to have been wasted.

No ED vote as of yet (at least from the Cuyahoga's election board website: still not sure about those last 350 votes or so).

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1422717586681344012?s=20

[Benjamin Frank]

More numbers in.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1422718218515488771

[Adam Griffin]

Another dump: including the 350 posted a few minutes ago, this batch was 920 Turner, 831 Brown (Cuyahoga & Summit combined).

[Oryxslayer]

Let me remind everyone that in Montana's 2018 Democratic House primary, John Heenan took an early lead when his stronghold of Yellowstone County came in early, but Kathleen Williams captured the lead when her stronghold of Gallatin County came in later and she eventually won that contest overall. So for this race, because only a small percentage of the expected vote has been reported as of this moment, anything is still possible in terms of the outcome.

Thing is the places with highest turnout in Cuyahoga are inside Brown's district. For Turner to benefit from this she would have to have a lock on Whites, and that would not be advisable either given the larger AA vote.

Anyway, Summit is 945-817 Turner on Eday with 33 Precincts.

[Adam Griffin]

Turner really close to flipping Summit right now (though it might not last):

Brown - 1941 (48.65%)
Turner - 1922 (48.17%)

33/82 precincts reporting

[W]

It's been a while. Let's go Nina!

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown 17,089 52.27%
Nina Turner 13,408 41.01%

But, Jeff Johnsonmania is going to pull this off!

[wbrocks67]

Turner appears to be slightly winning the E-day vote we have so far (not a whole lot though), so remains to be seen if it's enough to overcome the lead

[Lief 🗽]

This is closing fast, I’d put money on Turner right now.

[Adam Griffin]

Turner takes the lead in Summit (49.4-47.5):

[Benjamin Frank]

This is closing fast, I’d put money on Turner right now.

I don't think it's closing fast.

[DrScholl]

Things are closing, but it still looks fairly stagnant.

[W]

I'd put it 55/45 for Brown. It's certainly closing but it's a coinflip whether it's enough.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1422719522734284801

[W]

Turner now leading in Summit.

[Oryxslayer]

Summit is now 66/82 precincts, about 1K more votes total are expected from the county.

[Ferguson97]

So from what I understand this is shaping up to be like Arizona, where Turner/Trump continues to eat into Biden/Brown's lead but not enough to win?

[Santander]

Who else is following on TYT?

[Adam Griffin]

Turner still needs to beat Brown by 10 points among what likely remains to have a shot.