Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[GeneralMacArthur]

Nice to see some good news even if it is just an internal.  Lots of undecideds, and the momentum belongs to Brown.  PredictIt closed to 3-1 odds today based on this poll.  Would be really nice to see Turner fail at her cynical attempt to buy the seat by lying about everything but her name in millions of dollars worth of ads.

[bagelman]

I really think it's not safe for Turner at all anymore. People are underestimating the sinister power of machine politics. Many older and more conservative African American voters aren't really progressive at all.

Also, what about Akron and its own political machine? 

[Holmes]

Honestly don't even care about this election but pulling for Turner to win so GeneralMacArthur has a meltdown.

[GALeftist]

LMAO one Brown internal showing Brown losing by 7 points and suddenly everyone's ready to make this a tossup. I mean, come on, guys, Turner and Brown aren't even the only candidates in the race, Turner doesn't necessarily need to reach 50% to win. If a Brown internal not only can't get her ahead but can't even get her within 5 points I think it's pretty clear who the frontrunner is. Frankly, this makes me more confident Turner will win, if anything.

[CookieDamage]

LMAO one Brown internal showing Brown losing by 7 points and suddenly everyone's ready to make this a tossup. I mean, come on, guys, Turner and Brown aren't even the only candidates in the race, Turner doesn't necessarily need to reach 50% to win. If a Brown internal not only can't get her ahead but can't even get her within 5 points I think it's pretty clear who the frontrunner is. Frankly, this makes me more confident Turner will win, if anything.

Probably cuz the last poll had Brown down by like 30 lmao, it's not unwarranted to think of this race as being closer than previously imagined.

[beesley]

Apologies for the inane and predictable comment, but the genuinely most ridiculous thing is that we're still talking about the primary this late in the year.

[Calthrina950]

Apologies for the inane and predictable comment, but the genuinely most ridiculous thing is that we're still talking about the primary this late in the year.

Wasn't there a law that prevented DeWine from scheduling the special election earlier? If it weren't for that, this seat would have been filled by now.

[brucejoel99]

Apologies for the inane and predictable comment, but the genuinely most ridiculous thing is that we're still talking about the primary this late in the year.

Wasn't there a law that prevented DeWine from scheduling the special election earlier? If it weren't for that, this seat would have been filled by now.

There was, yes: by the time Fudge resigned from the House upon her confirmation to the Cabinet, the deadline to schedule a special primary/general for May/Aug. had already passed, & the next earliest opportunity for holding them was Aug./Nov.

[brucejoel99]

LMAO one Brown internal showing Brown losing by 7 points and suddenly everyone's ready to make this a tossup. I mean, come on, guys, Turner and Brown aren't even the only candidates in the race, Turner doesn't necessarily need to reach 50% to win. If a Brown internal not only can't get her ahead but can't even get her within 5 points I think it's pretty clear who the frontrunner is. Frankly, this makes me more confident Turner will win, if anything.

Probably cuz the last poll had Brown down by like 30 lmao, it's not unwarranted to think of this race as being closer than previously imagined.

Yeah, it frankly should've been obvious that Turner was never gonna win this thing by 30+ once the local party started to throw their whole weight behind Brown in order to try & stop Turner. Say what can be said about mUh EsTaBlIsHmEnT, but they're not exactly ones to just stand by & let a winnable seat get taken from them without a fight. It was always gonna narrow, but even though this Brown internal shows that she obviously has some momentum compared to even just last month, when Turner's internal had this race at 50-15, the fact that it's a Brown internal that still has her down by 7 after early voting has already started should still be considered a relatively good sign for Turner going into the home-stretch.

[Lief 🗽]

Yikes!
https://twitter.com/sollenbergerrc/status/1414575637868732417?s=21

[DrScholl]

LMAO one Brown internal showing Brown losing by 7 points and suddenly everyone's ready to make this a tossup. I mean, come on, guys, Turner and Brown aren't even the only candidates in the race, Turner doesn't necessarily need to reach 50% to win. If a Brown internal not only can't get her ahead but can't even get her within 5 points I think it's pretty clear who the frontrunner is. Frankly, this makes me more confident Turner will win, if anything.

Closing the gap that dramatically says a lot. This isn't the sort of district where progressive vs. establishment is going to be a deciding factor, it will be about who speaks to the district better and Brown has an opening there because Turner has relied a lot on out of state fundraising and is almost running a more national campaign. It's not out of the question for Brown to win this.

[GALeftist]

Re: closing the gap, I'm not saying that Brown has not done that, but the fact of the matter is that if her internals have her down by 7 she's probably down significantly, and there are only a few weeks left. Could she close the remainder? Of course she could, but it's worth noting a few things. First, it seems like a lot of Brown's growth so far has been from consolidating the non-Turner vote rather than getting Turner voters to switch; Turner's numbers in this latest Brown internal are virtually unchanged from her numbers back in Brown's April internal. However, that growth obviously has an upper limit. This latest poll has undecided at 14%, so in a two person race Brown would need to win those undecided voters by like a 3 to 1 margin to net the 7 points to close the remaining gap – more if we assume that this internal understated Turner's margin at this point. That's certainly not impossible, of course, but I definitely wouldn't bet on it happening. The other thing is that it's not a two person race – there are a couple dudes who no one cares about running but who will almost certainly take at least a point or two each, but Brown's campaign polled this as a head to head. I would imagine that this resulted in a little inflation of Brown's numbers than if they'd included those candidates.

My prediction is unchanged: probably about a 10-20% chance Brown wins, Likely Turner.

[BuckeyeNut]

LMAO one Brown internal showing Brown losing by 7 points and suddenly everyone's ready to make this a tossup. I mean, come on, guys, Turner and Brown aren't even the only candidates in the race, Turner doesn't necessarily need to reach 50% to win. If a Brown internal not only can't get her ahead but can't even get her within 5 points I think it's pretty clear who the frontrunner is. Frankly, this makes me more confident Turner will win, if anything.

Closing the gap that dramatically says a lot. This isn't the sort of district where progressive vs. establishment is going to be a deciding factor, it will be about who speaks to the district better and Brown has an opening there because Turner has relied a lot on out of state fundraising and is almost running a more national campaign. It's not out of the question for Brown to win this.

No, it does not because the comparison drawn is from a Turner internal to a Brown internal. Honestly, none of the public numbers have come from high-quality sources, but Turner should still win this by 10%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

🟤🟤🟤 Brown is gonna win this race

[GALeftist]

🟤🟤🟤 Brown is gonna win this race

I changed my mind on this one guys.

[Morning in Atlas]

Very funny watching the DNC try to cancel Turner for Maybe Not Voting Blue 5 years ago while elevating the worst of the #NeverBernie coalition. Or turning a blind eye to the people who actively backed Republicans over progressives.

[DrScholl]

Very funny watching the DNC try to cancel Turner for Maybe Not Voting Blue 5 years ago while elevating the worst of the #NeverBernie coalition. Or turning a blind eye to the people who actively backed Republicans over progressives.

Not letting Turner run unopposed is not canceling and I do think that her allegedly not voting Democratic is a valid topic of discussion when she is seeking the Democratic nomination in a heavily Democratic district.

[DrScholl]

LMAO one Brown internal showing Brown losing by 7 points and suddenly everyone's ready to make this a tossup. I mean, come on, guys, Turner and Brown aren't even the only candidates in the race, Turner doesn't necessarily need to reach 50% to win. If a Brown internal not only can't get her ahead but can't even get her within 5 points I think it's pretty clear who the frontrunner is. Frankly, this makes me more confident Turner will win, if anything.

Closing the gap that dramatically says a lot. This isn't the sort of district where progressive vs. establishment is going to be a deciding factor, it will be about who speaks to the district better and Brown has an opening there because Turner has relied a lot on out of state fundraising and is almost running a more national campaign. It's not out of the question for Brown to win this.

No, it does not because the comparison drawn is from a Turner internal to a Brown internal. Honestly, none of the public numbers have come from high-quality sources, but Turner should still win this by 10%.

No, you are misinformed. Brown's own previous internal had her way down and in comparison to that she has gained. Turner's internal has nothing to do with this.

A new internal poll by her top competitor, Cuyahoga County Democratic Chair Shontel Brown, suggests the Democratic primary race has tightened. In the survey, conducted in early July, Turner led with 43 percent, followed by Brown with 36 percent.

That 7-point gap is a much closer spread than earlier polling from both candidates. An April survey from Brown's campaign found her trailing Turner by 32 points, 42 percent to 10 percent.

[Morning in Atlas]

Very funny watching the DNC try to cancel Turner for Maybe Not Voting Blue 5 years ago while elevating the worst of the #NeverBernie coalition. Or turning a blind eye to the people who actively backed Republicans over progressives.

Not letting Turner run unopposed is not canceling and I do think that her allegedly not voting Democratic is a valid topic of discussion when she is seeking the Democratic nomination in a heavily Democratic district.

Sure, I can agree with all those things. I actually had Brown winning this race in the beginning because of how insular and Online the Bernieverse had been in 2020.

Where it starts to become "canceling" is when the national establishment blatantly steps in to try and save a failed candidate because of her transgressions. 5 years is a very long time - nobody ever questioned Kyrsten Sinema's commitment to the Democratic Party in her primary for the House. I can go on and on about the ex-Republicans that Dems have welcomed in over the years, but I know a good chunk of the anti-Nina people here didn't keep that same energy when Brad Ashford endorsed and campaigned with literal Republicans. Not "voting blue no matter who" only seems to be a cancellable offense when the "blue" is on the left.

It's also especially amusing when people like you attempt to "hold Nina accountable" when you gladly promised to do the same thing if the left got the nomination.

[wbrocks67]

This isn't even about progressive vs centrist.

Turner is literally just a bad candidate. She's been terrible for years. She was terrible 5 years, she's terrible now. That's the bottom line. That's why I think it's so funny she's suddenly trying to "moderate" when this is such a phony act given her actions from 2015 to 2020.

Turner thought she could buy this seat. Turns out she might not be able to.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Very funny watching the DNC try to cancel Turner for Maybe Not Voting Blue 5 years ago while elevating the worst of the #NeverBernie coalition. Or turning a blind eye to the people who actively backed Republicans over progressives.

Not letting Turner run unopposed is not canceling and I do think that her allegedly not voting Democratic is a valid topic of discussion when she is seeking the Democratic nomination in a heavily Democratic district.

Sure, I can agree with all those things. I actually had Brown winning this race in the beginning because of how insular and Online the Bernieverse had been in 2020.

Where it starts to become "canceling" is when the national establishment blatantly steps in to try and save a failed candidate because of her transgressions. 5 years is a very long time - nobody ever questioned Kyrsten Sinema's commitment to the Democratic Party in her primary for the House. I can go on and on about the ex-Republicans that Dems have welcomed in over the years, but I know a good chunk of the anti-Nina people here didn't keep that same energy when Brad Ashford endorsed and campaigned with literal Republicans. Not "voting blue no matter who" only seems to be a cancellable offense when the "blue" is on the left.

It's also especially amusing when people like you attempt to "hold Nina accountable" when you gladly promised to do the same thing if the left got the nomination.

So how is Brown a "failed candidate"?  Turner started this race with a massive advantage due to her pre-existing massive fundraising network, guaranteed heavy-hitter endorsements, and strong connections with PACs and journalists in Bernie's orbit.  Meanwhile I remember when Shontel's tweets were getting single-digit likes and I was the only person retweeting her.  The fact that we're even talking about this as a competitive race makes the Brown campaign a major success.

Also the difference between Nina and Sinema is Nina burned a lot more bridges and not only has she made zero effort to repair them (she just lies and says "I always loved these bridges and never burned them") she's still going around burning them under the radar!  She was applauding Killer Mike for calling Clyburn "incredibly stupid" and then when he endorsed Brown she dismissed him as "the past" and "corporate establishment"

[Morning in Atlas]

Very funny watching the DNC try to cancel Turner for Maybe Not Voting Blue 5 years ago while elevating the worst of the #NeverBernie coalition. Or turning a blind eye to the people who actively backed Republicans over progressives.

Not letting Turner run unopposed is not canceling and I do think that her allegedly not voting Democratic is a valid topic of discussion when she is seeking the Democratic nomination in a heavily Democratic district.

Sure, I can agree with all those things. I actually had Brown winning this race in the beginning because of how insular and Online the Bernieverse had been in 2020.

Where it starts to become "canceling" is when the national establishment blatantly steps in to try and save a failed candidate because of her transgressions. 5 years is a very long time - nobody ever questioned Kyrsten Sinema's commitment to the Democratic Party in her primary for the House. I can go on and on about the ex-Republicans that Dems have welcomed in over the years, but I know a good chunk of the anti-Nina people here didn't keep that same energy when Brad Ashford endorsed and campaigned with literal Republicans. Not "voting blue no matter who" only seems to be a cancellable offense when the "blue" is on the left.

It's also especially amusing when people like you attempt to "hold Nina accountable" when you gladly promised to do the same thing if the left got the nomination.

So how is Brown a "failed candidate"?  Turner started this race with a massive advantage due to her pre-existing massive fundraising network, guaranteed heavy-hitter endorsements, and strong connections with PACs and journalists in Bernie's orbit.  Meanwhile I remember when Shontel's tweets were getting single-digit likes and I was the only person retweeting her.  The fact that we're even talking about this as a competitive race makes the Brown campaign a major success.

Because Brown should have had local endorsements locked down. If Twitter likes translated to votes, we'd be welcoming in President Sanders and VP Turner's second term.

[wbrocks67]

Also, no one is trying to "cancel" Turner. Stop being ridiculous.

From the getgo, Turner was the one acting as if she *deserved* the nomination. Maybe it's good someone knocked her down a few pegs and made her realize she's not inevitable here.

[Morning in Atlas]

Also, no one is trying to "cancel" Turner. Stop being ridiculous.

From the getgo, Turner was the one acting as if she *deserved* the nomination. Maybe it's good someone knocked her down a few pegs and made her realize she's not inevitable here.

Repeating the same argument I already refuted doesn't make it any more true. Given the DNC's continued platforming of others who conditionalized their vote from the right, it's clear that Turner is being cancelled because they don't want another progressive in the House.

[wbrocks67]

Also, no one is trying to "cancel" Turner. Stop being ridiculous.

From the getgo, Turner was the one acting as if she *deserved* the nomination. Maybe it's good someone knocked her down a few pegs and made her realize she's not inevitable here.

Repeating the same argument I already refuted doesn't make it any more true. Given the DNC's continued platforming of others who conditionalized their vote from the right, it's clear that Turner is being cancelled because they don't want another progressive in the House.

See this is where the far left loses people. Shontel Brown is not a republican. It's always the 'far left' vs everyone else in the Democratic Party. You know you can be a progressive and be a Democrat without being like Nina Turner, right?