Qunnipiac: Trump +5 in TX, Biden +1 in OH

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think the Court battle will help Trump in the Sunbelt while hurt him in the Midwest(around point for both)

[OSR stands with Israel]

I can't believe either of these. No. No.

2020 is not 2012.

However Ohio going Dem would be incredibly based

This poll still isnt 2012 lol ,


Romney won Texas by 16 points while losing Ohio by 2 points (In 2012 it would be almost unimaginable to say Texas would be in single digits too). Also Romney was losing Ohio in polls even when national polls would show him ahead so no this poll is still nothing like 2012

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cruz at this time in 2018 was polling at around 9 points over Beto. Also Biden is planning on going online with ads in early October here. Still time.

The difference is Biden is not gonna campaign as hard as Beto did in Texas as Texas is not gonna be the tipping point state while TX-Sen in 2018 was considered a potential tipping point state(along with IN, and MO which is why Democrats put in a lot of resources in that race).

[OSR stands with Israel]

RCP 2018 average: Cruz +6.8 > off by 4.2% towards D
583 2018 final forecast: Cruz +4.9-5.3 > off by 2.3-2.7% towards D

538's poll average right now is Trump +2.0 and their forecast is Trump +4.0. If we see the same 2-4% problem again, Biden wins.

I wish Q-pac released their RV # too. I have a feeling the LV model is the problem here.

By this definition, WI is tilt Trump as he is  down 6.6 points in the RCP average vs 6.5 last time and if you apply same polling error than Trump wins WI.


Anyway while RCP overestimated Trump in Texas by 2.7 points in 2016, 538 underestimated him by 0.5 points as 538 had him winning Texas by 8.5 points compared to the 9 he won by.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/