Dole 1996/Gore 2000 counties

[Calthrina950]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

It is astounding that there were so few Dole-Gore counties, given that 854 counties flipped from Clinton to Bush. 2000 locked us into the county map alignment that has persisted to the present day.

[Calthrina950]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

It is astounding that there were so few Dole-Gore counties, given that 854 counties flipped from Clinton to Bush. 2000 locked us into the county map alignment that has persisted to the present day.

Not sure how surprising it is..Maryland is the only state where Dole did better. How many Mondale '84/Bush '88 counties are there? (Actually, there is at least one in Tennessee, which is the only state where Mondale did better than Dukakis).

The magnitude of the Republican gains is what surprises me. But I can understand your broader point, considering that in 1952, Eisenhower gained hundreds of counties that Truman had won, while Stevenson only picked up one of Dewey's counties-Dawson County, Georgia (in addition to the Thurmond counties that he won, splitting them with Eisenhower).

[Calthrina950]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

It is astounding that there were so few Dole-Gore counties, given that 854 counties flipped from Clinton to Bush. 2000 locked us into the county map alignment that has persisted to the present day.

It's pretty amazing the national swing was only 8% considering how many counties switched, only 300 counties switched to Obama in 2008 when the swing was almost 10% from 2004-2008. The 1996-2000 swing really realigned the nation with major metro areas trending D and small towns trending R really hard relative to the national shift.

That much is true. Rural areas truly did become firmly Republican beginning in 2000 (and metro areas firmly Democratic). Obama would have won a clear majority of counties in 2008 if the swing had been more universal, like those prior to 2000 were. And unfortunately, it looks like this pattern, which has already lasted through five presidential elections, will remain in place, with further internal changes of course, for the foreseeable future, barring another realignment comparable to or greater than that of 2000.

[Calthrina950]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

I did not think it was that few, wow

Only 2 congressional districts went for McCain 08 and Obama 12: Staten Island and one of the south Florida districts.

Which one was it? Curbelo's former seat?

[Calthrina950]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

It is astounding that there were so few Dole-Gore counties, given that 854 counties flipped from Clinton to Bush. 2000 locked us into the county map alignment that has persisted to the present day.

It's pretty amazing the national swing was only 8% considering how many counties switched, only 300 counties switched to Obama in 2008 when the swing was almost 10% from 2004-2008. The 1996-2000 swing really realigned the nation with major metro areas trending D and small towns trending R really hard relative to the national shift.

That much is true. Rural areas truly did become firmly Republican beginning in 2000 (and metro areas firmly Democratic). Obama would have won a clear majority of counties in 2008 if the swing had been more universal, like those prior to 2000 were. And unfortunately, it looks like this pattern, which has already lasted through five presidential elections, will remain in place, with further internal changes of course, for the foreseeable future, barring another realignment comparable to or greater than that of 2000.

I wonder what alienated rural America from the Democratic party in 1997-2000. Was it Republican suburbanites moving to more rural areas? Young people moving out? Generational turnover? The rise of Fox News? Kyoto Protocol?

Thinking about this further, it seems that the Monica Lewinsky scandal and Clinton's subsequent impeachment helped to alienate many rural, socially conservative voters from the Democratic Party. In 2000, George W. Bush ran as a "compassionate conservative", capitalizing on the desire from voters for a return of "normalcy" and scandal-free "civility" to the White House. And because he identified as a devout evangelical Christian and was a Southerner himself, he was able to appeal to those voters. Al Gore tried as best he could to distance himself from Clinton, but it didn't work, and his own views on climate change and energy only helped to seal the deal.