Dole 1996/Gore 2000 counties

[darklordoftech]

Where did they tend to be?

[DPKdebator]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

[Mr.Phips]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

Interestingly, Gore outperforming Clinton in Orange County is a large part of what tricked the exit polls into believing that Gore won the state (exit poll had Gore winning 52%-46%).

[Calthrina950]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

It is astounding that there were so few Dole-Gore counties, given that 854 counties flipped from Clinton to Bush. 2000 locked us into the county map alignment that has persisted to the present day.

[darklordoftech]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

It is astounding that there were so few Dole-Gore counties, given that 854 counties flipped from Clinton to Bush. 2000 locked us into the county map alignment that has persisted to the present day.

I could see an “anti-soccer-mom” voter or a voter who likes war heroes being a Dole-Gore voter. 1996 was the last election in which Fox News didn’t play much a role.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

It is astounding that there were so few Dole-Gore counties, given that 854 counties flipped from Clinton to Bush. 2000 locked us into the county map alignment that has persisted to the present day.

Not sure how surprising it is..Maryland is the only state where Dole did better. How many Mondale '84/Bush '88 counties are there? (Actually, there is at least one in Tennessee, which is the only state where Mondale did better than Dukakis).

[Calthrina950]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

It is astounding that there were so few Dole-Gore counties, given that 854 counties flipped from Clinton to Bush. 2000 locked us into the county map alignment that has persisted to the present day.

Not sure how surprising it is..Maryland is the only state where Dole did better. How many Mondale '84/Bush '88 counties are there? (Actually, there is at least one in Tennessee, which is the only state where Mondale did better than Dukakis).

The magnitude of the Republican gains is what surprises me. But I can understand your broader point, considering that in 1952, Eisenhower gained hundreds of counties that Truman had won, while Stevenson only picked up one of Dewey's counties-Dawson County, Georgia (in addition to the Thurmond counties that he won, splitting them with Eisenhower).

[Annatar]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

It is astounding that there were so few Dole-Gore counties, given that 854 counties flipped from Clinton to Bush. 2000 locked us into the county map alignment that has persisted to the present day.

It's pretty amazing the national swing was only 8% considering how many counties switched, only 300 counties switched to Obama in 2008 when the swing was almost 10% from 2004-2008. The 1996-2000 swing really realigned the nation with major metro areas trending D and small towns trending R really hard relative to the national shift.

[Calthrina950]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

It is astounding that there were so few Dole-Gore counties, given that 854 counties flipped from Clinton to Bush. 2000 locked us into the county map alignment that has persisted to the present day.

It's pretty amazing the national swing was only 8% considering how many counties switched, only 300 counties switched to Obama in 2008 when the swing was almost 10% from 2004-2008. The 1996-2000 swing really realigned the nation with major metro areas trending D and small towns trending R really hard relative to the national shift.

That much is true. Rural areas truly did become firmly Republican beginning in 2000 (and metro areas firmly Democratic). Obama would have won a clear majority of counties in 2008 if the swing had been more universal, like those prior to 2000 were. And unfortunately, it looks like this pattern, which has already lasted through five presidential elections, will remain in place, with further internal changes of course, for the foreseeable future, barring another realignment comparable to or greater than that of 2000.

[darklordoftech]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

It is astounding that there were so few Dole-Gore counties, given that 854 counties flipped from Clinton to Bush. 2000 locked us into the county map alignment that has persisted to the present day.

It's pretty amazing the national swing was only 8% considering how many counties switched, only 300 counties switched to Obama in 2008 when the swing was almost 10% from 2004-2008. The 1996-2000 swing really realigned the nation with major metro areas trending D and small towns trending R really hard relative to the national shift.

That much is true. Rural areas truly did become firmly Republican beginning in 2000 (and metro areas firmly Democratic). Obama would have won a clear majority of counties in 2008 if the swing had been more universal, like those prior to 2000 were. And unfortunately, it looks like this pattern, which has already lasted through five presidential elections, will remain in place, with further internal changes of course, for the foreseeable future, barring another realignment comparable to or greater than that of 2000.

I wonder what alienated rural America from the Democratic party in 1997-2000. Was it Republican suburbanites moving to more rural areas? Young people moving out? Generational turnover? The rise of Fox News? Kyoto Protocol?

[Annatar]

I think it was the 2 parties becoming more clearly delineated on social issues, Clinton in the 1990's to some extent had managed to keep the realignment from occurring via his policies on issues like crime.

[darklordoftech]

I think it was the 2 parties becoming more clearly delineated on social issues, Clinton in the 1990's to some extent had managed to keep the realignment from occurring via his policies on issues like crime.

Gore made it clear in 2000 that he supported Clinton’s crime policies, and I don’t recall Clinton being socially conservative on any issue besides crime. Clinton was as anti-gun as any Democrat today, if not more so.

[Annatar]

I think it was the 2 parties becoming more clearly delineated on social issues, Clinton in the 1990's to some extent had managed to keep the realignment from occurring via his policies on issues like crime.

Gore made it clear in 2000 that he supported Clinton’s crime policies, and I don’t recall Clinton being socially conservative on any issue besides crime. Clinton was as anti-gun as any Democrat today, if not more so.

Bush was clearly more socially conservative in terms of his appeal than Dole though, Bush didn't try to downplay his religion but embraced, it was pretty clear who was more socially conservative and which candidate was more pro Christian, I think that had a big impact on voters.

[darklordoftech]

https://books.google.com/books?id=nLNVd8ZkW0UC&pg=PA269&lpg=PA269&dq=1996+2000+rural+clinton+bush&source=bl&ots=UXj0PihvTR&sig=ACfU3U0zPHRPA0c_ZAmO4x_9toNHv-ouBg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi9voDjwpLmAhWNmlkKHXiZBWQQ6AEwGHoECAIQAQ#v=onepage&q=1996%202000%20rural%20clinton%20bush&f=false

[nclib]

Since Dole-Gore voters were generally urban (and therefore in areas that were already Democratic) this only translated into picking up only 2 counties.

This is also true when considering CD swings.

IIRC, there are fewer Dole-Gore counties than any other candidate combination in modern history (there were even Wallace-McGovern counties and McGovern-Ford counties).

[darklordoftech]

Were there any Clinton-Gore and/or Dole-Bush counties in which Gore did better in 2000 than Clinton did in 1996?

[nclib]

Were there any Clinton-Gore and/or Dole-Bush counties in which Gore did better in 2000 than Clinton did in 1996?

Plenty of them.

[darklordoftech]

Were there any Clinton-Gore and/or Dole-Bush counties in which Gore did better in 2000 than Clinton did in 1996?

Plenty of them.

What were they?

[TDAS04]

Fairfax County, VA and Marion County, Indiana almost count.  They swung left, Gore fell 1% shy of flipping them.  Then they both voted for Kerry.

[nclib]

Were there any Clinton-Gore and/or Dole-Bush counties in which Gore did better in 2000 than Clinton did in 1996?

Plenty of them.

What were they?

Just go to this site's 2000 election results and each state has a swing map.

[Gracile]

Were there any Clinton-Gore and/or Dole-Bush counties in which Gore did better in 2000 than Clinton did in 1996?

Plenty of them.

What were they?

Most of the counties that swung heavily to Gore from Clinton's 1996 margin were heavily populated urban/suburban counties (ex. King, WA; Los Angeles, CA; Fairfax, VA; DeKalb, GA; Clayton, GA; Bay Area counties; Philadelphia metro counties).

[darklordoftech]

Were there any Clinton-Gore and/or Dole-Bush counties in which Gore did better in 2000 than Clinton did in 1996?

Plenty of them.

What were they?

Just go to this site's 2000 election results and each state has a swing map.

It’s a hard-to-navigate website.

[It’s so Joever]

A bit off topic, but I thought I saw somewhere once that a decent number of Asian Americans were Dole-Gore voters. Is this true or am I just imagining things again?

[darklordoftech]

A bit off topic, but I thought I saw somewhere once that a decent number of Asian Americans were Dole-Gore voters. Is this true or am I just imagining things again?

It’s true that Dole won with Asian voters in 1996 and Gore won with Asian voters in 2000, but I’m not sure whether that’s because of Dole-Gore voters, immigration, or generational turnover.

[morgankingsley]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

I did not think it was that few, wow