Assume a High Voter Turnout in November

[Torie]

I'm expecting turnout to be higher numerically, but I think it will be lower as a percent of registered voters.

I agree. And, J. J., it doesn't depend on who turns out. Unlike 2004, it is eminently obvious who would be the ones turning out in a high-turnout election.

No, actually it isn't.  Will there a larger or smaller than normal turnout of suburban women, for example?  How about white working class Democrats?

Even if Obama under-performs among working-class Democrats, he's still not going to lose them, so increased turnout will still help him.

I might depend on which working class "Democrats" turn out. I think it is all very fluid. Both candidates are pretty well liked in general, which also makes things fluid.

[Torie]

I might depend on which working class "Democrats" turn out. I think it is all very fluid. Both candidates are pretty well liked in general, which also makes things fluid.

If it were just "the working class," I'd agree.  But whenever you add "Democrats" to a phrase, you have trouble finding a group that's going to even come close to voting McCain.

It's the swing baby. There are not going to be any seminal cohort moves in this election I don't think, although I still hope my little demographic cohort (and yours it appears) does move substantially in critical precincts not in my state.

[Torie]

Well some cohorts don't need any enthusiasm to still vote. They have been voting for along time, without much enthusiasm. I can't remember when my clan was enthusiastic about any presidential candidate.