Am I misreading this, or is this an absolute disaster for the GOP? It looks like this kind of got glossed over. Even if 25% of those D votes are "ancestral Democrats" voting for Republicans, that's still a 210,000 vote deficit for the GOP at this point.
Depends. Are republicans simply not returning ballots or is it just that the bulk of reporting is from dem leaning areas? Does lower mail in turnout in rural areas suggest a lack of enthusiasm or just an intent to vote in person?
Democratic strategy firm TargetSmart has data on early voting by congressional district (and more). Districts 3 (the majority black district in Philly) has cast over 125,000 votes already.
By contrast, districts 1, 9, 12, 13, 15, and 16 have cast less than 50,000 votes. All except 1 (Bucks) is solid red. District one has only 20,000 votes reported. Are they really voting at 1/6 the pace of the city? Doubtful. I expect dems to keep a raw vote lead in early voting, but in percentage terms, the gap should fall as other areas catch up on reporting.
