Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[King of Kensington]

In Davenport, the NDP seems poised to pick Alejandra Bravo, who is a good candidate for them. She is with the Broadbent Institute and ran three times for city council in Toronto's former ward 17 (northern half of Davenport, the more difficult part of the riding for the NDP).  Speaks Portuguese and French as well as her native Spanish.  

https://www.bravodavenport.ca/

If she wins, she'll likely be Toronto's only non-Liberal MP.

[King of Kensington]

Re: Canadian conservatism and the difference between the median voter/mainstream opinion in US and Canada:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=449931.0

[King of Kensington]

The NDP and Tories are tied with "Left Liberals"?

[King of Kensington]

While not as much in Canada, in US and Europe you are getting a real woke backlash so you have lots who are economically left wing but culturally conservative who used to vote for parties on left but now vote right.  So could be this group too, although blue collar voters swinging right doesn't seem nearly as prevalent as in many other jurisdictions.

Erin O'Toole's attempt to appeal to this constituency (which he says is modelled on Boris Johnson) hasn't really seemed to gone anywhere.

Places like Niagara Region or Sault Ste. Marie would be a lot more "Trumpy" if they were in the US.  Not that O'Toole is comparable to Trump, but shows that conservative views a minority among WWC in Ontario rust belt. 

[King of Kensington]

Agree there's been a rightward shift among WWC in Ontario rust belt and BC interior.  Van Island has been largely immune as it's culturally very "Left Coast."

[King of Kensington]

Saskatchewan was once the stronghold of the CCF and NDP, and now it's the most conservative province.

Yup, it's the North Dakota of Canada.

[King of Kensington]

Economically, pretty much the whole world is to the left of where it used to be, and Canada's no different. But while the "economically left, culturally right" trend has benefited people like Boris Johnson elsewhere, the broad-based leftward shift in Canada puts the CPC in a difficult position. The NDP was in prime position to capitalize on this in 2015, but Mulcair was stuck in old ways and Trudeau ate his lunch.

O'Toole says he's following the Boris Johnson model, but no proof that it's helping them at all. 

[King of Kensington]

How would Rona Ambrose have fared?  She seems to be the great hope for the Conservatives.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/imagine-a-conservative-party-led-by-rona-ambrose-where-would-it-be-now/

[King of Kensington]

NDP stalwart and foreign affairs critic Jack Harris is retiring:

https://jackharris.ndp.ca/news/statement-jack-harriss-political-future

[King of Kensington]

O'Toole has been trying to move the CPC in a more economically activist direction, but he takes a more populist approach than a patrician one.

O'Toole seems to be a modern-day Diefenbaker Tory. 

[King of Kensington]

Boris is sounding like Chrystia Freeland.

[King of Kensington]

"Please see my statement" = I was compelled

[King of Kensington]

Uppal says after the Liberals beat the Conservatives at the polls, he spent considerably more time talking to Canadians outside the partisan political bubble.

He says it was through these conversations that he came to understand how the niqab policy and other pronouncements during the election campaign alienated Muslim Canadians and contributed to the growing problem of Islamophobia in Canada.

"When it came to these policies, I should have used my seat at the table to push against divisiveness that promoted the notion of the other," he said in the Facebook post. "I regret not being a stronger voice and sincerely apologize for my role."

Many have parents, grandparents, aunts, and uncles who blazed the trail for them in Canada because they believed it would provide their families with a safer and prosperous future, Uppal said.

"The Canada that they believed in was one that held, in its core, the belief that your race, your religion, your gender, or your sexuality would be accepted here," he wrote.

"It is up to us all to make Canada a better place."

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/conservative-mp-tim-uppal-sorry-for-role-in-divisiveness-of-harper-era-policies-1.5469581

[King of Kensington]

What a hot mess:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/process-remove-annamie-paul-active-1.6066430

[King of Kensington]

With Greens infighting, I cannot see how this ends well for them.  Mind you BQ faced similar problem back around 2017, but at least it was a majority so enough time to change leaders and recover.  Greens lack that.  Wouldn't be surprised if Paul Manly's seat goes NDP.  Elizabeth May's seat is a tougher one as not exactly favourable to any of the other three parties.  A bit too affluent for NDP although possible but BC NDP is more moderate than federal NDP.  Liberals are very weak on Vancouver Island so seems unlikely.  Tories have won the riding in past, but Greater Victoria area has really shifted left in last decade.  More importantly Saanich-Gulf Islands has a lot of your educated well to do types and that group not just in Canada, but globally has really swung left over last decade.

Should give Avi Lewis a boost too, but I suspect West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country stays Liberal given that they are competitive in both West Van (Tory/Liberal) and non-West Van (progressive with green bent) parts of the riding.

[King of Kensington]

The chance of Toronto Centre going Green (always an uphill climb) is pretty much nil at this point.

[King of Kensington]

Interesting how they include Visible Minority and Indigenous - though the latter seem way off.

[King of Kensington]

More on the fissures in the Conservative Party:

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-conservative-party-is-at-odds-with-itself-can-otoole-pull-it-together/

[King of Kensington]

I'm skeptical of these high Prairie numbers for the NDP that we're seeing in some polls.  A lot of the things people dislike about Trudeau is even more true of Singh. 

[King of Kensington]

To what extent is the poor CPC numbers is Alberta:

Right-wing backlash against "eastern Red Tory" leadership

Liberalization of urban Alberta/O'Toole being tainted by closeness to Kenney

[King of Kensington]

In terms of the Conservative Party being in a bubble, I think it says something that their two leading M.Ps on political shows are Michelle Rempel Garner and Pierre Polievre.  Michelle Rempel Garner is a flaky joke and Pierre Polievre is a noxious hyper partisan.

There must be more reasonable people in their caucus who would be far better spokespeople than these two, but these two are, I believe, the two most popular M.Ps of the party's base.

And that's why the Conservatives won't be winning an election anytime soon.

[King of Kensington]

Skyview also has the large Asian population a lot of which stayed with the provincial NDP. I don't know the mathematics of it but that suggests to me the Liberals have a chance there if the national circumstances are right.

It was also the Calgary riding with the lowest CPC vote share in 2019.

[King of Kensington]

Re: Laurentian Elite, there's definitely been a shift toward "Brahmin Liberalism" in Rosedale, St. Paul's, North Toronto (Montreal's anglo elite has always been Liberal).  The Annex and Cabbagetown also have a "Brahmin Liberal" character.

[King of Kensington]

O'Toole said only an overwhelming vote for the Conservatives can put an end to a Liberal government propped up by Bloc Québécois, Green and NDP MPs largely sympathetic to its agenda.

Twelve years ago, O'Toole said, these parties signed a pact to govern Canada as a coalition — a reference to a failed agreement negotiated by former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion and his NDP counterpart, Jack Layton. Now, he said, left-leaning parties have aligned in this parliamentary session to pass bills "spending other people's money" and push the federal debt to an eye-popping level.

He said the progressive parties in Parliament are not distinct but rather "four different shades of red."

"They're all the same and they're all part of the problem," O'Toole said, adding voters have been left with an "illusion of choice" between parties bent on "overspending."

"There aren't five choices for Canadians — there are two," he added. "Canada's Conservatives on one side and the Liberal-NDP-Green-Bloc coalition on the other."

Doesn't he benefit from vote splitting on the center-left/left though?  Still, I guess this was about rallying the Conservative base.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-looming-last-session-parliament-1.6077204

[King of Kensington]

Saskatchewan is the Canadian North Dakota.