Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling OK Special Sen R for Mullin!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If it holds, the Sullivan county number is a concern, that was a Delgado county two years ago. But Ryan so far outperforming in all the counties he's carrying. Ryan did underperform Delgado in Schoharie but not by much.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In Greene County, Ryan is getting the exact same 46% that Delgado got(!). Molinaro a little higher than Van DeWater but only because there were third parties in 2020.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Della Pia still ahead in NY-23, but Seneca and Tioga counties have flipped over to the GOP now. Going to be tough to stay ahead.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ostego is still largely out. Lots of potential for Ryan there.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling NY-23 for Sempolinski!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling NY-19 for Ryan!!!!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.facebook.com/events/1989071217948691/?ref=newsfeed - livestream starting soon

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm confused as to how there still has been no new votes counted in NY-19 or NY-23.

Are there any to count?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McClellan is doing far better than McEachin across the district. Almost 70% for McClellan.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McClellan wins Dinwiddle County, which was over 60% for Benjamin in November

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Cicilline's resignation taking effect Thursday. Expect a primary on September 5 and General on November 7.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Cicilline's resignation taking effect Thursday. Expect a primary on September 5 and General on November 7.

So RI-01 and UT-02 will remain vacant until at least November?

Unless UT decides to be quicker, yes

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The UT-02 primary will be September 5, with the general election on November 21.

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This is so odd to me - why not just have the general on the same night that the rest of the country is having its general?

I believe it's to align with local/municipal elections.

Okay follow-up, why do certain Utah municipalities have local elections 3 weeks after the presidential? That's so stupid.

Uh, they don't. Salt Lake City only holds local elections in years like 2019, 2023, and 2027 - it never falls in a presidential year.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

R+10-12

Would be nice for it to be actually close and/or flip but in reality the portion of SLC in this district just isn't large enough.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This isn't even close lol:

Celeste Maloy
Republican   22,264   +62.9%62.9%   
Kathleen Riebe
Democrat   9,529   +26.9%26.9   
Perry Myers
Independent   866   +2.4%2.4   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Even in Salt Lake this is lackluster for dems. 66% vs McMullin getting 68%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Outside of Toole/SLC, Maloy is actually hitting or coming close to the numbers Stewart got when he won re-election by 26% in '22. Yeah that includes some rural noise that isn't worth much with any margin, but it also includes the relatively populous Washington and Davis counties. Dems really dropped the ball here.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Pretty amazing the dem is winning 65-27 in SLC, a county Romney won

1. This isn't the whole county, the county is split between all 4 districts.
2. Romney had unusually good appeal to Utah because he's a Mormon. We'll probably never see his margins again for any R, anywhere in Utah.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks like yet another Republican underperformance in a special election in the Biden era.

LOL at those proclaiming the opposite when no votes from SLC were even in yet.

Maloy is winning by more than 20% now. This isn't quite Stewart levels but it's better than Trump and FAR better than Mike Lee.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

It's not exactly a positive sign for Biden's chances, but it isn't really one for Trump's either given Utah is much redder downballot.

Special elections don't really mean anything for Presidential races. Mike Garcia flipped CA-25 in 2020 but its not like that was a good indicator of what would happen between Trump and Biden.

It certainly previewed that 2020 Pres wasn't going to be a landslide, which was true. It also previewed the GOP's strong performance in the House of Representatives results and arguably their decent results in the Senate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

I tend to think the incumbent party holding thier own in competitive races is a good sign.

I mean it's not a bad sign, but this year clearly isn't 2017 when Dems were overperforming across the board. Certainly signals that any Biden 2024 win will be a narrow one that will place the GOP squarely in control of the Senate and limit D gains in the House.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Celeste Maloy has now beaten expectations three times in a row.

-Everyone said Hughes was going to win the convention. Maloy won.
-Everyone said Edwards was going to win the primary. Maloy won.
-Everyone said Riebe was going to overperform in the general. Maloy was the one who overperformed.

Looks like Trump should pick Maloy as his running mate

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results page for tonight's CA-20 jungle primary:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/19/us/elections/results-california-us-house-20.html