UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[TheTide]

A lot going on this morning.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575064989324279809?s=20&t=TmrwFV8jF...

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575068642617995264?s=20&t=TmrwFV8jF...

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575073764572008448?s=20&t=TmrwFV8jF...

[TheTide]

Oh, and the pound is crashing again.

[TheTide]

Main sub headline on the BBC right now: "Our experts are answering your questions as the government's tax-cut plans send the UK economy into turmoil."

Just what you want isn't it?

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575142490000302080?s=20&t=3QmQ2yPXS...

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/MajorTomSavage/status/1575058625558618112?s=20&t=n6HiIxl...

[TheTide]

The issue is the Government has been so hollowed out of critical friends- the Chancellor was appointed because he believes this rubbish and is a close ally, the Business Secretary sees this as the latest act in his regency drama, the Chief Sec is an ex junior minister, No.10 is staffed by Truss aides and a CoS who has to my knowledge never ran a government (he is a public affairs/elections type)

The said CoS apparently can't go to the United States because the FBI want him for alleged electoral fraud in Puerto Rico.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1575404800434372610?s=20&t=CC05qXeNVf...

[TheTide]

Interviews are tougher on local radios because the journos tend to be less concerned with their own egos than do their national counterparts.

[TheTide]

Tories would be down to three seats (yes, 3) on the YouGov figures with a uniform swing. And that's without taking tactical voting into account. Labour majority of 480 without any significant gains in Scotland.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1575525020419465216?s=20&t=rqVUMyLz1L9mypr...

[TheTide]

Resignations could be imminent, particularly at a junior level. These polls together with Truss's tour of the radio stations this morning and her and Kwarteng's indications that they are as stubborn as pregnant hens in an ocean of superglue could be something of a straw.

[TheTide]

The 15% for Truss as preferred PM is just as amazing/amusing as the voting intentions. Incumbent PMs tend to have an inbuilt advantage on this question, and this poll was conducted when most of the country hadn't seen or heard her and her dazzling media performances in almost a week.

[TheTide]

The 15% for Truss as preferred PM is just as amazing/amusing as the voting intentions. Incumbent PMs tend to have an inbuilt advantage on this question, and this poll was conducted when most of the country hadn't seen or heard her and her dazzling media performances in almost a week.

Well, nobody has actually voted for Truss (save for a handful of Con party members) so there's really no attachment to her whatsoever.

Major enjoyed very high ratings on becoming PM, even though he was just as unknown as Truss and elected by merely the parliamentary party.

And to be pedantic, no one outside of South West Norfolk can vote for Truss.

[TheTide]

More YouGov findings:

Truss approval: 15/65
Kwarteng approval: 7/60
Government approval on the economy: 11/76

[TheTide]

Imagine the year 1995, except that John Redwood is the Prime Minister and the economy is in the sh**t. And the cabinet is sh**t.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1575894055636160515?s=20&t=E-Yan0OF...

[TheTide]

It's worth mentioning that the national popular vote in 1997 and 2001 will severely understate Labour's support because turnout was quite low in Labour strongholds, not due to lack of enthusiasm, but due to a sense that Labour's victory was inevitable and that it would be pointless to vote. You also have to take into account tactical support for the LibDems. In the end, I suspect Labour's true level of support was in the high 40s to low 50s in 1997, just as surveys suggested. Overall, I think the seat counts reflect this more than Labour's 13 point lead would.

The BBC exit poll in 1997 had Labour on 47%, which was technically inaccurate but probably a good indicator of their support at the same time, for the reasons you say.

[TheTide]

Electoral reform is a diversion in the UK sadly, because I can't see the British people voting for it in a referendum. The recent two hung parliaments would make it extra easy to scare people away from it.

There doesn't need to be a referendum. Various changes to electoral systems (nationally, regionally and locally) have been implemented without referenda. There was no referendum at the points when the franchise was extended or when the university seats were abolished.

All three referendums held at a UK level thus far (1975 EEC, 2011 AV and 2016 EU) were primarily to keep the government intact, rather than out of any direct democracy principle.  

[TheTide]

Electoral reform is a diversion in the UK sadly, because I can't see the British people voting for it in a referendum. The recent two hung parliaments would make it extra easy to scare people away from it.

There doesn't need to be a referendum. Various changes to electoral systems (nationally, regionally and locally) have been implemented without referenda. All three referendums held at a UK level thus far (1975 EEC, 2011 AV and 2016 EU) were primarily to keep the government intact, rather than out of any direct democracy principle.  

Changing the electoral system is a major constitutional change that should be done through a referendum, otherwise it won't be accepted as legitimate. These issues are the ones that most need to be decided that way.

That's a fair point. People still regularly talk of the illegitimacy of the abolition of plural voting without a referendum in the late 1940s.

(No they don't, and never particularly did to my knowledge.)

[TheTide]

Truss is used to being humiliated.

[TheTide]

The equivalent moment in the previous government was actually the fairly forgotten fiasco (there's some alliteration) about the 10p tax in April 2008.

[TheTide]

What's the point of the Truss premiership at this point? Her policy agenda is being shredded. If she were a reassuring and likeable John Major figure then that would be something she'd have going for her, but she isn't.

[TheTide]

Kwarteng has pointed to the death of the Queen as the reason for why his budget was so bad. They're actively trying to implode aren't they?

[TheTide]

To be fair, Kwarteng was clearly devastated by the Queen's death, as these caps from the funeral show.

[TheTide]

The latest masterplan.

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1577573093110956033?s=20&t=9RwSahIu...