Election Night Timelines Project

[Chips]

Welcome to our election night group, Clinton/Kaine/ Northam/ Biden/Warner voter for Youngkin!

I'm guessing a narrow Clinton win but anything is possible. Also, you're using the wrong allocations. The toss-up map should be Clinton 237, Palin 224. I can already smell 2012 vibes.

[S019]

7:00 PM poll closings

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 7:00 PM on the East Coast and polls are closing in several states including the key state of Virginia with its 13 electoral votes

We can project that Sarah Palin will win South Carolina and its 9 electoral votes, we can project that Sarah Palin will win Indiana, with its 11 electoral votes, we can project that Sarah Palin will win Kentucky, with its 8 electoral votes. We can project that Hillary Clinton will win Vermont with its 3 electoral votes. It is too close to call in Virginia, this means we need to wait for more votes to come in. It is too early to call in Georgia, which means we do not have enough data to make a projection. Let's look at where the race for the White House stands right now:



We have 28 electoral votes for Sarah Palin and 3 for Hillary Clinton. You need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency

In the race for the Senate we can make some calls, Senator Leahy will win re-election in the state of Vermont, Senator Leahy will win Vermont. We can also call that Senator Scott will win in South Carolina and that Senator Isakson will win in Georgia, but this is a big one we can project, this is a major projection, Senator Daniel Mongiardo of Kentucky will lose his seat to Representative James Comer, this is a Republican gain, and the first one of the night, and it is too close to call in Indiana, where Senator Bayh is in a very competitive race. So the battle for the Senate currently stands at 36 Republicans and 34 Democrats, you need 50 seats to win the Senate, the Republicans need to pick up 3 if they win the White House and 4 if they lose the White House, and they've already picked up one.



Now let's get a key race alert

In Virginia, it is very early and the rural counties report first, with around 5% in, Sarah Palin with a large lead

5% in
Palin (R) : 57%
Clinton (D) : 42%

Georgia is too early to call, we do not have enough data from there

Now in the battle for the Senate, with around 60% in, Senator Bayh has narrowed the gap a bit here in Indiana, but Governor Daniels still leads

60%
Daniels (R): 52%
Bayh (D) : 47%

Let's now go the Magic Wall, and John King, Senator Bayh has narrowed this gap quite a bit, can you explain why?

King: Well if we go back to this map, you see this giant blue county in the northwest corner of the state, this is Lake County, home of Gary, it just closed and it's already around 50% in and look at that margin 65-35 for Senator Bayh. In all likelihood, it's not going to be enough, and I'd be very surprised if Governor Daniels doesn't win this race, but it looks like it'll be close-ish in the end and especially if the Democratic loss is narrow, Democrats are going to face criticism for spending so much in the Dakotas to try to save leadership members and ignoring races like this one.

7:30 PM poll closings

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 7:30 on the East Coast and polls are closing in three states, including the swing state of Ohio

It is too close to call in Ohio, too close to call in Ohio, it is also too close to call in North Carolina, too close to call in North Carolina, we can project that Sarah Palin will win West Virginia and it's 5 electoral votes, giving her 33 electoral votes to 3 for Hillary Clinton, you need 270 votes to win the White House



Now in the battle for the Senate, we can project that Senator Rob Portman of Ohio will win re-election, this is a Republican hold, it is too close to call in North Carolina where Senator Elaine Marshall is facing Governor Pat McCrory. The Republicans now with 37 seats and the Democrats with 34, you need 50 seats to win control of the Senate.



8:00 PM poll closings

It is now 8:00 PM on the east coast, and polls are closing in many states, including the swing states of Florida and New Hampshire, and we have several projections to make

First, we can project that Sarah Palin will win the state of Oklahoma, and it's 7 electoral votes, we can project that Sarah Palin will in Missouri and its 10 electoral votes, we can project that Sarah Palin will win Mississippi and its 6 electoral votes, we can project that Sarah Palin will win Alabama and its 9 electoral votes, we can project that Sarah Palin will win Tennessee and its 10 electoral votes. We can project that Hillary Clinton will win win Illinois and its 10 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win the District of Columbia and its 3 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win Maryland and its 10 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win Delaware and its 3 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win New Jersey and its 14 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win Connecticut and its 7 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win Rhode Island and its 4 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win Massachusetts and its 11 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win 1 of the 4 electoral votes from Maine, Maine allocates its electoral votes by congressional district. It is too close to call in Pennsylvania, too close to call in Florida, too close to call in New Hampshire, too close to call one vote in Maine, too early to call the state of Maine, and we are moving Georgia from too early to call to too close to call. That gives us 76 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 76 for Sarah Palin, you need 270 to win the White House.



In the battle for the Senate, we can project that Senator Lanksford will win re-election in the state of Oklahoma, this is a Republican hold, we can project that Senator Sessions will win re-election in Alabama, this is a Republican hold. We can project that Senator Obama, the 2012 Democratic nominee for President, will win re-election to his seat in Illinois. We can project that Chris Van Hollen, the Democrat will hold the Senate seat in Maryland and we can project that Senator Chris Dodd will hold his seat in Connecticut for the Democrats. It is too close to call in Missouri, where Senator Blunt is facing a tough challenge from Secretary of State Jason Kander. It is too close to call in Florida, where Senator Castor is facing a tough challenge from Representative Diaz-Balart. It is too close to call in Pennsylvania, where Senator Sestak is facing a tough challenge from Representative Fitzpatrick. It is too close to call in New Hampshire, where Senator Ayotte is facing a very tough challenge from Governor Maggie Hassan, in one of only a handful of Republican held seats considered to be competitive. That gives us 39 seats for the Republicans and 37 seats for the Democrats



8:15 PM

We can make some projections, Sarah Palin will win the state of Georgia and its 16 electoral votes. This gives us 92 electoral votes for Sarah Palin and 76 for Hillary Clinton. ]



We can also make some projections for the Senate, Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana will defeat Democratic senator Evan Bayh, who is part of a political dynasty in the state, giving the Republicans their 2nd pickup of the night, they need 3 to win the Senate, if they win the presidency and 4, if they don't win the presidency. This gives us 40 Senate seats for the Republicans and 37 for the Democrats



8:30 PM

It is now 8:30 PM and polls have closed in the state of Arkansas

We can call the state of Arkansas, and its 6 electoral votes for Sarah Palin, Hillary Clinton once called this state home, but Arkansas goes to Sarah Palin. This gives us 98 electoral votes for Sarah Palin and 76 for Hillary Clinton



We can also make some projections for the Senate

Senator John Boozman will win Arkansas, this is a Republican hold, and brings the Republicans to 41 seats, compared to 37 for the Democrats

[S019]

8:50 PM

We can make some major projections. Pennsylvania, and its 20 electoral votes will go to Hillary Clinton, this is a state that the Palin campaign hoped to make competitive, but they were unsuccessful, also North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes will go to Sarah Palin. We can also project that 3 of Maine's 4 electoral votes go to Hillary Clinton. That gives us 98 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 113 for Sarah Palin.



Now, let's head over to the panel with Dana Bash and Jake Tapper, and it surely must be discouraging for the Palin campaign to have Pennsylvania called less than an hour after polls close there.

Bash: Yes, it absolutely is, this was a lean Democratic state and that of course means no one expected Sarah Palin to win it, but she did have a chance there, even if it was a small one. Ultimately this early call means she isn't doing too well in the Midwest, we have Ohio at Lean R and it still hasn't been called, and you of course have two tossups in the Midwest in Iowa and Wisconsin.

Tapper: Ultimately, this was a state that you didn't need to have, but you wanted to have, because going into the election, you knew that really you needed both Virginia and Florida realistically, and you were trailing in both, Pennsylvania would've given you a bit more wiggle room, and if you lost both you'd still have a chance


Wolf Blitzer: Let's now head over to the Magic Wall and John King this call came earlier than many expected, and it is in a way our first swing state call of the night, what does this mean for both candidates going ahead.

King: Well, I'm glad you asked that and let's just look at this map, you see a lot of blue here in the Southeast corner of the state, this is Philadelphia and its suburbs. Let's come down here, this is Chester County, this was red four years ago, McCain beat Obama here by around 4 pts, 52-48, today it's blue, Clinton leading here by around 6 pts, 52-46. Let's come over here to Bucks County, this one is always competitive, 4 years ago, Obama won but narrowly, 50-47, today Clinton's winning narrowly as well, but that margin slightly larger, 51-46. The reason the Palin campaign should be concerned is that this southeast corner of the state, it's a lot like the northern part of Virginia, where of course Hillary Clinton campaigned heavily, and if the suburbs in Virginia have swings like this, well then Sarah Palin is going to need Florida and Colorado, and one of Nevada or New Hampshire, the issue with that is that Colorado also has lots of places that look like southeast Pennsylvania and northern Virginia.

If you're Hillary Clinton, you start to feel cautiously optimistic, especially with the results coming in in Florida, right now, actually let's jump down to Florida, this counts quick. 75% in already, Hillary Clinton with a narrow lead of around 0.5 pts, but let's come down here to the Gold Coast, this is Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, this is the Democratic base in the state, you can see around 65% counted in Miami-Date, so a good chunk of votes left here, around 60% counted in Broward, so a good chunk left here, around 80% counted in Palm Beach, so not much left here, but again you're up and any amount of vote helps at this point.

Wolf Blitzer: A win for Hillary Clinton in Florida would of course significantly reduce Sarah Palin's path, there's also a competitive Senate race in Florida, isn't there John?

King: Yes, there is, and let's switch maps one second. Senator Castor is facing Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart from Miami, her lead is larger than Clinton's around 1 pt, but you can see this margin in Miami-Dade, it is a bit worse for her, Clinton led here 60-40, Senator Castor leads here 55-45, she's making up for it in the rest of the state, for instance doing better in the I-4 corridor and even in the Republican panhandle, but honestly Rep. Diaz-Balart's path looks better than Palin's path here in the Sunshine State, but neither look good at the moment.

Wolf Blitzer: It would indeed be a huge relief for the Democrats to hold Florida, given their Senate map, can we have a look at Pennsylvania and North Carolina for the Senate, we already called North Carolina presidentially, but have yet to do so for the Senate

King: Yes, and let's start with North Carolina, if we alternate back and forth between the two maps you don't see much difference in the counties that Senator Clinton and Senator Marshall won, Clinton with around 47% of the vote, Senator Marshall with around 50%, and Senator Marshall, before she was a Senator, she was a Secretary of State, she has a history of outperforming here and she might just pull it off again. Why is she doing it, well if we switch to this map comparing the vote percentages they're getting you see a significant over performance here in the northern part of the state and also here in the southern part of the state, just east of Charlotte, lots of ancestral Democrats in both of these parts who've voted for Senator Marshall for many years and she's someone that they know and evidently trust and like.

Wolf Blitzer: Well one thing we're seeing tonight is many of these Democratic senators they're outrunning Hillary Clinton, though the ones that went down so far, were in too red states for it to matter.

King: Yes, let's actually jump back to Kentucky, we called both of these races at the same time, Sarah Palin won the state by a margin of 61-35, but James Comer won his Senate race by a much less margin, 56-44, so around a 6-7 pt overperformance by Senator Mongiardo, obviously not going to be enough in a state like Kentucky or Indiana or South Dakota, but in a state like North Carolina, where Hillary Clinton is currently losing by 6 points, it is enough to make a difference. So, we could be watching North Carolina for a long time

Wolf Blitzer: hold on John, it's time for the 9 PM poll closings

9:00 PM poll closings

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 9:00 PM on the East Coast and polls will close in several states including the swing states of Wisconsin and Colorado as well as big prizes like New York and Texas

We can project that Sarah Palin will win the state of Texas and its 38 electoral votes, Sarah Palin will win Kansas and its 6 electoral votes, Sarah Palin will win 4 of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes, like Maine, Nebraska allocates its votes by district, Sarah Palin will win South Dakota and its 3 electoral votes, Sarah Palin will win North Dakota and its 3 electoral votes, Sarah Palin will win Wyoming and its 3 electoral votes, Sarah Palin will win Louisiana and its 8 electoral votes. We can project that Hillary Clinton will win New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes, Hillary Clinton will win Minnesota and its 10 electoral votes, Hillary Clinton will win Michigan and its 16 electoral votes, and Hillary Clinton will win New York and its 29 electoral votes, too close to call in Wisconsin, too close to call in Colorado, too close to call in Arizona. We can also make two more projections, Sarah Palin will win Ohio and its 18 electoral votes, once a bellwether, Ohio has not voted Democratic since 1996 and Hillary Clinton will win all 4 of Maine's electoral votes. That gives us 196 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 159 for Sarah Palin, you need 270 electoral votes to win the White House



We can also make some calls in the battle for the Senate, Senator Jerry Moran will win in Kansas, this is a Republican hold. Senator Chuck Schumer wins his seat again in New York for the Democrats. We also have two major projections, Senator Tom Daschle, the Senate Majority Leader, who represented South Dakota for 30 years, including 22 as Democratic floor leader, making him the longest serving floor leader in history, will lose his seat in South Dakota to Representative Kristi Noem, this is a Republican gain, Tom Daschle becomes the first Majority Leader to lose re-election since 1952. His neighbor in North Dakota, Byron Dorgan, a former member of Democratic leadership, who served in the Senate for over 20 years, will be defeated by former Governor, John Hoeven, this is another gain for the Republicans. That brings us to a total of four Senate gains for the Republicans, enough to take the Senate, if they don't lose any seats. We can also project that Senator Sestak in Pennsylvania will win re-election defeating Representative Mike Fitzpatrick. It is too early to call in Louisiana, too close to call in Colorado, too close to call in Arizona, and too close to call in Wisconsin This give us 44 Senate seats for the Republicans, compared to 39 for the Democrats.

 

Wolf Blitzer: let's head over to the magic wall and John King where do things stand realistically, right now, if we allocated the safe states where would be

John King: well it's great you asked that question, this is our pre-election map



We haven't called any tossups yet, and no real surprises so far. Of course, we now have data for several of these swing states. Let's actual go to Virginia right now. As you can see Northern Virginia starting to come in, Sarah Palin with around a 5 point lead right now, we'll see where that is in an hour or two as the northern part of the state counts very slowly. We were just in Florida, around 10 minutes ago, let's check back there and not much has changed, realistically, based on the data that we have, Sarah Palin is going to need what's left of the panhandle to be abnormally friendly to win Florida, so let's just assume we give Florida to Hillary Clinton:



That gets her to 266, Palin needs to run the board then, is it doable yes, is it easy, not particularly.

Wolf Blitzer: Okay let's go to Wisconsin, that just closed and it is a tossup state, though one that many outlets, but not CNN moved to lean Clinton late in the campaign

John King: Yes, let's look at Wisconsin, not much in so far, but do we have some exit poll data, so let's pull that up, this one is by gender, and if you compare it to 2012, you can see not much change, this one is by race, you compare it to 2012, not much change. Realistically, it was going to be very hard for Sarah Palin to pull off Wisconsin, since that Pennsylvania call came as early as it did, it suggests she didn't do as well with the required demographics to pull of a victory, and again if I pull up the electoral map again, if we give Wisconsin to Clinton, she wins, it's over, Palin can sweep everything else and it doesn't matter



At this point in the night, I'd much rather be Hillary Clinton than Sarah Palin.

Wolf Blitzer: now let's get a report from Sarah Palin HQ over in Anchorage

Reporter: Yes, I'm here at Sarah Palin HQ in Anchorage and there was a noted quiet when the Pennsylvania call came in, and I've just spoken to a strategist for the campaign, and they said that they "are very worried about Florida." When I asked them about Wisconsin, they said that they "never considered that a tossup state." It's very clearly Florida or Bust for the Palin campaign, and all of the signs we have indicate "Bust" right now.

Wolf Blitzer: Thank you and let's get a report from Hillary Clinton HQ in New York City

Reporter: It's a very different mood here in Midtown Manhattan at Hillary Clinton HQ, you can in fact hear the crowd behind me chanting "break that glass ceiling." Of course, the glass ceiling will be broken no matter what, because for the first time in American history, we have a woman presidential nominee, and both major parties nominated women, but Senator Clinton emphasized that far more in her campaign than the Vice President did. Also the crowd was ecstatic when Pennsylvania was called and I just spoke to a Clinton strategist who said they're watching both Virginia and Florida "very closely," but at the same time they said "we like what we see so far." But that's the key, "so far," it's an atmosphere of cautious optimism, but the Clinton camp definitely seems to agree that they seem favored to take the presidency at the moment.

9:30 PM

Wolf Blitzer: We can make some projections, we can project that Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes will go to Hillary Clinton, the first tossup called tonight and it goes to Hillary Clinton. That gives her 169 electoral votes compared to 196 for Sarah Palin, you need 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency.



Wolf Blitzer: We can also make some calls in the Senate, in Wisconsin, Democratic Senator Russ Feingold will win re-election he defeats the Republican, Representative Sean Duffy, that gives the Democrats 40 Senate seats compared to 44 for the Republicans



10:00 PM poll closings

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 10:00 PM on the east coast, and polls are closing in several states including the swing states of Iowa and Nevada

We can project that Utah and its 6 electoral votes will go to Sarah Palin, we can project that Montana and its 3 electoral votes will go to Sarah Palin. It is too close to call in Nevada and too close to call in Iowa. That gives us 169 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 205 for Sarah Palin, you need 270 to win the White House.



Wolf Blitzer: In the battle for the Senate, we can call Utah for Republican Senator Mike Lee, a Republican hold and we can call Iowa for Republican Senator Chuck Grassley. It is too close to call in Nevada, where Senator Harry Reid is facing a competitive race against Representative Joe Heck. This gives us 46 Senate seats for the Republicans and 40 for the Democrats

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Palin is losing in FL I doubt she would win WI so she must win FL or Hillary will win . As for the senate seems like it will either be 50-50 or 51-49 for the gop

[S019]

10:30 PM

Wolf Blitzer: We can make a projection, Arizona and it's 11 electoral votes they go to Sarah Palin, a closer race than expected but Arizona goes to Sarah Palin, she has 216 electoral votes, Hillary Clinton has 169, you need 270 to win the White House. Let's go over to the Magic Wall.



So, John King, Arizona called of course for Sarah Palin as expected, but another state where Republicans are hoping to pick up a Democratic held Senate seat. Let's get the latest on that one

John King: Sure, so we just called Arizona, you can see Hillary Clinton with 47% of the vote, Sarah Palin with 52%, now let's flip over to the Senate race, much better for the Democrats, as you see Senator Napolitano, the Democrat, with 50% of the vote, Representative Gosar, the Republican with 48% of the vote. Representative Gosar had a history of making controversial comments and it might just come back to bite the Republicans in Arizona, again there is some caution that Arizona counts slowly, so we probably won't know who won this race for a while.

10:50 PM

Wolf Blitzer: Stand by for a major projection, CNN projects that Virginia, with its 13 electoral votes will go to Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton becomes the first Democrat to win the state since 1964 and the win greatly narrowly's Vice President Palin's path to victory. That gives us 182 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 216 for Sarah Palin



John King, we'll look at gaming out the electoral college later, but first let's see how Hillary Clinton captured this state for the Democrats for the first time since 1964

John King: Well Wolf, when we started the night we said these DC suburbs were going to be key. This is Loudoun County, around 80% in, 4 years ago, John McCain won, but narrowly 50-49, today it's blue, Hillary Clinton wins it by around 7 pts, 53-46. Of course, a large swing to the Democrats in Loudoun County. Let's jump down here to the south, this is Henrico County, Richmond suburbs, four years ago, this was indeed blue, by around a margin of 53-47, today, it's blue again, but a larger margin 56-44. Right now, you see Hillary Clinton up by around 2.5 pts, she has 50.5%, Sarah Palin with 48%, and we're over 85% in right now.

Now let's take out the electoral college, so realistically following the Virginia call, this is where we stand:



Hillary Clinton at 260, Sarah Palin at 223, if Hillary Clinton wins Florida it's over, if Hillary Clinton wins Colorado, it would be a tie, but Democrats look like they're in good shape to hold on to the House majorities that they built in 2010 and 2014 not to mention they largely controlled the remapping in many states following 2010, so it's likely they'll have an advantage, if this goes to the House, so if you're Palin, realistically you need both Florida and Colorado, you're not doing well right now in Florida as we've seen all night, but let's just give them to her



Well now, you're at 261, let's say you take Nevada, your running mate's home state, that gets you to 267 and then either Iowa or New Hampshire does it. Of course, if you're Hillary Clinton, you are ecstatic about that Virginia call and you just want your lead in Florida to hold



Wolf Blitzer: Hold on John, it is 11:00 and we can make some projections

11:00 PM poll closings

It is 11:00 PM on the East Coast and we can make some projections, Hillary Clinton will win Washington and its 11 electoral votes, Oregon and its 7 electoral votes go to Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton will win California and its 55 electoral votes, Hillary Clinton will win Hawaii and its 4 electoral votes, Idaho and its 4 electoral votes will go to Sarah Palin. We can also project that Iowa and its 6 electoral votes will go to Sarah Palin, the first tossup state won by Sarah Palin tonight. That gives us 260 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton, just 10 shy of the 270 needed to win the Presidency, and 226 electoral votes for Sarah Palin. It is too close to call in Nevada.



We can also make some projections for the Senate, Democratic Senator Patty Murray of Washington will win re-election, Democratic Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon will win re-election, Kamala Harris will hold the Senate seat in California for the Democrats, Democratic Senator Brian will win re-election, and Republican senator Mike Crapo of Idaho will win re-election, that gives us 44 Senate seats for the Democrats and 48 for the Republicans, 50 are needed for control, and hold on we can make another Senate projection, Senator Betty Castor of Florida will win re-election defeating Representative Diaz-Balart, this was a seat that the Democrats and Republicans had both fought aggressively for, but Senator Castor she holds on in Florida, so that gives us 45 Senate seats for the Democrats and 48 for the Republicans. It is too close to call in Nevada, where Senator Reid is facing a competitive race against Representative Joe Heck.



So, John King, we just called the Senate race in Florida for the Democrats, Florida has been a state that has looked pretty good for Hillary Clinton all night, and if she won it, she would of course, win the presidency, where do things stand right now in Florida?

John King: Well right now if we look at the Senate race, Senator Castor with 52%, Rep Diaz-Balart with 48%, now let's jump to the Presidential, Hillary Clinton with 51%, Sarah Palin with 49% in, over 90% in, so now if you're Sarah Palin, you're going to start looking in these panhandle counties, how much vote is left there. Let's jump here to Escambia county, this is one of the bigger panhandle counties, pretty large military presence here, this is around 85% in, so some votes left here, but not many. Let's jump to Holmes County, pretty small around 19,000 people, and this one is 85% in, so not much left here. If we check through a few more of these, you're going to see not much left. Now, let's see are there any votes left for Senator Clinton. Let's come here to Orange County, this is Orlando, around 90% in, so you might get some here not much. Let's just down back to the Gold Coast, Broward County, 95% in, Palm Beach County, all in, Miami Dade, 90% in. So, the worrying thing for Sarah Palin is that this outstanding vote, it's pretty evenly divided. I have a hard time seeing her win this election with the numbers that we're seeing, it looks like she's going to fall just short.

11:30 PM

Wolf Blitzer: And we have a major projection, Hillary Rodham Clinton will become the first woman to win the presidency. The Democrats will win a presidential election for the first time since 2004, following two terms of John McCain, and we can make this projection because we project that Florida with its 29 electoral votes will go to Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton will win Florida which gives her 289 electoral votes, Sarah Palin with 226 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton will win the presidency. Florida has gone to the winner in every election since 1996 and it will continue its streak as America's bellwether.

[Chips]

Prediction: Palin takes NV and NH, Clinton takes CO. 298-240 Clinton.

[S019]

Let's get a report from Hillary Clinton HQ right now

Reporter: Well when you called Florida, the crowd behind me erupted in cheers, and started chanting "break that ceiling." I spoke to a campaign representative, and they said that Senator Clinton will be speaking around midnight eastern time. But you can already start to see some of the crowd behind me throwing confetti and celebrating.

Wolf Blitzer, CNN will of course have live coverage of the Clinton victory speech, now let's head to Sarah Palin HQ in Anchorage

Reporter: I'm here at Sarah Palin HQ and obviously the crowd very quiet. We spoke with a representative for the campaign, who said they plan to concede actually any minute now. The campaign had been expecting a loss since at least around 8:30, if not earlier. Though one bright side for the Republicans tonight, is that the Senate is still up for grabs and as we saw with the past two years, it can be difficult to pass policy if you have a Senate that isn't on your side.

Wolf Blitzer: Okay, so John King, while we're waiting on the Vice President's concession speech, let's have a look at the battle for the Senate, the Democrats with 45 right now and the Republicans with 47, and we've called the presidency, so the Democrats need 5 more seats the Republicans need 4 more, can we have a look at some of the uncalled seats

John King: Sure, let's come up here to New Hampshire, presidentially, it's a Clinton lead, but a narrow one at 52-48, on the Senate level, Governor Hassan trails Senator Ayotte by the smallest of amounts, but it's basically tied 50-50. We come down to North Carolina, Senator Marshall with around a 1 pt lead here 50-49 and we're over 95% counted, the Democrats might just hang onto that. Let's come here to Missouri, Senator Blunt still leading Secretary of State Kander by around 3 pts, 49-46, of course this is one that the Republicans feel they have to have. Let's go down to Louisiana, this one isn't going to be decided tonight, it's going to a runoff, control of the Senate could come down to a runoff in Louisiana.

Wolf Blitzer: Hold on John, we're getting reports that Sarah Palin has taken the stage in Anchorage

Thank you, thank you.

This is obviously not the result that we wanted. I know that all of you are incredibly disappointed, and I am too. It feels so discouraging to put in all of this work and have it go to waste. However, Senator Clinton has won this election and we must respect that, around 10 minutes ago, I called her to concede this race. I promised to help with the transition of power in any way that I can as Vice President. However, we need to take a moment to recognize the historic nature of this election. I, of course, was the first woman Vice President, for the first time in history, a major party nominated a woman for president, and both major parties did so. We need to respect the historic nature of this election. Millions of little girls across the country saw two women running for president and saw our nation's first female president be elected tonight. Those little girls know that they can do that too. I want to thank Dean and his amazing family, for staying by me throughout this campaign. I also want us to take a moment to recognize the importance of our democratic system. Our system of government works, as Vice President, I've traveled to many countries where people do not enjoy the same democratic rights as we do. Most of all, I want all of the strategists and volunteers who worked on our campaign, or even anyone thinking of entering politics, whether it be running for office or strategizing or fundraising to go for it. Our democracy is stronger when there are more voices in it. I hope that Senator Clinton will be a voice for all of us, and it is important that we give her the chance to govern. We need to come into this administration with an open mind, and recognize the mandate that she has earned. Lastly, I want to thank everyone who has helped me get to where I am today, whether it be my family or my friends, I want to thank all of you for your hard work not just in this campaign, but in life, as well. Thank you, and may God bless you all. Thank you!

Wolf Blitzer: So, we just heard Sarah Palin concede the presidential election. Made mention of the historic nature of this election and also in general a pretty uplifting speech for such a disappointing outcome.

Jake Tapper: Indeed, it was a pretty uplifting speech, but honestly the Republicans have good reason to be happy, the chances look good that they will take the Senate, and much of the McCain agenda passed during the 2008-2010 Congress, looks pretty secure.

Dana Bash: Yeah, and another thing is a lot of the Republican agenda has been pretty bipartisan too, for instance in 2015, you saw McCainCare passed and that was a bit crafted with lots of Democratic input, and also more importantly it avoiding ceding the healthcare issue to the Democrats which nearly cost them 2012

Jake Tapper: Yeah, absolutely, and also you saw McCain work with the Democrats to pass middle tax cuts. The Democrats will not acknowledge this, but there's a reason that the Democrats lost so badly in 2008 and part of it was the recession, but part of it was also that during 2006-2008, Al Gore was far less willing to work with the Republican House.

Wolf Blitzer: What type of gridlock can we expect in a Clinton presidency, if the Republicans do indeed win the Senate.

Dana Bash: For sure, both parties major initiatives seem pretty safe, it seems that the tax cuts pushed by John McCain back in 2009 looks pretty safe and Al Gore's Social Security reform looks pretty safe. Though if anyone is going to be successful at working with the other party in Congress, it's Hillary Clinton. She has a long bipartisan reputation in Washington, and there are absolutely Republican moderates like Senator Johnson of Connecticut or Senator Smith of Oregon or Senator Collins of Maine, who will be open to working with her.

Wolf Blitzer: Of course, congressional Democrats and President McCain have little in common and have still largely clashed throughout this administration.

Dana Bash: Indeed, they have and that's why we've mentioned gridlock so much tonight. Most of President McCain's agenda, whether it be the tax cuts that he passed following the recession to stimulate the economy, or whether it be the invasion of Iran that he approved when the US found out that Iran was enriching uranium. Much of that happened from 2008-2010 when Republicans had majorities in both Houses, they of course lost their House majority in 2010, and since then we haven't seen much. Of course, we saw the push for McCainCare in 2015, and it largely took healthcare out of discussion for this election. We saw the expansion of middle class and lower class tax cuts from the post-stimulus rates. Of course, the question remains if Republicans win the Senate, where will Hillary Clinton try to find common ground with the Republicans. John McCain picked an issue that wins him his base, taxes, and an issue that'd help win the election, healthcare. Of course the Democratic base is probably going to want to want more action on that front as well as a strengthening of Al Gore's cap-and-trade scheme, which was pretty weak since it needed moderate Republicans and Democrats to get passed. It seems unlikely she'll get either done, but it seems the Democrats might hold on to the Senate with sizable overperformances in North Carolina and Arizona and the chance that they pickup New Hampshire.

11:50 PM

Wolf Blitzer: We can make a major projection, and that is that Senator Elaine Marshall of North Carolina will win re-election, a huge boost to Democratic hopes for keeping the Senate, Senator Marshall wins re-election, so let's take a look at where the race for the Senate stands right now. That gives us 45 Senate seats for the Democrats and 48 for the Republicans. We can also project that Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri will hold his seat in a closer than expected contest, but Senator Blunt will win Missouri, giving us 49 Senate seats for the Republicans and 45 for the Democrats

12:00 AM
 
Wolf Blitzer: Let's go live now to Manhattan where Hillary Clinton will speak at any moment

Loud speaker: Please welcome the next President of the United States, Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton

(Hillary walks onto stage and under a glass ceiling, which she smashes on her way to the speaking podium)

Clinton: Thank you, America

Today, we've finally shattered that highest, hardest glass ceiling, I want to thank all of you who supported my campaign and made this possible. A short while back, Vice President Palin called me to concede the election, I accepted her call, and expressed the best wishes for the transition. I want to make one thing clear, whether you voted for me or not, I will be a President for all Americans. Despite the brutality of this campaign, I assure you there is more that unites us than divides us. Today, the forgotten men and women of America are who won. I believe that in my administration we can find common ground with the Republicans, who seem to have likely won the Senate, in many ways. I believe we can work together to end the gender pay gap and ensure women are paid $1 for every dollar that men are. I believe we can work together to raise the minimum wage so that everyone in America can survive on one job. I believe we can work together to expand the framework built by McCainCare into the plan that I championed two decades ago. Even if not every Republican will support these plans, I am confident we can get some moderate Republicans who will. If Republicans will not support my plans, I will not be afraid to use executive orders to tackle the major issues of our day including climate change. I will also not be afraid to build off the successes of President McCain in major policy areas. I remain committed to maintaining the American presence in Iran until we can be sure that they will not enrich uranium again. I will not let my administration be plagued by partisan bickering. If I have the will to do something, I will not back down! Now, I want to take a moment to talk to all those young girls watching today and I want to tell them, that this is proof that in America, with enough hard work, you can be whoever you want to be. It has been an honor to be a champion for millions of women and young girls across America. We witnessed a historic election where both major parties nominated women, the first time in history that either party had done so. However, I want to remind every women in America that our work is not done. This is merely just a step in the women's movement first started at Seneca Falls. We still need to push for true equality for women not just here in America, but also around the world. This is a struggle and fight that will extend past my lifetime and likely past yours too, but we cannot get discouraged, the harder we fight now, the less that our future generations will have to fight. I am ready to work hard and fight for every American. However, it will not just be, I, who will fight for you. My wonderful running mate and the future Vice President, Mark Warner, has a long record of standing up for everyday Americans and he will continue to do so as my Vice President. My husband, Bill, who dedicated his administration to fighting for everyday Americans will continue to be working hard, just as I worked hard during his administration. I want to thank both of them, as well as my entire campaign team for the hard work they put into this campaign to make this result possible. Most importantly, I want to thank every American who voted for me to be your champion, I won't let you down. Thank you all!
 

Wolf Blitzer: Hillary Clinton gave her victory speech and it definitely was quite different from the Vice President's concession speech earlier.

Jake Tapper: Notably a much more different tone in this speech compared to the one that Vice President Palin gave. There was some hope yes, but it was not the type of grasping or consoling hope that we heard in the Palin speech. There was an element of victory to this speech. Now people might say "well of course, there was an element of victory, because it was a victory speech," but it should be noted Democrats' hopes of getting anything substantial done really rest on banking on Alaska's independence streak winning out over the Vice President's popularity there

Dana Bash: Yeah exactly, Hillary Clinton definitely laid out a bold plan, but not much of it is going to be done. For instance, when McCainCare was being negotiated, many Republicans did not go along with the negotiations. Neither Minority Leader McConnell nor Minority Leader Boehner whipped their caucus for the votes. It was very much a negotiation driven by Democrats including the likes of Tom Daschle, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, Steny Hoyer, and Hillary Clinton. Many of whom wanted to go further, but the President threw cold water on that idea.

Jake Tapper: Yeah, earlier tonight you mentioned Senators Johnson and Collins as possible target votes for the Democrats in this upcoming session, but even they, were skeptical of the idea. I mean Senator Johnson is at least open to it, Senator Collins has basically already said that she would not support the Clinton healthcare plan.

Dana Bash: Also more importantly, even if the administration can get enough Republican votes to put together a hypothetical budget reconciliation package on healthcare, or equal pay, or climate change, that package is not going to get a floor vote if Mitch McConnell is the leader, or at the very least, if he brings it up, it is not going to be brought up as a reconciliation package.

Jake Tapper: Yeah exactly, while it sounds optimistic that you can somehow get enough Republican support to get a floor vote on issues like healthcare or equal pay, it just seems unrealistic. In fact, I don't even think they'd get the votes to bypass a filibuster on these issues, if they can't use budget reconciliation.

Dana Bash: We've mentioned climate change several times tonight, yet interestingly there was no mention of her promise to expand Al Gore's signature achievement, which has been a top goal of Democrats, since really not long after it was passed.

Jake Tapper: That was indeed one of the more interesting parts of her speech, especially since it is of course a top priority for Democrats. Another one of the more interesting aspects to me was the emphasis on the struggles of the women's movement, which certainly gave her speech a more universal appeal.

Wolf Blitzer: Stand by we have some projections

12:40 AM

Wolf Blitzer: We have a projection, Hillary Clinton will win New Hampshire and its 4 electoral votes, she adds to her total, she now has 293 electoral votes compared to 226 for Sarah Palin





So, John King, the Republicans are at 49 seats, just two short of what they need to take the majority, where do things realistically stand.

John King: Well, first and foremost, we have Louisiana going to a runoff, but the Republican has led big in runoff polling there, and we don't expect much to change on that front.

Wolf Blitzer: So, we called New Hampshire for Hillary Clinton and that is a seat that the Republicans are of course defending, how do things look in New Hampshire.

John King: Well let's go to New Hampshire, the Democrat, Governor Hassan now with a narrow lead, 50.1-49.5, and when it's that close, especially in this small of a state, even with over 90% in, it's difficult to make a projection. Now we're going to go over to Nevada, presidentially Sarah Palin leading here 51-48, we flip to the Senate race and Senator Reid leads, narrowly, but it's a lead, 51-49, but again, it's getting late, time is running out. Here in Arizona, this is probably one of the best results of the night for the Democrats, Senator Napolitano has established a three point lead, 51-48, over her opponent, Representative Gosar, it looks like it will be enough, but we're not sure yet, Sarah Palin leads by around 5, 52-47. Let's now go to Colorado, a state that hasn't been called yet on the presidential level. Hillary Clinton leads here by around 2 pts, 50-48, and Senator Bennet with a larger lead in the Senate race over Darryl Glenn, 52-48, honestly Democrats should feel very good about all three of these Southwest races so far. Of course, Alaska has yet to close, and it's a state that has a bit of an independent streak, maybe the Democrats can indeed hold onto the Senate tonight, a task that many thought was very improbable coming in, simply due to the sheer amount of seats that they had to defend.


Wolf Blitzer: Hold on John, it is 1:00 and we can make some projections

Wolf Blitzer: We can project that Alaska and its 3 electoral votes go to Sarah Palin, the Vice President will win her home state. That gives us 293 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 230 electoral votes for Sarah Palin



Wolf Blitzer: In the battle for the Senate, which may well come down to Alaska, it is too early to call between Senator Knowles, the Democrat, and Dan Sullivan, the Republican, a former Anchorage mayor not to be confused with Dan Sullivan, who lost the state's other Senate seat to Mark Begich in 2014. However, we can make a Senate projection, in Colorado, Senator Michael Bennet wins re-election defeating Darryl Glenn, and holding the seat for the Democrats. That gives 46 Senate seats for the Democrats and 49 for the Republicans.

[S019]

1:25 AM

Wolf Blitzer: We have some major projections to make. Sarah Palin will win the state of Nevada and its 6 electoral votes, the state of her running mate, Senator Heller, it goes to Sarah Palin. That gives her 232 electoral votes compared to 293 for Hillary Clinton. Sarah Palin is also the apparent winner in the Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, a district based around Omaha, where there was a very competitive race, Sarah Palin will hold on there. That gives us 236 electoral votes for Sarah Palin and 293 for Hillary Clinton. It also leaves Colorado as the only state that we have not called tonight.


We can also make some calls for the Senate, Senator Janet Napolitano, the Democrat, will win re-election in Arizona, she defeats her opponent Representative Gosar, who had drawn attention for his several controversial remarks on the campaign trail. That gives us 47 Senate seats for the Democrats and 49 for the Republicans.



Wolf Blitzer: Earlier we had been talking about how Hillary Clinton would probably have to deal with a Republican Senate, but the Democrats have definitely closed the gap by holding North Carolina and Arizona

Dana Bash: Yes, it is indeed pretty surprising, how well the Democrats have done in their McCain/Palin seats, they lost the ones that people thought they'd lose, but the competitive ones, they've held on in, for the most part. Of course, even if they do hold Alaska, they need to flip New Hampshire, which looks like anyone's game right now. But this has definitely been a very good election for the Democrats, coming into this election you heard talk of them losing 7, 8, 9, 10 seats. Had Palin done better in some of these states, especially in Florida and North Carolina, you definitely could've started to see the dominoes fall.

Jake Tapper: Yeah, Dana, you touched on an interesting point and that's that Hillary Clinton does indeed deserve a lot of credit for keeping the margins close enough to the point where these incumbents could plausibly outrun her, that was true in Arizona and it was true in North Carolina. Of course, the Republicans didn't help their chances in Arizona by nominating Rep. Gosar who was probably one of the worst fits for the state imaginable. Even if they do lose Alaska, you can say this was definitely a good night for the Democrats. If they do lose Alaska, but win New Hampshire, there's always that long-shot Hail Mary in Louisiana. Low chance that they get it, but we've seen more surprising things

Dana Bash: Of course this election is going to sting for the Democrats since they've lost some of their most distinguished members: Evan Bayh, Leader Daschle, and Byron Dorgan. But overall, they have much reason to be happy as we were saying earlier, several moderates like Senator Johnson of CT, Senator Chaffee of RI, Senator Kean of NJ, Senator Smith of OR, and Senator Collins of ME would all be open to working with her, you add in some other members who could plausibly work with her like Senator Wilson of NM, and you know maybe you get to a point where you can break the filibuster, if not you're at least at a point where you have more than enough support to try to pass some compromise measure through budget reconciliation. I think this Congress is better for Hillary Clinton than the 2014 Congress was for John McCain, though that caucus obviously had its fair share of moderate Democrats, too, including two who went down tonight, Senator Mongiardo and Senator Bayh.

1:40 AM

We can make a projection, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada has held on to his Senate seat against Republican challenger Representative Joe Heck, the Democrats will hold on to this seat, that gives us 48 Senate seats for the Democrats and 49 for the Republicans:



We can also project that Hillary Clinton will carry Colorado and its 9 electoral votes, she becomes the first Democrat to win Colorado, since her husband and future First Gentleman of the United States, Bill Clinton, won it back in 1992. This gives us 302 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton, compared to 236 for Sarah Palin. It also completes the electoral map tonight.



Wolf Blitzer: So, John King, the Democrats have taken the Presidency and they've held the House, now all eyes are on the Senate, but a chance for Democrats to get their first trifecta since the 2004 elections.

John King: Yes, and Democrats need both New Hampshire and Alaska realistically, Alaska counts slow, so we won't know the result there, unless either side runs away with it, and right now, we look at Alaska, and this is a bad sign for the Democrats, Mayor Sullivan up 7 over Senator Knowles, 53-47. Now, let's go over to New Hampshire, and Governor Hassan has a wider lead at 50.3-49.3, this might be big enough for Senator Ayotte to not come back from it, but we'll see. In fact, the only reason we're even talking about the Senate is that almost across the board, the Democrats outran Hillary Clinton and the Republicans underran Sarah Palin, and there will be many questions as to why that happened, but if Republicans do lose the Senate, it may be because they didn't distance themselves enough from Sarah Palin.

2:00 AM

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 2 AM, and we can project that the Democrats have picked up the Senate Seat in New Hampshire, Governor Maggie Hassan has defeated the Republican incumbent, Kelly Ayotte, giving the Democrats 49 Senate seats compared to 49 for the Republicans.



3:30 AM

John King: Well this latest batch we got out of Alaska, it doesn't look good for Senator Knowles, and now Mayor Sullivan, the lead is up to 10 now, 55-45, however, again this was a state that was won big by Sarah Palin, she won it 27 points, 63-36 and a 9 point overperformance is indeed incredible, and what we're seeing again and again tonight is that the Democrats likely  lost their majority, because they were unable to outrun Hillary Clinton by enough in heavily Republican states, but they held on enough in lean Republican states to perhaps have a shot in 2018, especially given that the Republicans hold seats in states like Connecticut, New Jersey, and New Mexico, which voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton tonight, but for now, it looks like, just like Al Gore, Hillary Clinton is going to enter office, with a chamber hostile to her, for President Gore, it was the House, for President-elect Clinton, it will likely be the Senate.

3:50 PM

Wolf Blitzer: We can project that Republicans will win Alaska, likely winning Senate control, as they are heavily favored to win the Louisiana runoff. Mayor Sullivan, the Republican, has defeated the Democratic incumbent Senator Tony Knowles. That gives us 50 Senate seats for the Republicans, compared to 49 for the Democrats




LA runoff results:

63: Boustany (R)
37%: Campbell (D)

Final Results:

Presidency (Democratic Gain from Republican):

Clinton: 302 EV, 52%
Palin: 236 EV, 47%

Senate Results (Republican Gain from Democratic):

Democrats: 49 (-4)
Republicans: 51 (+4)

Seats changing hands:

D->R
SD (Defeat of Incumbent)
ND (Defeat of Incumbent)
IN (Defeat of Incumbent)
KY (Defeat of Incumbent)
AK (Defeat of Incumbent)

R->D
NH (Defeat of Incumbent)

House: (Democratic Hold)

Democratic: around 235
Republican: around 200

[OSR stands with Israel]

Seems like Palin was able to speeden trends ITTL where the map kinda looks like a potential OTL 2016 map which makes sense given the type of candidate she was. I do think though that the GOP caucus will be more moderate than OTL so Hillary should be able to get parts of her agenda passed congress here as well.


Anyway Amazing TL and Great Work !!!

[OSR stands with Israel]

The next election I plan to do is President George HW Bush vs Mario Cuomo in 1992(No Perot)

[OSR stands with Israel]

NBC News Special Report : 1992 Election Preview:

Brokaw: This has been one of the most exciting races in recent memories , a race which started with the President almost guaranteed to lead his party to a 4th consecutive term in the White House for nearly all of 1991 and for the first few months of 1992, faltered hard beginning in April and Governor Mario Cuomo of New York surged ahead of the President in the polls. From that point on the Governor with the exception of the immediate aftermath of the Republican National Convention has seemed like the heavy favorite to unseat the President .

The race though has tightned in the last 3 weeks as the 8 point the Governor enjoyed in September has dropped to 4 points but if you look at our polling map you can see how much of an uphill path the President will have tommorow.

To give you a better understanding of the polls we not only have the normal Blue for Republicans , Red for Democrats, Grey for Pure Tossup but different shadings as well with a light shading indicating a 2-5 point lead for a candidate, a medium shading indicating a 5-10 point lead and a dark shading indicating a double digit polling lead.




New York Governor Mario Cuomo (D-NY)/Senator Al Gore(D-TN) 267 50%
President George Bush(R-TX)/Vice President Dan Quayle 215 46%



Brokaw: As you can see the President will have to sweep the tossups in order to be reelected while the Governor only needs one of those tossups. Due to this the President is trying very hard to keep California a state that has gone Republican 9 of the last 10 presidential elections in his column

Russert: Yes California is a state that at the Presidential level has gone Republican in every election since 1952 with the exception of 1964 and is a huge prize with 54 electoral votes which would make all the tossups but one irrelevant if the President wins it but it seems to be difficult. The polls indicate a 3 to 3 and a half point lead for the Governor here and even though its down from the near double digit lead the Governor , remember those polls were showing massive amount of voters as undecided . An example of this is the polls a month ago showed the Governor up here 48-39 while now he is up 49-45/46ish . Now former President Ronald Reagan who is very popular here has been barnstomping the state for President Bush and the both of them are due for a joint rally in Los Angeles in 30 minutes and Republicans have put a tough on crime measure called the three strikes and you are out measure and are hoping that measure can carry the President over but according to polls it seems hard to see.


Brokaw: What about other midwestern battlegrounds like Ohio, Michigan, Missouri


Russert: Again bad news for the President again as while he is not as behind as he was a month ago , that is more cause he got more of the undecided voters back home rather than cause any voters leaning Governor Cuomo's way to vote for him. For example in Detriot in places like Macomb and Oakland places where while he is up he isnt running up the numbers anywhere to the extent Republicans have for the past two decades and their margins in rurals areas have decreased too. In Missouri the same seems true where Republicans arent getting the margins they typically put up in Republican counties here.

Ohio on the other hand , the President leads 49-48 but again no Republican has won the Presidency without Ohio and thats keeping it awfully close for comfert.


Brokaw: John , what about the senate races

Chancellor: Ok lets look at our senate battleground which has exactly 10 battlgrounds , 5 held by each party which means no matter what the Democrats are basically guaranteed to hold the senate come January.


Vulnerable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire- Likely Republican
New York- Tossup
Pennsylvania- Lean Republican
Wisconsin- Tossup
California- Likely Democratic

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina- Lean Republican
South Carolina- Tossup
Georgia- Tossup(Lean Runoff)
Ohio - Likely Democratic
California- Tossup
Washington- Likely Democratic


Chancellor: So as you can see both parties basically are expected to gain one senate seat each and both parties also have to seats the possibly can lose as well. Those tossups are New York where Democrat Robert Abrams is hoping to ride Governor Cuomo coatails to potentially upset Republican senator Al D'Amato though he is currently tailing there by around a point to point and a half. In Wisconsin Republican Senator Bob Kasten is in a surprinsgly competive race against Democratic Senator Russ Feingold and now trails Mr.Feingold by 1.

Democrats are worried they could also lose South Carolina where Senator Fritz Hollings who seemed to be safe for a long time could be doomed by Governor Cuomo weakness here, and in California where Senator Barbara Boxer is tied with her Republican opponent.


Brokaw  : That does it for our special report previewing the 1992 election , and tomorrow night beginning at 7 PM ET we will provide full coverage of the election  and we hope you will join us

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 1):

7:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brokaw: Good Evening and Welcome to NBC's coverage of the 1992 election where we will be finding out whether President Bush will get his party a 4th term in the White House or will Governor Cuomo bring his party out of the wilderness and take back the White House for the first time in 12 years. We have already been able to project that President Bush will carry Vice President Quayle's home state of Indiana and we can project he will carry the states of Florida, Virginia and South Carolina which all were states that were considered safe for the President while Governor Mario Cuomo will win the formerly strongly Republican New England state of Vermont which had voted Republican everytime in its history with the exception of 1964 and now 1992. We are unable at this point to make a project in Georgia, Kentucky and New Hampshire.




Bush 58
Cuomo 3


Chancellor: Yes and in the key senate races we can project that Republican Governor Judd Gregg will win the senate seat in New Hampshire and while thats no surprise it is still an important win for the Republicans who hope to reduce their overall defict in the senate.


Vulnerable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington


Brokaw: Now lets go to Tim Russet for our exit poll

Russert: Yes and the results indicate a very close race, so lets show you some of them and we will start with gender


Gender:

Male : 48% ; Bush 52% Cuomo 47%
Female: 52% ; Cuomo 52% Bush 47%

Race:

White: 84% ; Bush 55% Cuomo 44%
African American: 10% : Cuomo 89% Bush 10%
Hispanic: 4% : Cuomo: 63% Bush 36%
Asian: 1% : Bush 59% Cuomo 40%

Age:

18-29: 17% ; Cuomo 50% Bush 49%
30-44: 33% ; Bush 51% Cuomo 48%
45-59: 26% ; Bush 50% Cuomo 49%
60+: 24% ; Cuomo 52% Bush 47%


Income:

Under 15k: 13% ; Cuomo 57% Bush 42%
15k-50k: 53% ; Cuomo 51% Bush 48%
50k-75k: 19% ; Bush 52% Cuomo 47%
75k: 15% ; Bush 57% Cuomo 42%


Russert: So our exit polls is showing an extremely tight race and if it is true this will be the closest election since possibly 1960. As for the exit polls themselves, it doesnt seem much of a surprise. All I can say from these ones is we will be in for potentially a very long election night.


7:30:

Brokaw: The polls have closed in 3 states and we can project that Governor Cuomo will carry the state of West Virginia while President Bush will carry the states of North Carolina and Georgia which again all are no surprises. We are unable though to project Ohio at this moment which also should come as no surprise



Bush 85
Cuomo 8


Chancellor: So far no surprises on the map but a key state currently is basically a tie between President Bush and Governor Cuomo. This state could potentially decide the whole ball game so how the state votes is definetly important .


Brokaw: Alright we will be sending it back to your local stations now, and will be back at the top of the hour

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 2):

8:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Chancellor: It is 8 PM in the East and we have some breaking news to project

Breaking News: Democrats Retain Control of the House of Represenatives

Chancellor: That is that the Democrats will retain control of the house of representatives and while that is no surprise it will mean Democrats will extend their unprecedented streak of controlling the House of Representatives to 40 consecutive years. Some good news for House of Republicans is just like expected they will make some serious gains though as we project they will gain anywhere from 21 to 33 seats tonight. The reason for this is one there have been unusally a high amount of retirements this year, plus Democrats have less influence over redistricting than they normally do. Ok back to Tom for some Presidential Projections

Brokaw: Yes , polls have just closed in a slew of states big and small and NBC News can now project President Bush will carry the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma,Kansas and his home state of Texas which of course is a huge prize. We can also project that Governor Cuomo will carry the states of Massachusetts, Maryland, Deleware and a big midwestern prize in Illinois meaning the Governor so far has flipped 4 states the President won 4 years ago so far tonight. We are unable to make projections though in New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine, Pennsylvania,  Michigan , Missouri and the home state of Cuomo's running mate Al Gore which of course is Tenneessee.



Bush 147
Cuomo 55

Brokaw : So far in Kentucky with 75% in now , President Bush now leads by a narrow 2 points , in Ohio still very early but the President leads .

Russert: In the Senate races NBC News is also able to project that Senator John Glenn will be reelected in Ohio which of course is no surprise. One major race that has serious upset potential is South Carolina though where Democratic Senator Fritz Hollins currently is trailing his Republican opponent and even if he manages to win will be just barely.


Vulnerable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington


Brokaw : So John What do you think think of the results so far

Chancellor: Well they indicate exactly what our exit poll said which is this election is going to be very very close . As for the Presidents leads in Ohio and Kentucky, remember that both states were considered the most favorable out of the pure battlegrounds for the President and he still will need to sweep the tossups in order to win .

Russert: Not necessary John , remember that some of these lean states the President made a play being mostly being New Jersey and California were states have closely mirrored the national polls this year and if our exit poll is showing that the national vote is a basically a tossup at this point , I would say so are California and New Jersey . If  the President carries New Jersey that eliminates the need for him to win New Mexico and either Tennessee or Missouri , and if he carries California that eliminates the need for the president to win any of those 3 and he’d just need to hold on to either Kentucky or Ohio and he gets over the top . So I’d say the battleground map definitely includes those two states at the moment .

8:30

Brokaw : The polls have just closed in Arkansas and we are currently unable to make a projection there . We are however able to project the President will carry the state of [color=blue ]New Hampshire [/color] and the Governor will carry the President’s father’s home state of Connecticut and will win at least 3 electoral votes in Maine .




Bush 151
Cuomo 66


8:47

Brokaw: We have a major projection to make and that is that Governor Cuomo will carry the state of Pennslyvania and its 23 huge electoral votes. Pennsylvania is a state that has voted with the winner in 9 of the last 10 election so it is definetly a huge win even though many of the pollsters expected Pennsylvania to fall into Governor Cuomo column .



Bush 151
Cuomo 89

Brokaw: Alright we will send it back to your local stations for a quick update on your local races and we will be back at the top of the hour

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 3):

9:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brokaw: Its 9 PM In the East and NBC News can now project that President Bush will carry the states of Nebraska, both North and South Dakota, Wyoming and Arizona while Governor Cuomo unsurprisingly will carry his home state and a giant electoral vote prize in New York along with Rhode Island and Minnesota which of course was the only state to be one by the Democrats 8 years ago. We are unable to though make projections at this moment in Wisconsin, Lousiana, Colorado and New Mexico.



Bush 173
Cuomo 136

Brokaw: With that Governor Cuomo will have already won more electoral votes than any Democrat since 1976 and 4 of the past 5 democratic nominees as well. Now lets go over to Tim for the results of some key senate races

Russert: Yes and that is Senator Terry Sanford the long time political figure in the state of North Carolina has been defeated by Republican Lauch Faircloth who back in the 1960s was an ally of Mr. Sanford. So with that the Republicans have made their first gains so far in the senate

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Brokaw: So John any surprises so far

Chancellor: Not so far but I will say that this is showing once again the South's influence in the nation. The way things looks like the President is still in this race despite the fact he may only win 4 Electoral votes in the North East, which other than Barry Goldwater back in 1964 would be the worst showing for any Republican candidate in history. That shows that despite that result, the South has basically kept the President in the ball game now lets see if he can finish.

9:17

Brokaw: NBC News is now able to project that Governor Cuomo will win the state of Michigan and its 18 very important electoral votes while President Bush will carry Lousiana and its 9 votes




Bush 182
Cuomo 154


Chancellor: No surprise there, Michigan is a state that while it swings a lot is very dependent on the state of the economy. The one exception was 1976 and even then it was much closer than people thought due to the bad economy at the time. Now to be if you look at some of the other states we can see the President still holds narrow leads in Ohio and while more of Cleveland is still to come in, there is a lot of vote left in Cincinnati and Columbus so I definitely think the President is favored in Ohio, in New jersey it is basically the reverse but you can tell Governor Cuomo being from New York has helped him there, Tenneessee is basically a tie and Missouri its still way to early. So id say at this moment it looks like the Missouri or Tennessee will decide this race.


9:43

Brokaw: We have some major news to project and that is President Bush will carry the battleground state of Kentucky as well as Colorado though thats a state many thought he was almost certain to carry. On the other hand we can also project that Governor Cuomo will win the one outstanding electoral vote in Maine as well. 





Bush 198
Cuomo 155


Chancellor: While Governor Cuomo would have wanted Kentucky as a win in Kentucky probably would have meant he wins even without California given it was the most likely of all the pure tossups to go to Bush, Id say this isnt that bad news for him given things look good for him in New Jersey, Missouri now the numbers are in and he is slightly even ahead in Tenneessee so I would say at this point of the night the Governor is the slight favorite though its still anyone's ballgame.

Brokaw: Indeed it is, Tim how are some key senate races going

Russert's: Well in South Carolina Senator Hollins still trails with over 80% in and it seems like he very much could lose , in Georgia its very close but remember a candidate must also get 50% here or it goes to a runoff so this likely wont be decided till tommorow. Well we do though now can make another projection here and that is Senator Arlen Specter will indeed be reelected in Pennsylvania.

Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Russert: Some good news for the Democrats here though is in Wisconsin ,  Mr. Feingold seems to be doing well and you can say hes the favorite given the early numbers now though still much to go.

Brokaw: Alright we now will send it back to your local stations and we will be back at the top of the hour for more projections.

[President Johnson]

Looks about right, though I predict Cuomo to win. He takes the West coast, Iowa, Missouri, Tennessee and New Mexico, while Poppy narrowly keeps Ohio and Arkansas.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Thank you OSR, President Johnson, S019, and Chips (apologies to anyone I missed, but I think it's you four) for this project. Very cool to read, getting through it now.

Do you guys take requests?

You can post requests here and one of us could decide to take it up when its our turn if we feel we could do a good job with this.

[Chips]

Thank you OSR, President Johnson, S019, and Chips (apologies to anyone I missed, but I think it's you four) for this project. Very cool to read, getting through it now.

Do you guys take requests?

You can post requests here and one of us could decide to take it up when its our turn if we feel we could do a good job with this.

Cool. I was wondering about Cruz-Kasich (say their plan worked out) vs Sanders-Merkley (since he was Bernie's only Senate endorsement) in 2016. I wonder who would have won.

I could try taking a shot at it. I don't know when it's my turn but that's something I think I could do.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Thank you OSR, President Johnson, S019, and Chips (apologies to anyone I missed, but I think it's you four) for this project. Very cool to read, getting through it now.

Do you guys take requests?

You can post requests here and one of us could decide to take it up when its our turn if we feel we could do a good job with this.

Cool. I was wondering about Cruz-Kasich (say their plan worked out) vs Sanders-Merkley (since he was Bernie's only Senate endorsement) in 2016. I wonder who would have won.

I could try taking a shot at it. I don't know when it's my turn but that's something I think I could do.

You are coming up next(Will try to finish my turn by this time next week)

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 4):

10:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brokaw: Its 10 in the East and We can now project that President Bush will carry the states of Utah and Idaho while Governor Cuomo will carry Wisconsin. We are unable to make projections in Iowa, Montana or Nevada at this moment



Bush 207
Cuomo 166

Chancellor: We also have some breaking news to project at this moment

Breaking News: Democrats Retain Control of the Senate  

The reason we can project that is because NBC News can now project that the Democrat Russ Feingold will win in Wisconsin marking the first seat the Democrats have picked up tonight and also Senator Harry Reid will be elected in Nevada which means Democrats will have at least 52 seats when the night is all over which is more than enough to keep their majority.

Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Brokaw: So not really surprising they will hold the Senate but at this point them making gains looks unlikely given they are trailing in South Carolina, Georgia, and New York at this moment which means if that holds Republicans would pick up at least 1 seat when this night is over.


10:17:

Brokaw: We have two major battlegrounds to call in favor of the President and that is we can now project that Arkansas will be won by President Bush and also the critical state of Ohio which no Republican has ever won the White House without and only two Democrats have this century.



Bush 234
Cuomo 166

Chancellor: Now while that is indeed good for the President, the Cuomo camp must still be happy that they are up in Missouri and New Jersey cause if those two hold then if they can also win California like the polls indicated Governor Cuomo would still be the next president. Due to that I would say he is still the very narrow favorite at this moment though that can change


10:41:

Brokaw: NBC News can now make a major major projection and that is the Bellwether state of Missouri will be won by Governor Cuomo as well as the formerly Republican state of Iowa. We can also project that the two western states of Montana and Nevada unsurprisingly will go into the column of the President.




Bush 241
Cuomo 184

Chancellor: Well now we will see which midwestern bellweather state is correct, Missouri a state that has gone for the winner since 1956 or Ohio which has gone since 1960. Ironically the last time each were wrong was when Missouri when Democratic when a Republican won in 1956 and Ohio went Republican when a Democrat won in 1960 and one of those two will happen again.

Brokaw: We can see though the cheering at Mr.Cuomo's headquarters that they are very happy indeed about Missouri falling in their column

Chancellor: Hold on cause we have a senate call to make and that is that the Republican Thomas F. Hartnett will upset longtime Senator Fritz Hollings in South Carolina to be the next senator of that state.

Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Chancellor: This is a stunning upset nobody would have thought possible a year ago but it has happened

Brokaw: This year has been a very unpredictable cycle throughout as yes nobody would have predicted Senator Hollings would have lost a year ago but even in the Presidential nobody could have predicted a year ago that the President would face such a tough challange in his reelection bid, and 6 weeks ago nobody would have thought he would be this close to victory. So this year has been unpredictable and that result certainly is one

Chancellor: Thats why people maybe should stop making predictions so early in advance cause things can change fast

Brokaw: Hold on cause we have another projection to make and that is Governor Cuomo will win his neighboring state of New Jersey a state that hasn't gone Democratic since 1964 but him being from New York certainly helped him there



Bush 241
Cuomo 199

Chancellor: With this one Governor Cuomo will just need to win those 3 West coast states and if he does he will win this election.

Brokaw: Yes but he also cant afford to lose California either which means at this point the election will be decided by the largest state in the Union and that is California and given its size it probably will be at least a couple hours before we can make any projection there. Ok we will be back after this short break

[President Johnson]

California will decide the election. I think Cuomo definitely takes Oregon and Washington. Even Dukakis got them in 1988.

[2016]

California will decide the election. I think Cuomo definitely takes Oregon and Washington. Even Dukakis got them in 1988.

If Bush wins TN, NM, AK and WA he is home safe so Bush can win the Presidency without CA, Cuomo can't!

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 5):

11:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brokaw: The polls have closed in the West and we can project that Governor Cuomo will win the state of Hawaii . We though are unable to make a projection in the critical state of California as well as Oregon and Washington.



Bush 241
Cuomo 206

Chancellor: In the key senate race we can project former Democratic Mayor of San Francisco Dianne Feinstein will become the next Senator of California and in Georgia the Republican Paul Coverdell will indeed get over the 50% mark which means he will avoid a runoff and become the next senator from that state

Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Brinkely: The irony of Mrs.Feinstein win here is she will occupy the senate of Governor Pete Wilson who beat her in her bid to become governor of that state two years ago, and now she will be the next Governor. One interesting to note though is Mrs.Feinstein according to exit polls there will way outperform both Mr.Cuomo and Mrs.Boxer which maybe is showing that many people who vote Republican are willing to vote for a democrat perceived as a moderate and tough on crime.

Chancellor: Keep in mind Feinstein came close two years ago too so she has been running in California for quite some time that has also helped here here. Now Tim for the Presidential Race what will be watching

Russert: Well as you can see on this whiteboard we have 3 categories, one being 1988 results the other being 1992 results and the last being overall change. As you can see we will be tracking obviously the whole state of California where Democrats need a swing of 3.6 percent in order to take the state and also some counties such as : Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, San Bernardino , Sacramento, Fresno, Santa Clara,  San Joaquin, Contra Costa and San Francisco as the night goes on as well.

Currently, though something interesting though is as you all know California had a three strikes and you are out of provision on the ballot and we are told according to exit polls on that, it will pass with 70% of the vote which the President hopes can help him here. On the other hand, Democrats are hoping Governor Pete Wilson's unpopularity will help sink the Republicans here. Which factor influences swing voters or increase turnout for one side or the other is unknown and we will have to see.


11:34

Brokaw: We can now project in the Pacific Northwest states of Oregon and Washington that they indeed will be won by Governor Mario Cuomo. This is no surprise given both states voted Democratic 4 years ago but prior to that both were generally considered republican states albeit more moderate ones unlike the rest of the West.



Bush 241
Cuomo 224

Brokaw: So that means California will decide the election as if either candidate takes the state they will get over the 270 mark. So Tim its early but what did you find out in the key counties

Russert: Well it is indeed too early in LA and many of the others so we didnt mark them down yet as the numbers there would be misleading but so far the numbers we are getting indicate that this race will be very very close here. Reason is in Orange County which the President won by 36.7 points 4 years ago has been reduced to 34.2 points so far which is a 2.5 point swing in favor of the Democrats and many will say isnt that not enough. You would be right about that but remember they need a 3.6 swing state wide not in every county to take the state and as you can see in San Francisco county which many call the liberal version of Orange County, Governor Cuomo is winning it by 50.8 points which is 4.2 points better than Micheal Dukakis did there 4 years ago. So both sides are outperforming their benchmarks in their strongholds and we will see how it continues.

Brokaw: That is indeed interesting, and it does look like California will indeed be very very close as well. In the other two states outstanding, while they wont decide the election so far the Governor has just retaken the lead in Tennessee while its a virtual tie in New Mexico. Given the rest of the south, if the Governor manages to take Tennessee that likely will greatly increase the power of his running mate Al Gore if they win and even if they lose likely make him the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination 4 years from now. So for Al Gore, Tennessee is still very important to his prospects given those circumstances.

Chancellor: Yes indeed they are, and with that we also have another key senate race we can project and that is in Washington the Democrat Patty Murray will win that race and become the next Senator from that state.


Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Chancellor: In New York so far Senator D'Amato holds a very narrow 1 point lead but with over 90% in but so far it does looks like he will edge out his Democratic rival though we dont know that for sure yet which is why we haven't called that race. In California, it is very early but Congresswoman Barbara Boxer so far is underperforming Governor Cuomo in California which is certainly not good news for her given how close the presidential race is expected to be there.

Brokaw: Alright we will send it back to your local stations and will be back just before midnight for more election night coverage for this extremely close presidential race.

[2016]

I don't see Bush winning California given Governor Pete Wilsons Unpopularity as you've said so the Final Electoral Map will likely be:

278 Cuomo
260 Bush

Still, waaaay closer than in the original Election!

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 6):

12:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brokaw: The polls have closed in Alaska and currently we are unable to make a projection there



Bush 241
Cuomo 224

Brokaw: Lets go over now to Tim Russert who we are told has gotten some more updates from the team at the decision desk

Russert: Yes as we can see currently in California President Bush leads but of course its too early to make any judgements there but from what we can see in Sacramento County a county the President won by 3.4 points , currently Governor Cuomo leads there by two tenths of a percentage point which would be exactly the type of swing he needs to win. An issue though for the Governor is while he is overpeforming the baseline swing he needs in places like San Francisco, San Joquin , Santa Clara the flip side is true for places like Orange County, San Diego County, San Bernardino county so really we will have to wait probably till all the votes are counted to see who will have won the state and at this point, it looks like it will be decided by a third of a percentage point either way.


Chancellor: I think the real key will be Los Angeles County but given its size and how different areas of it can either be very democratic or republican it will be hard to use its data to judge who will win the state. I do think though at this point Congresswomen Boxer is in real trouble though and it looks more likely than not the Republicans have the edge in that senate race

12:32

Brokaw: We can now project Alaska will be won by President Bush which should come as no surprise.



Bush 244
Cuomo 224

Brokaw: Now with us is Former President Ronald Reagan, so thank you Mr.President for coming on

Reagan: Its my pleasure

Brokaw: President Reagan what are your thoughts so far on the results in California and how do you think that state will go

Reagan: Well the state certainly will be very close but I think President Bush will have the edge here. While Governor Cuomo is doing better than he needs in the Northern Part of the state, remember more people live in the Southern half and the fact the President is doing better there than he needs is good news for Los Angeles County which I think will be the deciding factor. I think in order for Governor Cuomo to win the state given the results in counties like Orange, San Diego , Santa Barbara all of which have lots of voters he will actually have to have a larger swing in LA than he does state wide in order to win the state.

Brokaw: Why do you think the polls were so off in this state

Reagan: Keep in mind polls always underestimate the Republican candidate in competitive major elections in the state. The reason for that is Democrats always have had a large lead in terms of voter registration as many of those Democrats are moderate to conservatives which makes it harder to get an accurate sample for polling. So despite polling, I always thought we had a chance here which is why I campaigned here as hard as I did for the President

Brokaw: If Governor Cuomo wins will you be willing to give him advice as well if he asks for it

Reagan: I dont know if he would ask for my advice but if he wants it of course I would be willing to help. At the end of the day we arent Republicans or Democrats first or even Conservatives or Liberals first but Americans first and if Governor Cuomo if he wins asks for my advice it would be my duty to give it.

Brokaw: Thanks for coming on Mr.President

Reagan: No problem

12:53:

Brokaw: We can now project that Governor Cuomo will carry the home state of his running mate Al Gore, Tennessee and its 11 electoral votes.



Bush 244
Cuomo 235

Brokaw: Currently the President still holds a very narrow lead in both New Mexico and California so Tim how are some of these key counties looking like

Russert: Well a good deal of Los Angeles County is in and someone from our decision desk team told us that the numbers now are starting to get representative so currently Governor Cuomo leads here by 8.3 points compared to the 5 point win Governor Dukakis had here 5 years ago which is a swing of 3.3 points which is less than the required number to take the state. For some interesting facts in the two senate races Congresswomen Boxer is only up 6 points which is of course terrible news for her there while Mayor Feinstein is up by a stunning 19 points here which is why she is winning by such a large margin.

Brokaw: Mrs.Feinstein is almost a perfect fit for this state as she is a Democrat from the Bay Area which gives her the support any dem needs there, but also has the ability to able to appeal to voters in the southern half of the state that Democrats usually are unable too thanks to her tough on crime stance along with being a moderate on fiscal issues. Due to this, its very likely if Senator Al Gore was the nominee instead of the Vice Presidential one hed have definitely won the state.

Chancellor: Yes I agree and probably by 6 to 8 points too. We do have a projection to make and that is in New York Senator Al D'Amato will be reelected which is disappointing news for Democrats who hoped they could pull of an upset here thanks to Governor Cuomo coattails which he definitely had but looks like the Democrats will fall short by around a point.

Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 7):

1:25:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brokaw: Around 2/3 of the votes are in California and the President lead has dropped to less than half a percentage point here so now lets go to Tim Russert to see some more updates from California

Russert: Los Angeles County by far the largest county in the state so far Governor Cuomo is up by around 8.5 points which is a 3.5 point swing from 4 years ago. In San Joaquin a place the President won by 9.8 points 4 years ago he is currently winning by 6.1 points a 3.7 point swing from 4 years ago. As you can see from this whiteboard, both candidates are pretty much similarly hitting or missing their targets so I believe this will go down to the last vote.

Chancellor: The way it looks like is we likely will be having some recounts here as well.


3:35:

Brokaw: 98% of the vote is in California now and the presidents lead here has dropped to a few thousand votes

Russert: Yup and again the reason is both candidates are hitting or missing their targets similiarly so it looks like we will be going to recount here.

Brokaw: Ok with us now is the Secretary of State of California March Eu to tell us more about what will happen now in this state that seems almost certainly will end up going to a statewide recount

Eu: First to keep in mind is there is no automatic recounts here in the state of California so it will have to be requested by whichever candidate is trailing after the initial count. Now if the margin is within 1000 votes or .015% of the total vote then the Governor can order a recount here so we will have to see how close it is before we figure out what will happen here given we have to count some of the absentee ballots that came from overseas as well

Brokaw: So Assuming this holds up and Governor Cuomo requests a recount, how long will it be before you will be able to certify the results

Eu: Well once the absentee ballots are counted we will begin the recount process and probably 2-3 weeks from now we will be able to certify the results.

Brokaw: Ok thanks from coming on

Eu: No problem

Chancellor: While we wont know the outcome of the Presidential election it seems like for at least two-three weeks we do know that in the California senate race, the Republican Bruce Herschensohn    will be the next senator of that state . With that the senate composition for the next two years will be 55 Democrats to 45 Republican, which means the Republicans will pick up two seats tonight.


Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Chancellor: We can also project in the House of Representatives Republicans will make a total of 27 gains tonight meaning the new balance in the House will be 240 Democrats to 194 Republicans to 1 Independent. It will be the most seats the Republicans will have had in the chamber since 1956 and many attribute this too the much more favorable district boundaries drawn after the census compared to previous decades and a lot of retirements. Despite those gains, the Democrats will still have a pretty clear majority in the house and their hold on that chamber looks pretty safe. Now over to Tom Brokaw for one last project

Brokaw: We are also able to project at this moment that Governor Cuomo will very narrowly win the state of New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes



Bush 244
Cuomo 240

Brokaw: Given we will not be able to project California for two more weeks and every senate race has been called, we will be signing of for this election night and it looks like we will have to wait quite some time to find out whether President Bush will be living in Washington DC or Texas over the next 4 years. I want to thank all of our viewers for watching us tonight and our staff here who made this night possible.



President Bush gives Statement About Too Close to Call Result in California:


Bush: I want to start of by thanking the over 104 million Americans who voted in yesterday's election and no matter which candidate you voted for I want to let you know our democracy is strong because of the civic duty you all partook in yesterday. Last night election also showed that the cynics who for many years have said voting is not important were proven wrong given how close the results are in a state as large as California and I hope it encourages Americans who may not partake in the process to do so in the future.

Last night when it became clear that how close the state of California would be I called Governor Mario Cuomo on the phone and we both agreed that the most important thing is one to let the process continue unimpeded from any political pressure. That begins with letting the overseas absentee ballots being counted and then we both agreed that it would be the best interest for the people of California and our nation for whoever is trailing after that to request a full statewide recount and whoever is leading to let a full statewide recount to be conducted as well. While it may take 2-3 weeks for this process to be completed, both Governor Cuomo and I agree it is much better to be patient and wait for the process to complete rather than have a result that questions the legitimacy of whoever is President for the next 4 years.