Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Oryxslayer]

Hard to say who would form a coalition, at least a majority one. M5S is pretty much off the table for any coalition, since any coalition would include an establishment party. A grand coalition similar to Germany's would be extremely unstable, and the only other possibility I see is a minority government.

Just hopping in, like I always do before an election. Always follow the thread and issues off-and-on, until 2 weeks out, get up to speed, then try and participate in the thread.

Anyway, it actually is actually within the realm of possibility for the right-wing alliance under Berlusconi to win a majority outright. Polls before the embargo didn't put him that far off, and pollsters constantly said that there were a bunch of FPTP seats in the south between the right alliance and MS5 that were extremely close and would decide tge result. If Berlusconi gets close, but not exactly a majority, he will probably get it by flipping MPs as you do in Italian politics.

[Oryxslayer]

A right-wing-M5S coalition is a foregone conclusion, no?

What? M5S currently have said no to most coalitions, and its probably unlikely they enter one unless M5S is leading it. For example, Lega + M5S will probably have a majority, but will most likely not join togeather do to opposition on most issues that are not Europe or migrants. Rather, it looks like Berlusconi's Right will have a plurality at minimum, perhaps a majority, most likely something like 42-48% of seats. That probably means he pulls MPs and parties to form a government, or ditches the farther right for center-center left parties.


Also on the topic of PD below 20% individually. It is a possibility, but if it happens, it will probably be because of E+ rising in the last moment s of the campaign. The PD has already lost the working class types who would leave, and the swingyer types have already broken for Berlusconi. If their going under 20, it's because loyal leftists vote for other left parties.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/969956753134809089

I thought M5S got rid of the clown...

[Oryxslayer]

Any seat projections? How high a percentage would the FI/Lega alliance need to gain an outright majority?

There are a bunch of other minors in the alliance so it is best to just call it the 'Right.' But, to answer your question, we don't know. The new FPTP seats complicate things. As has been repeated here and by pundents elsewhere, there are an insane amount of to-close-to-call seats in the south between the Right and M5S, and a few in the cities between the Left and the Right. Its quite possible if the gaps between the alliances are large enough, for Berlusconi to potentially form a government with something like 38%. Or the M5S vote could be concentrated enough to keep Berlusconi far from the magic 50%+1.

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout reports according to EuropeElects compared to 2016. Probably benifits M5S - strong south, neutral for the Right, poor red belt numbers for the Left.

[Oryxslayer]

Mind you, the 2016 referendum had high turnout in the north, and piss poor in the south, so it might not be the best comparison.

[Oryxslayer]

Have now seen the 7PM exit polls thanks to a well-placed source...green-yellow wave.
I've never hoped this much that an exit poll was complete garbage.

You don't mean a Jeb! meme wave, I hope...

[Oryxslayer]

When do polls close?

20min

[Oryxslayer]

Exit polls from RAI, be warned, exit polls as stated before, are notoriously horrible in Italy:

M5S: 29-32
PD: 20.5-23.5
FI: 13-16
LN:  13-16
Fdl: 4-6
LeU: 3-5
+E: 2.5-4.5
Ncl: 1-3
I: 0-2
CP: 0-2

[Oryxslayer]

different site

[Oryxslayer]

M5S and Lega overperformance.

For sure M5S.  I think LN mostly in line with pre election polls

And that overpreformance isn't all that large, compared to probably what most here were expecting.

[Oryxslayer]

Final turnout accourding to the official site appears to be 72.05%

[Oryxslayer]

Oh, and here is something to remember, the exit polls were sh**t in 2013, but one way they were sh**t was overestimating M5S. So the end result might exactly match the final polls, if that bias remains true.

[Oryxslayer]

So heres a question, how exactly do the results tabulation work? The main site has tabulated about 20% of the precincts(?) but, not counted their party vote. I guess it works like -> count votes, count the party results lower chamber, count the party results senate?

[Oryxslayer]

Mediaset:
M5S   31% (+-2)
FI      14% (+-2)
Lega 14% (+-2)
FdI      5% (+-1)
NcI      1.5% (+-1)
PD     19.5% (+-2)
+E       3.0% (+-1)
CiPo    0.7% (+-0.3%)
Insieme 0.8% (+-0.3%)
LeU     4% (+-1)

Problem with this poll is sum of medium vote shares is around 94%.   Not sure others will get up to 6%

Rai's had a high other vote, so 6% isn't out of the cards.

[Oryxslayer]

We are about halfway done counting the precincts, turnout at this time is 74.02% to 75.72 of 2013.

Notable changes:

Basilicata: 66.67 -> 69.26
Emilia Romagna: 81.24 -> 78.13
Molise: 77.35 ->70.88
Sicily: 66.19 -> 63.95
Trento: 81.95 -> 71.65

[Oryxslayer]

8 Senatorial Precincts out of 61401, mostly from the north:

Right 284 votes, 44.30%
M5S 166 votes, 25.89%
Left: 149 votes, 23.24%

Lega is taking up 27 of that 44%

[Oryxslayer]

Oh, and here is something to remember, the exit polls were sh**t in 2013, but one way they were sh**t was overestimating M5S. So the end result might exactly match the final polls, if that bias remains true.

?

Precedes to wipe a large amount of egg of his face, for taking sh**t at face value from random twitters.

[Oryxslayer]

8 Senatorial Precincts out of 61401, mostly from the north:

Right 284 votes, 44.30%
M5S 166 votes, 25.89%
Left: 149 votes, 23.24%

Lega is taking up 27 of that 44%

Where are you watching results?

http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/votanti/20180304/votantiCI

Also got Rai open and am watching that.

[Oryxslayer]

Rai are trying their hand at some initial projections - they popped up on screen for a moment, missed the exact numbers. But they had Right about 50 off of Lower chamber, at max, 10 off in senate I believe.

[Oryxslayer]

SWG projection (I have no idea how they got it, but apparently it's based on 12% of precincts) has M5S at 33%, PD at 18.7%, Lega at 17.4%, FI at 14%.

This is insanity.

We barely have 0.1% of senatorial precincts on the main site, on the main site, and most of those precincts are from Liguria, Tuscany, Venice, and especially Piedmont, so Lega is doing incredibly well because it is the north.

[Oryxslayer]

Very early senatorial results 269/61401 precincts, heavily biased towards Friuli, Liguria, Lombardy, Tuscany, Venice, and especially Piedmont, aka the North:

41.66% Right:
-25.79% Lega
-12.01% Forza

25.82% M5S

25.05% Left
-21.10% PD

[Oryxslayer]

We are now over 1% of senatorial precincts counted! The results are still biased towards the north and Piedmont in particular, but we now have significant stuff from places like Abruzzia, Campaignia, and Marche.

727/61401:

Right - 38.23%
-21% League
-13% Forza

M5S - 29.69%

Left - 24.29%
-20.5% PD


Also, as has been said many times, M5S and Lega could join a coalition, however they agree on almost nothing besides migrants. More likely if M5S is to govern is M5S+PD Supply/confidence.

[Oryxslayer]

Val D'Aosta is done counting voters. Went from 77.08% in 2013 to 72.40% turnout.

[Oryxslayer]

So like how do we find the results because I have no clue on how to navigate the election website.

Same here.  I can only get to turnout figures but not real results.

I am referring to http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/votanti/20180304/votantiCI

Not sure if you still need help, but in case you need here's an image that might help.

for the one not mentioned:

Votanti: Turnout reports, soon to finish once the cities come in.

Risultati: The direct results
Elenchi: Breaks down the results by region, and FPTP constituency. Currently none reporting.