Unemployment Rate

[CARLHAYDEN]

Psychologically, the key number if 10.8%.

If the unemployment rate exceeds that, all the "happy talk" in the world won't work.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Wage and salary declines are also accelerating, according to an examination of income tax deposits. One wonders how long labor conditions can remain in free-fall given that consumer spending has stabilized now for 6 full months. At some point, one imagines, there must be finally enough slack in the labor market that it begins to stabilize.

When the July numbers come out in another month, there will be another shoe dropping in the unemployment numbers, i.e. non-federal government employees.  Most state and local governments operate on a fiscal year starting on July 1st, and most require a balanced budget.  Additionally, taxpayers have made it pretty clear that they don't want increased taxes, so, there will be layoffs in the local/state goverments around the country.

[CARLHAYDEN]

If the national official unemployment rate hits 10.9%, that will be higher than at any time since world war 2!

Something else to consider.

If consumers decide to be frugal in the upcoming Christmas season (which I expect), then many retailers, suppliers and some manufacturers will be going bankrupt in January of next year.

[CARLHAYDEN]

At least OVER 9000! percent and rising! Mothers will eat their babies!
Just kidding, I think it'll probably most likely be 11%,

If the national official unemployment rate hits 10.9%, that will be higher than at any time since world war 2!

Something else to consider.

If consumers decide to be frugal in the upcoming Christmas season (which I expect), then many retailers, suppliers and some manufacturers will be going bankrupt in January of next year.

I can't imagine it getting worse than WW2.......

Uh, please reread, as I explicity was noting the unemployment rate.

Also, the unemployment rate from 1942 throught the first half of 1945 was minimal.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Holy sh**t some of you are optimistic.  Are you batsh**t insane or just hopelessly desperate?

I don't think I can give a number to how high it will go, but the U-3 will exceed 15% within the next 2 years, and I suspect it will exceed 20% at some point.  And that is the U-3.  What do you think the U-6 and the REAL rate will be, the rate that the government isn't fiddling with?

This is going to be so WONDERFUL.  It is hard not to sit and laugh at the misery that is coming.

You've got to remember that the majority of posters on this Forum (at this time) are Obamanoids who believe some of the most preposterous things.

When I noted (On November 25, 2008) that the unemployment rate would reach or exceed 7.6% when the February unemployment numbers were posted, they scoffed.

I don't think (hope) things are going to get quite as bad as you seem to believe, but, believe we are facing the worst economic calamity since the Great Depression!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Holy sh**t some of you are optimistic.  Are you batsh**t insane or just hopelessly desperate?

I don't think I can give a number to how high it will go, but the U-3 will exceed 15% within the next 2 years, and I suspect it will exceed 20% at some point.  And that is the U-3.  What do you think the U-6 and the REAL rate will be, the rate that the government isn't fiddling with?

This is going to be so WONDERFUL.  It is hard not to sit and laugh at the misery that is coming.

You've got to remember that the majority of posters on this Forum (at this time) are Obamanoids who believe some of the most preposterous things.

When I noted (On November 25, 2008) that the unemployment rate would reach or exceed 7.6% when the February unemployment numbers were posted, they scoffed.

I don't think (hope) things are going to get quite as bad as you seem to believe, but, believe we are facing the worst economic calamity since the Great Depression!

I voted for Obama, and if you look at my posts, you'll see that I have had a healthy dose of pessimism about the state of economy, so don't paint us all with such a broad brush. Yes, this is certainly the worst recession since the Great Depression, and hopefully it doesn't get significantly worse.

Anyways, I was kind of expecting the economy to start to blow up during Bush's 2nd term.

Jfern,

I want to give you credit for NOT being an Obamanoid.

However, I believe you will admit that there are a number of them on this forum.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Another "shoe" will be dropping in the employment picture on July 24th, when the minimum wage increases to $7.25 an hour.  Here's an excerpt from a Wall Street Journal article:

"The impact of the higher minimum wage will resonate even beyond that group of earners and industries. Economists say there are 2.8 million workers earning between the current federal minimum wage of $6.55 an hour and the new minimum wage of $7.25 an hour, which takes effect on July 24 and has had no signs of delay from legislators. But some estimates figure an additional seven million workers are affected because their wages are tied to the minimum and will go up accordingly.

Ryan Arfmann, who owns a Jamba Juice franchise in Idaho Falls, Idaho, is a case in point. He said he will have to boost pay to all of his 18 workers. The ones making less than $7.25 an hour will be raised to the new rate. But he said he will have to give raises to those currently earning more than $7.25 an hour because they have more experience.

As a result, he plans to cut hours for his part-time workers. "I'll definitely have to run a tighter shift each day and watch numbers like never before," said Mr. Arfmann, who estimates his business is down between 3% and 4% this year."