Italian Elections and Politics - 2023: Post-Berlusconism

[Battista Minola 1616]

you probably won't know offhand considering its size but since we're talking about family backgrounds from small towns, any info regarding Santa Ninfa, Sicily? That's where my mom's side of the family is from.

Oh I see that's one of the towns that were hit by the infamous 1968 Belice earthquake. The most well-known of them is Gibellina, which was destroyed so thoroughly that the town was rebuilt a few kilometres away; old Gibellina was then turned into a concrete monument with grooves that trace the old streets, while the new town was built to function as an open air contemporary art museum (not too sure about the effectiveness of the result, but a post-earthquake new town with fun sculptures is at least better than a post-earthquake new town with nothing). Santa Ninfa was just rebuilt in place instead. Interestingly it turns out Santa Ninfa is a longtime left-wing stronghold - largely washed away by the last decade of political trends but even in 2022 the PD did respectably there by Sicilian standards, actually even by national standards. Maybe you have Communist third cousins, who knows!

[mappix]

Abruzzo, a small region halfway between Centre and South that is marginal in most respects, is not the place to look for durable geographic patterns.

I wish this had been remembered by the incompetent leaders of the Centre-Left, who transformed this regional election into a national test and lost, too cocky after winning Sardinia by a handful of votes, calling it an overwhelming victory and totally ignoring the low turnout in Sardinia (even lower than in Abruzzo), but of course it doesn't matter when one wins, be it right or left.

Now the Centre-Left are looking forward to elections in Basilicata, which has less than half of the population of Abruzzo and an even smaller economy, yet some personality from the left has already erased the memory of the outcome in Abruzzo to say Basilicata is the real deal.

What a bleak outlook with these people. Still no leaders, babbled communication, crying fascism everywhere to cover up the lack of... everything, chasing a populist party known to be a flip-flop, no unitary and clear positions on the big geopolitical conflicts and issues, ideological and uncritical approach on topics such as immigration... the list goes on. They can only hope for help from the village idiot, Salvini.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Abruzzo, a small region halfway between Centre and South that is marginal in most respects, is not the place to look for durable geographic patterns.

I wish this had been remembered by the incompetent leaders of the Centre-Left, who transformed this regional election into a national test and lost, too cocky after winning Sardinia by a handful of votes, calling it an overwhelming victory and totally ignoring the low turnout in Sardinia (even lower than in Abruzzo), but of course it doesn't matter when one wins, be it right or left.

Now the Centre-Left are looking forward to elections in Basilicata, which has less than half of the population of Abruzzo and an even smaller economy, yet some personality from the left has already erased the memory of the outcome in Abruzzo to say Basilicata is the real deal.

What a bleak outlook with these people. Still no leaders, babbled communication, crying fascism everywhere to cover up the lack of... everything, chasing a populist party known to be a flip-flop, no unitary and clear positions on the big geopolitical conflicts and issues, ideological and uncritical approach on topics such as immigration... the list goes on. They can only hope for help from the village idiot, Salvini.

I mean, all of these elections are being treated as national tests by everyone and this is of course nothing new (even though you can argue it is irrational, and perhaps media-driven). The centre-left obviously needs positive news to get momentum because it's in the opposition and has had the lower hand for many years now, Sardinia provided that. The right doesn't quite need that because they are already dominant.

In any case I am not sure what this has to do with micro electoral geography?

[mappix]

Isn't this the thread to discuss Italian politics? Is there another specific thread for other issues?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Isn't this the thread to discuss Italian politics? Is there another specific thread for other issues?

You specifically replied to my post just to ignore what I was talking about.

[mappix]

Isn't this the thread to discuss Italian politics? Is there another specific thread for other issues?

You specifically replied to my post just to ignore what I was talking about.

As you can see from my low post count I happen to be here very seldom, so I thought that I had posted something off topic.

If I understood what you meant, I'd say that the best way to "get momentum" in the long term for the centre-left is to address the issues I had mentioned earlier, instead of relying on local elections that might backfire. Better focusing on developing a real strategy (cohesive program, leaders, pragmatic approach on issues and so on) in order to swing the voters' favour. I hope it's clear what I meant.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Between Matteo Salvini treating the Russian presidential election as a real expression of the popular will, which led Tajani to quickly contradict him and reaffirm that "the government majority is united and our position on Russia has not changed", and whatever in the world this is, the last few days have seen some truly enormous gaffes.

Related to the latter, Azione and IV have decided to support Basilicata's incumbent centre-right president Vito Bardi. All I have to say is: lol.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Last Sunday there was the most significant train strike I had ever seen in this country: just about every single train was canceled for the entire day (I imagine the government could not use the guaranteed timebands provision because Sunday is officially not a working day). Or as my friend and I like to call it after experiencing being packed like sardinhas in Lisbon a year ago, "worse than a Portuguese train strike".

[Conservatopia]

Last Sunday there was the most significant train strike I had ever seen in this country: just about every single train was canceled for the entire day (I imagine the government could not use the guaranteed timebands provision because Sunday is officially not a working day). Or as my friend and I like to call it after experiencing being packed like sardinhas in Lisbon a year ago, "worse than a Portuguese train strike".

This is baffling - I thought Mussolini made the trains run on time and now his party is in government again they don't run on time

[Battista Minola 1616]

Time to discuss Basilicata. The region will vote for its next president and regional council on the 21st and 22nd of April, two weeks from now. The incumbent Vito Bardi (FI), as I had announced, is supported by a centre-right coalition with not just the parties of government but also Azione, Italia Viva and even some Sud Chiama Nord councillor candidates. On the other side, PD/M5S/AVS/+E and other centre-left microparties are running Piero Marrese (PD), mayor of Montalbano Jonico and president of Matera province. The only minor candidate is Eustachio Follia, regional coordinator of Volt; I personally find the concept of "Volt Basilicata" quite hilarious.

I was wondering how much Basilicata's quite lucrative petroleum industry (I've seen maps that put Potenza as the richest province in Southern Italy, although this seems to be a classic case of GDP and income telling two different stories) is figuring in the campaign, but I am finding little. Either way I would like to highlight the truly massive Green-Left scores in the municipalities of Viggiano, Corleto Perticara, Guardia Perticara and Gallicchio at the last national election.

In terms of polling, a few have been published and they all have Bardi ahead by 5 to 11 percentage points. FdI would be the most voted list, followed by the Democratic Party. A tried and true script.

[Flyersfan232]

Time to discuss Basilicata. The region will vote for its next president and regional council on the 21st and 22nd of April, two weeks from now. The incumbent Vito Bardi (FI), as I had announced, is supported by a centre-right coalition with not just the parties of government but also Azione, Italia Viva and even some Sud Chiama Nord councillor candidates. On the other side, PD/M5S/AVS/+E and other centre-left microparties are running Piero Marrese (PD), mayor of Montalbano Jonico and president of Matera province. The only minor candidate is Eustachio Follia, regional coordinator of Volt; I personally find the concept of "Volt Basilicata" quite hilarious.

I was wondering how much Basilicata's quite lucrative petroleum industry (I've seen maps that put Potenza as the richest province in Southern Italy, although this seems to be a classic case of GDP and income telling two different stories) is figuring in the campaign, but I am finding little. Either way I would like to highlight the truly massive Green-Left scores in the municipalities of Viggiano, Corleto Perticara, Guardia Perticara and Gallicchio at the last national election.

In terms of polling, a few have been published and they all have Bardi ahead by 5 to 11 percentage points. FdI would be the most voted list, followed by the Democratic Party. A tried and true script.

how are the local elections shaping up to be?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Time to discuss Basilicata. The region will vote for its next president and regional council on the 21st and 22nd of April, two weeks from now. The incumbent Vito Bardi (FI), as I had announced, is supported by a centre-right coalition with not just the parties of government but also Azione, Italia Viva and even some Sud Chiama Nord councillor candidates. On the other side, PD/M5S/AVS/+E and other centre-left microparties are running Piero Marrese (PD), mayor of Montalbano Jonico and president of Matera province. The only minor candidate is Eustachio Follia, regional coordinator of Volt; I personally find the concept of "Volt Basilicata" quite hilarious.

I was wondering how much Basilicata's quite lucrative petroleum industry (I've seen maps that put Potenza as the richest province in Southern Italy, although this seems to be a classic case of GDP and income telling two different stories) is figuring in the campaign, but I am finding little. Either way I would like to highlight the truly massive Green-Left scores in the municipalities of Viggiano, Corleto Perticara, Guardia Perticara and Gallicchio at the last national election.

In terms of polling, a few have been published and they all have Bardi ahead by 5 to 11 percentage points. FdI would be the most voted list, followed by the Democratic Party. A tried and true script.

how are the local elections shaping up to be?

Candidates still to be officialized. The same complexities and internal divisions in both camps (which presumably will be mended in time for the candidacy filing date on the right and will go in as many directions as there are cities on the left). There are vote buying investigations ongoing in Turin and Bari - only Bari is scheduled to vote in 2024.

[MRCVzla]

Between today and tomorrow at evening are the regional election in Basilicata, most likely a CDX hold, turnout at 19h CET is a just 27.6%, 12 points less than 2019 one-day vote but 3 points more respect to 2013, when the election was also between two days.

In parallel, also is the deposit of electoral symbols for the European Election at the Ministery of Interior' Viminale place, also with a deadline tomorrow evening, as far 29 symbols have been presented, among then M5S with a #peace hashtag presented by Conte himself, FdI, Lega, AVS, both liberal lists (Azione and the "United States of Europe" list of +Europa/Italia Viva) with multiple logos of their partners within as well the "trendsetter" of this "too many symbols" with constant updates around the month, Cateno de Luca' Liberty list who reunites mostly populist parties (right-wing eurosceptics/anti-vaxxers or some former leghistas). Tomorrow is expected to be deposited among them the Forza Italia-Noi Moderati symbol as well the PD one, media sources say will include party leader Elly Schlein' name on it.

Schlein herself will be a "list-pusher" at PD lists in the Central and Islands constituencies, other notable candidates are Emilia-Romagna governor and Schlein' primary rival Bonaccini or MP Eleonora Evi (formerly on M5S and Europa Verde). On FI, leader Tajani will also act as "list-pusher" in all constituencies but the Islands (MEP Caterina Chinnici, until last year PD member will be the lead candidate in that constituency). Azione will feature former Parma mayor Pizzarotti who left the Presidency of +Europa for the pact of Bonino with Renzi, most of the candidates in USE list will be either Radicals (like Bonino herself) or even former/current MEPs for other countries like one Czech and a former British libdem MEP.

Links to follow the deposit of symbols:
Eligendo/Interno: https://elezionistorico.interno.gov.it/eligendohome/deposito/europee/20240609/depositati
I Simboli della Discordia blog (as well live coverage on their Facebook account): https://www.isimbolidelladiscordia.it/2024/04/elezioni-europee-2024-i-simboli-uno-per.html

Turnout data/Results page for Basilicata regional election: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/regionali/votanti/20240421/votantiRI17

[MRCVzla]

Polls have been closed in Basilicata, turnout seems below 50%.
Instant poll by Yoodata (released by regional network TeleNorba):
Vito Bardi (CDX) 53-57%
Piero Marrese (CSX+M5S) 41-45%
Eustachio Follia (Volt) 1-3%

At Viminale, 38 symbols have been deposited so far for the European election, with only 40 minutes to go, PD is the only big party missing, probably just less than 1/3 of the presented symbols will actualy make it at the ballots in June.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well there's quite a range between losing by 8 points and losing by 16. Hopefully it's closer to the former.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Turnout in Basilicata was 49.8%, a few points lower than 2019. There gap in turnout between the two provinces increased (with Matera having the higher figure, which surprises me).

Only a handful of precincts have been counted but Azione is doing shockingly well and this may not be a mere fluke given the results in the last parliamentary election.

[MRCVzla]

99.4 % of the precincts counted (678/682)
Bardi (CDX) 56.6%
Marrese (CSX) 42.2%
Follia (Volt) 1.2%

List votes
FdI 17.4%
FI 13.0%
Lega 7.8%
Azione 7.5%
Orgoglio Lucano 7.0%
UDC-DC-Popolari Uniti 2.6%
La Vera Basilicata 2.2%

PD 13.9%
Basilicata Casa Comune 11.2%
M5S 7.6%
AVS-PSI-La Basilicata Possibile 5.8%
Basilicata Unita 2.9%

Volt Basilicata 1.1%

Otherwise, the final number of electoral symbols presented for the upcoming EP election is 42 (7 less respect to 2019). At the end, PD symbol presented almost at the deadline didn't include Elly Schlein' name and put a tiny PSE/PES logo on their regular symbol. Only around 11-12 lists are guaranteed to be on the ballot due to having a parliamentary group (FdI, Lega, FI-NM, PD, M5S, AVS, Azione, USE) or being elected a MP (Cateno's Liberty) or being part of a linguistic minority group (South Tyrol's SVP or some regionalists from Aosta Valley), most likely Rizzo/Toscano's populist DSP or Michele Santoro-led Peace Earth Dignity left-wing list will collect enough signatures to run in all five constituencies. Lists specially the ones related to FdI, Lega or M5S (with ongoing primaries) should be known in the next days. Letizia Moratti is running on FI lists meanwhile in AVS among the listheaders is the imprisoned activist in Hungary Ilaria Salis or former Roma mayor Ignazio Marino.

[Andrea]

Lists specially the ones related to FdI, Lega or M5S (with ongoing primaries) should be known in the next days. Letizia Moratti is running on FI lists meanwhile in AVS among the listheaders is the imprisoned activist in Hungary Ilaria Salis or former Roma mayor Ignazio Marino.

PD lists were reported in the press, with only few adjustments expected to be made.

Nord Ovest – Cecilia Strada, Brando Benifei (incumbent), Irene Tinagli (incumbent), Alessandro Zan, Antonella Parigi, Giorgio Gori, Eleonora Evi, Pierfrancesco Maran, Elena Accossato, Davide Mattiello, Monica Romano, Emanuele Fiano, Lucia Artusi, Fulvio Centoz, Donatella Alfonso, Fabio Pizzul, Luca Jahier;

Nord Est – Stefano Bonaccini, Annalisa Corrado, Ivan Petretti, Elisabetta Gualmini (incumbent), Alessandro Zan, Alessandra Moretti (incumbent), Giuditta Pini, Silvia Panini, Antonio Mumolo, Sara Vito, Marcello Saltarelli, Andrea Zanoni;

Centro – Elly Schlein, Nicola Zingaretti, Camilla Laureti (incumbent), Marco Tarquinio, Beatrice Covassi (incumbent), Dario Nardella, Daniela Rondinelli (incumbent), Matteo Ricci, Umberto Insolera, Alessia Morani, Marco Paciotti, Antonio Mazzeo;

Sud – Lucia Annunziata, Antonio Decaro, Pina Picierno (incumbent), Sandro Ruotolo, Jasmine Cristallo, Shadi Alizadeh, Giuseppina Paterna, Annamaria Becci, Francesco Forte, Luigi Tassone, Lello Topo, Francesco Todisco;

Isole – Elly Schlein, Antonio Nicita, Nidia Tilotta, Pietro Bartolo (incumbent), Angela Quaquero, Peppino Lupo.


Therefore, incumbents (who are still in PD group) not standing again are:
Patrizia Toia (74 years old, 20 years as MEP + 10 years as MP. Even had a stint as government minister back in D'Alema-Amato years)
Giuliano Pisapia (indipendent elected in PD list last time. 76 years old. 10 years as MP + 5 years as Mayor of Milan + 5 years as MEP)
Mercedes Bresso (80 years old. 9 years as president of Turin province, then 5 years as president of Piemonte region, then 5 years of MEP, failed to be re-elected in 2019 and went back in in 2023 after one resignation)
Paolo De Castro (66 years old. 15 years as MEP + 3 years as MP and 4 years as Cabinet minister for Agricolture).
Achille Variati (71 years old. Replaced Calenda in 2022. Previously 15 years as Mayor of Vincenza).
Franco Roberti (77 years old. Former National Anti-Mafia and Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor who was one of the head of lists last time).

So, all veteran politicians who are retiring or are being told to retire. Nothing too shocking IMO.

As for the new names, I am not particularly fond of this tendency of running "celebrity" candidates like Annunziata (a TV journalist/anchorwoman).

[Battista Minola 1616]

So that was a fairly solid win for Bardi in Basilicata, a bit larger than polls had predicted. In the end Azione did not do "shockingly well" but still a strong result, and if you add Orgoglio Lucano which included Italia Viva candidates it looks like that political tendency knows how turns out votes in this region.

Intriguingly there was a very strong favourite son effect, with Marrese carrying his own province of Matera by a small margin while Bardi broke 60% in the province of Potenza. As for the oil producing towns I had talked about, there was no AVS effect and in fact they mostly voted extremely to the right, with the epicentre Viggiano almost literally block voting for Fratelli d'Italia.

[Battista Minola 1616]

So, all veteran politicians who are retiring or are being told to retire. Nothing too shocking IMO.

As for the new names, I am not particularly fond of this tendency of running "celebrity" candidates like Annunziata (a TV journalist/anchorwoman).

Certainly not up to some people's expectations that Schlein was going to rottamare the PD more thoroughly. For instance Zinneke at the start of this thread had suggested she might boot out Benifei or Picierno.

I am not a fan of that tendency either, a more obnoxious example of which is Lega considering running one-hit wonder of opposition to political correctness Roberto Vannacci (who like me and Benifei was born in La Spezia... hilarious).

[Andrea]

M5S lists for European elections:
https://www.movimento5stelle.eu/le-nostre-liste-per-le-europee/

Out of the 14 M5S MEPs elected in 2019, only 5* are still with them now....
2 of them are ending the second term (and M5S internal rules don't allow a third term without exceptional exemptions), that leaves 3 incumbents re-standing.

North West: incumbent Maria Angela Danzì leads the list followed by journalist Gaetano Pedullà (who was the members' vote in NW).
North East: incumbent Sabrina Pignedoli leads the list followed by Ugo Biggeri (Co-founder of Banca Etica) and Martina Pluda (an animal welfare activist). All three indicated by the Conte without passing through membership selection.
Centre: former football player Carolina Morace leads the list. Dario Tamburrano (MEP in 2014-19 term, not re-elected 5 years ago) won members' selection and is second in the list.
South: Pasquale Tridico (former president of INPS/ Italian Institute for Social Security) at the top followed by Valentina Palmisano (former MP. Won the membership vote), incumbent MEP Mario Furore and  Maurizio Sibilio (deputy rector of Salerno University).
Islands:  Giuseppe Antoci and Cinzia Pilo. Both indicated by Conte.

Anyway, we have open lists...so the order in the list is not so crucial. However, better being towards the top...

* edit: actually 4 of the original 14 because their current 5th MEP entered the EU Parliament in 2022 after the resignation of the originally elected MEP who became MP for Green/Left (and she has now defected to PD).

[Andrea]

Lists specially the ones related to FdI, Lega or M5S (with ongoing primaries) should be known in the next days. Letizia Moratti is running on FI lists meanwhile in AVS among the listheaders is the imprisoned activist in Hungary Ilaria Salis or former Roma mayor Ignazio Marino.

PD lists were reported in the press, with only few adjustments expected to be made.


Therefore, incumbents (who are still in PD group) not standing again are:
Patrizia Toia (74 years old, 20 years as MEP + 10 years as MP. Even had a stint as government minister back in D'Alema-Amato years)

So, all veteran politicians who are retiring or are being told to retire. Nothing too shocking IMO.

Toia was kept in the end. Somewhere in the middle of NW list.

Final lists from all main parties

North West: https://it.euronews.com/2024/05/01/candidati-circoscrizione-nord-ovest-elezioni-europee-2024-liste-fdi-pd-avs-m5s-lega-fi-azi
North East: https://it.euronews.com/2024/05/01/candidati-circoscrizione-nord-est-elezioni-europee-2024-liste-fdi-pd-avs-m5s-lega-fi-azion
Centre: https://it.euronews.com/2024/05/01/candidati-circoscrizione-centro-elezioni-europee-2024-liste-fdi-pd-avs-m5s-lega-fi-azione
South: https://it.euronews.com/2024/05/01/candidati-circoscrizione-sud-elezioni-europee-2024-liste-fdi-pd-avs-m5s-lega-fi-azione
Islands: https://it.euronews.com/2024/05/01/candidati-circoscrizione-isole-elezioni-europee-2024-liste-fdi-pd-avs-m5s-lega-fi-azione

[Battista Minola 1616]

My very regional president Giovanni Toti was arrested yesterday and is now under home detention. He is accused of corruption and specifically trading campaign funds for various kinds of favours (sponsorships, contracts etc.) as well as some form of mafia involvement. Others in his close circle have been arrested too, together with entrepreneurs like Aldo Spinelli, former president of Genoa FC.

Unclear how this will develop except that for now Toti's deputy Alessandro Piana is acting president.