2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[LimoLiberal]

Worrying numbers for Democrats in North Carolina detailed in this thread.

https://twitter.com/markjstephenson/status/1311301149295874051

Democrats lead in requests and returned, but of the ballots returned by Republicans, 7% are first-time voters. Just 5% of the ballots returned by Democrats are the same.

WWC surge?

[LimoLiberal]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

I'm looking at turnout too.  I am curious what kind of turnout we will get in three areas: South Florida, the Panhandle, and Orange County + surrounding counties. 

Yup agreed - Alachua (Gainesville) big college area looks okay wit the % for Biden, the panhandle is still registered as dem's so take that with a grain of salt most of those people haven't changed their registrations. I'll be curious on the margins and votes in Orange and Seminole too. 138k dem advantage today is only a slight increase, I can see once orange + miami start coming in it can be almost ~200k advantage but still far from where dems need to be in early voting. Great news for a close race as a republican.

buddy this is not how this works lol

Democrats, Republicans, and NPA(no party affiliated)/3rd Party voters requested absentee ballots in the state of Florida. The breakdown of those requests was 46-31-23 Democrat-Republican-Other.

As counties have mailed out those ballots in the past week almost 500,000 have already been returned.

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1312388572830367744

Democrats have returned their ballots at a higher rate than Republicans, beyond their initial advantage in requests. This represents a shift from previous years. All this is stated in the tweet above.

If any importance is afforded to these early statistics Democrats look to be in great shape. Now I don't think these early numbers mean much other than people on both sides are eager to vote. But "Great news for a close race as a Republican" is hilariously wrong. You cannot ignore the 23% of VBM requests that come from voters not affiliated with the two major parties. I guarantee you that those voters favor Joe Biden as a whole because of the Democratic lean of the early vote in general, and possibly as a whole.

You say "still far from where Dems need to be in early voting". My question to you is where should Democrats "be" in early voting at this point, beyond outstripping Republicans in requests and outstripping Republicans even further in return rate?

[LimoLiberal]

If I had to guess, the early vote modeling people are freaking about in Michigan and Wisconsin is crudely putting overall voter registration stats on the requested/returned ballots, most likely by age cohort or race. This would be very misleading. We know that Democratic voters are way more inclined to use absentee ballots than Republicans this year and vice versa. Older voters are still dominating in requests and returns, and their overall registration stats may be Republican-leaning, but we know for sure that those older voters are disproportionately Democratic because they've chosen to take absentee ballots.

Just look at this stat from tonight's Glengariff poll of Michigan:

Among those that have already cast their ballot, Joe Biden holds a 60-point lead of 74.6%-14.1%.

Even considering the margin of error and the possibility of Biden winning significant chunks of Independents and Republicans that number is simply implausible with NBC's model.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/DavidPepper/status/1313501402963021826

talk to me when dems hit 40k in this county.

it's the first day lol

[LimoLiberal]

At least one of the 700,000+ Virginia early votes is for Biden  

I voted No on the redistricting amendment.

[LimoLiberal]

At least one of the 700,000+ Virginia early votes is for Biden  

I also voted NO on the redistricting amendment.

Are outside groups advertising to try and defeat that monstrosity amendment?

At least in Arlington, there's a highly organized campaign to defeat it. Signs went up last week on the medians that say "Vote No on 1. Stop Gerrymandering.". When I went to vote today there were at least three different volunteers with signs telling people to vote No with informational flyers to hand out. The Arlington Democratic Committee endorsed a No vote and their sample ballot (which I would estimate 50-60% of Arlington voters take) reflects that. I wrote something in the redistricting thread about how I think there's a pretty good chance it goes down.

[LimoLiberal]

Pretty incredible. 5% of 2016 turnout in Harris County in an 8-hour span 20 days before Election Day.

[LimoLiberal]

Constantly vacillating between thinking the massive Democratic enthusiasm in early voting is a great sign for November and thinking that it doesn't really tell us anything we don't already know because of the expected partisan disparity in vote method. Whatever the case, nothing looks bad for Democrats so far and that is good in itself.

[LimoLiberal]

FWIW I’m in a line in fairfax.  The gop is going through the line giving a sample ballot.  90%+ have rejected it.  Very high proportion getting the dem one (taking a photo).  This is the most republican leaning area of Fairfax...

There goes the redistricting amendment...

[LimoLiberal]

Ignore Target Smart. Ignore TargetSmart. Ignore TargetSmart.

[LimoLiberal]

I'm laughing about how one user made one post randomly declaring a 600K lead in Florida was the
the tipping point and now it's a tenet of the Atlas holy book.

[LimoLiberal]

Ignore TargetSmart. Ignore TargetSmart. Ignore TargetSmart.

It should be banned from this thread.

[LimoLiberal]

So combining VBM and early in-person did the Republicans make up ground in Florida today?