COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1247598876472872960

WTF? That's a very high number.

It could be even worse, or somewhat better.  There's a wide confidence interval (95% CI 3.8–8.9) in their calculations.

Still, an R0 of 5+ would mean almost instantaneous spread to everyone. Either the vast majority of cases are very mild or asymptomatic and just haven't been detected (and the curve is flattening not because of lockdowns but because the virus is reaching saturation) or that figure is way, way off. You wouldn't be able to control a disease like that with soft lockdowns where people were still going to the grocery store.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

IHME updated their model and now it includes EU as well. They project 152,000 will die in EU (first wave) of which 66,000 in UK. Obviously, a lot of assumptions, high uncertainty and so on.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its

So England, who has about 6,000 deaths so far, will ultimately see 10x as many, but Italy, who has seen 17,000 deaths, will only see about 3,000 more?  I know those two countries are still on different sides of the curve, but at least one of those number is waaaay off (and most likely, both are very wrong).

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/1247638685652262912

i don't see a 2nd wave
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/

Yup,

I have seen more tweets about a second wave than new cases in Hong Kong, South Korea and China.

Singapore is on the increase, and Japan has a small virus outbreak which is not substantial yet, but people are forgetting these countries are well on top of their Corona-virus plans to begin with. So they can initiate much tighter restrictions than Western countries.

With such low case numbers, their medical facilities have not (besides China) been overwhelmed, so their thinking is much clearer for planning.

Proper isolation of infected cases from the populous is the real way to nip these outbreaks at the bud.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/6 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | Δ Change: ↑6.64% | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | Δ Change: ↑5.07% | Σ Increase: ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5:

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7 (Today):

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Deaths now stand at 1,942

[emailking]

U.S Deaths today are at 1,821

Holy crap...

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

This is within the range predicted. It's expected to be pretty bad for the next 21 days. How bad depends on what we do personally with our interactions, how hospitals can treat the infected, and what kind of peak or plateau we have.

The peak or plateau depends on the deaths, not vice versa.

[Dr. Arch]

Deaths now stand at 1,942

Updated. Any positive indications for today were wiped out with the last dump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/joshgerstein/status/1247682413687222272

I believe this is the second trial to be halted because of adverse side effects.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Well there goes the flattening the curve theory

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

And we have lost John Prine

https://twitter.com/NYTObits/status/1247694693024116741?s=19

One of the nine toughest moments of my life.

[HillGoose]

The CCP must be held responsible for the massive amounts of deaths, time to finally light up the Chinese gov.

[brucejoel99]

And we have lost John Prine

https://twitter.com/NYTObits/status/1247694693024116741?s=19

One of the nine toughest moments of my life.

Brilliant songwriter. RIP.

[Tintrlvr]

NYC vs. the rest of the country (including SF which also has high public transit commuting, dense housing, and a large homeless population and is rather amazingly doing fine) makes me wonder if closing schools might be the single most important intervention?  Japan closed schools very early and while they are having some issues now (2nd wave?), they seem to be doing very well vs. the free world average.  

One relevant point to consider when talking about density is that the highest concentrations in the NY area are not in NYC on a per capita basis, but rather in Westchester and Rockland Counties north of the city, followed by Nassau County, and only then by the Bronx and Queens. Even within the city, the per capita rate doesn't follow density; Manhattan is by far the densest borough but has the lowest per capita rate of the five boroughs and is lower than multiple suburban counties (those mentioned above and also Orange and Suffolk Counties and Bergen County, NJ, which all also have higher per capita rates than Brooklyn).

This all suggests that NYC's severe outbreak relative to other cities is mostly down to bad luck (perhaps some early super-spreader cases) rather than density.

Just to restate this point: a map, cases per capita in the NYC area by county. (I believe the figures are cases per 10,000.) This is as of Sunday.

It's a suburban virus more than anything.

[Grassroots]

Well there goes the flattening the curve theory

What are you talking about.

[GP270watch]

U.S Deaths today are at 1,821

Holy crap...

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

This is within the range predicted. It's expected to be pretty bad for the next 21 days. How bad depends on what we do personally with our interactions, how hospitals can treat the infected, and what kind of peak or plateau we have.

The peak or plateau depends on the deaths, not vice versa.

We're talking about deaths, so what's you point? The modeling for when deaths will peak is just an estimate. The day of maximum deaths is also not always followed by a steady drop in daily deaths, it can basically level out for days or weeks before the drop in daily deaths starts dropping. This looks like the case in Iran.

The model uses the time from implementation of social distancing measures to the peak of deaths in locations where this peak has already been reached or passed in order to model this relationship for locations where daily deaths have not yet reached their maximum.

[DINGO Joe]

And we have lost John Prine

https://twitter.com/NYTObits/status/1247694693024116741?s=19

One of the nine toughest moments of my life.

Yeah, super depressing.  Another musical genius, Hal Willner passed away today.  I'm on mobile and too tired to provide a link but he put together some amazing musical projects.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

NYC vs. the rest of the country (including SF which also has high public transit commuting, dense housing, and a large homeless population and is rather amazingly doing fine) makes me wonder if closing schools might be the single most important intervention?  Japan closed schools very early and while they are having some issues now (2nd wave?), they seem to be doing very well vs. the free world average.  

One relevant point to consider when talking about density is that the highest concentrations in the NY area are not in NYC on a per capita basis, but rather in Westchester and Rockland Counties north of the city, followed by Nassau County, and only then by the Bronx and Queens. Even within the city, the per capita rate doesn't follow density; Manhattan is by far the densest borough but has the lowest per capita rate of the five boroughs and is lower than multiple suburban counties (those mentioned above and also Orange and Suffolk Counties and Bergen County, NJ, which all also have higher per capita rates than Brooklyn).

This all suggests that NYC's severe outbreak relative to other cities is mostly down to bad luck (perhaps some early super-spreader cases) rather than density.

Just to restate this point: a map, cases per capita in the NYC area by county. (I believe the figures are cases per 10,000.) This is as of Sunday.

It's a suburban virus more than anything.

Westchester was the start of the outbreak. The only other cities I know this for sure to be the case we're Philadelphia and Memphis. Michigan, Louisiana and Los Angeles show the opposite pattern. I really don't think there are conclusions on density.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The numbers of reported new cases and deaths appear to be the worst on Tuesdays across the board.  It's the flipside of the numbers going down every Sunday.  

We should be comparing week-to-week rather than day-to-day.

Week-to-week, new deaths have about doubled in the US this week, while new cases have risen about 50%.  Meanwhile, week-to-week new deaths and cases have fallen 20-25% in Italy and Spain.

[Sbane]

Trump has direct money interests in promoting Hydroxychloroquine.   Surprising no one.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-stake-company-hydroxychloroquine_n_5e8c41d7c5b6e1d10a696280

President Donald Trump reportedly owns a stake in a company that produces hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malaria drug he has repeatedly touted as a coronavirus treatment even though his experts say there’s no strong evidence it works.

Trump “has a small personal financial interest” in Sanofi, the French drugmaker that makes Plaquenil, the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine, The New York Times reported Monday.

Its going to be the generic versions of the drug which will move fast. We are not even bothering with getting the brand since insurance will likely not pay for it and people want the generic. And the generic is what is being mass produced right now in anticipation of an increase in demand.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest growth numbers from Europe and USA looking much better.

USA appears to have turned the corner. Provided they don't get another surge in new cases, it looks as though the growth in 'Active Cases' is coming down on a 3 point weighted average.

All on the same scale, we have:



UK has a longer flatter curve, but continues to grow slowly.




France has one of the higher growth rates, but they also report data in lumps which make it harder to assess, both in terms of new cases and recoveries.

Big surge in new cases today.

(no adjustment to recoveries - will add over the next week)




Germany enjoys a low mortality rate, but still has significant case numbers comparable to Italy and Spain. The low mortality rate has been attributed to the quality of the healthcare system.

(added 18,000 recoveries)




Spain appears to be past the worst of the pandemic and is now on the downward slope. Surprisingly similar curve to Germany, but with a higher mortality rate.

(added 30,000 recoveries)




Italy looks almost identical to Spain, just half a week earlier. Not seeing any recoveries coming through in the data matching the new cases 2-3 weeks previous.

(added 60,000 recoveries)




USA has started to slow in growth numbers over the last 3 days, and has hopefully turned the corner. Mike Pence, a self-confessed non-scientist is confident the US has turned a corner from the data he is looking at.

The US does not release much data in the way of recoveries, so no adjustments can be made until we see that data.

Separating out these growth curves, and looking at the together, we have:



Hopefully the US will drop rapidly now in terms of growth in cases.

The decision in the USA to ascertain a time to restart society and the economy in the blistering scale of this pandemic is particularly confronting.

The USA (and Europe) have to jointly ride the lightning between keeping 1% of the population healthy who would otherwise die from this disease and keeping their economy and society functional for the remaining 99%.

Not an easy situation to be confronted with.

[emailking]

U.S Deaths today are at 1,821

Holy crap...

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

This is within the range predicted. It's expected to be pretty bad for the next 21 days. How bad depends on what we do personally with our interactions, how hospitals can treat the infected, and what kind of peak or plateau we have.

The peak or plateau depends on the deaths, not vice versa.

We're talking about deaths, so what's you point?

Interactions and hospitals are causes of the deaths. Peak & plateau are descriptions of the deaths, not causes.

[GP270watch]

U.S Deaths today are at 1,821

Holy crap...

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

This is within the range predicted. It's expected to be pretty bad for the next 21 days. How bad depends on what we do personally with our interactions, how hospitals can treat the infected, and what kind of peak or plateau we have.

The peak or plateau depends on the deaths, not vice versa.

We're talking about deaths, so what's you point?

Interactions and hospitals are causes of the deaths. Peak & plateau are descriptions of the deaths, not causes.

Context matters dude, several posters were alarmed about the high death total. I was responding about the deaths projected in the modeling and how many days going forward people can expect to see figures that shock them, wasn't that clear?

 

[emailking]

Sorry.

[GP270watch]

Sorry.

I'm sorry if I wasn't clear. Not trying to confuse anybody.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1247732044903350272