I'm gonna say yes.
1) Destroys the bandwagon effect: Trump being a winner who could conquer any challenge was a major part of his appeal. This has now been shattered.
2) Disappearing voters: Nobody knows exactly what happened tonight. Most likely is that a lot of Trump voters who said they were going to turn out actually didn't. Another possibility is that these people never supported him to begin with, and were either doing so "ironically" or just as a placeholder protest vote until they seriously considered their other options. This means his dominance everywhere could be just a facade.
3) Polling:A good part of Trump's momentum was his poll numbers, almost always steadily climbing, which he constantly bragged about. He's almost certainly going to fall after this. What will he brag about then? In addition to that, it's very possible pollsters may "overcorrect", and even start filtering out Trump voters who actually will vote just to avoid making the huge blunders they did in Iowa. This will further exacerbate a negative feedback loop for Trump's polling, so it kind of goes hand in hand with #1.
4) Debate: Aside from Trump's New York values moment, his best zingers in the debates usually had to do with how well each candidate was doing. "Jeb, I'm at 40, you're at 4. etc." But what's he going to say now? "Marco, I got 24, you got 23?" Yeah, I doubt it. And it opens the door for Cruz to say "well congratulations on 24 Donald, but I got 28! *cue audience applause*"
5) The Empire (Punditry) Strikes Back: The media, particularly the professional pundits, were infuriated and humiliated when Trump consistently defied their conventional wisdom and didn't collapse the dozen times they predicted he would. They'll likely see this as an opportunity to stick the knife in deep and get their revenge, along with being able to say: "See, he did collapse eventually! We were right!" These are also the same people in the tank for Rubio, who are NO DOUBT going to declare Rubio the winner of the debate, Trump the loser, and cherrypick polls to fit the Trump is doomed narrative.
So what do you think Atlas?
All good points and you haven't even mentioned the single worst thing for Trump last night: the resurgence of Marco Rubio. Had Trump only lost to Cruz it would have been sort of OK, but pulling almost even with Rubio is terrible. If Rubio can now emerge as the establishment consensus candidate, then that is terrible news for both Trump and Cruz.
On the positive side for Trump is the fact that he didn't have a public meltdown over the loss. Infact, his speech was perfectly nice.
I don't and have never believed that Cruz can win the nomination. But the battle of the establishment candidates will be VERY interesting now. Will they infact consolidate around Rubio, or will someone else who does well in New Hampshire challenge him, keeping the path open for Trump?
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