2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Tekken_Guy]

Wow! Still some chance of salvaging Florida?

No way. Biden's ceiling in Florida is one vote less than whatever Trump's total is.

Reminds me of the "Running Man" from Zelda. He always beats you by exactly one second.

[Tekken_Guy]

Notice they didn't send Obama to North Carolina today, where the black vote is even more determinative.  I think that's because the black vote is turning out big there already. 

True, but it probably won't hurt to send him there as well.

[Tekken_Guy]

Obama's hurricane Sandy response in NJ probably helped him in FL as well because they are so used to hurricanes and he looked like a good leader working with Christie.

Honestly we mostly just thought it was kinda funny that everyone up there was freaking out over a Cat 1.

Speaking as a Jerseyite, it was not just "a Cat 1". Sandy was a massive hurricane/nor'easter hybrid.

[Tekken_Guy]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

Relying on Miami to save you as a Republican is probably not a great spot to be in.  I am doubtful that Miami hispanics are going to flip to Trump by enough of a margin to make up for even mild flips among seniors elsewhere.  Pinellas and Sarasota are populated counties.

Quite a few things to note.

The numbers that we've been seeing in St. Pete's district polls is not just much worse than in 2016, but also considerably worse than what Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott got in 2018. To offset that, Trump doesn't just need to do better in Miami-Dade, but has to significantly improve even on DeSantis/Scott numbers. And the recent poll in rural HD55 show that while he has held on better, he hasn't gained any support either.

[Tekken_Guy]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

Relying on Miami to save you as a Republican is probably not a great spot to be in.  I am doubtful that Miami hispanics are going to flip to Trump by enough of a margin to make up for even mild flips among seniors elsewhere.  Pinellas and Sarasota are populated counties.

Quite a few things to note.

The numbers that we've been seeing in St. Pete's district polls is not just much worse than in 2016, but also considerably worse than what Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott got in 2018. To offset that, Trump doesn't just need to do better in Miami-Dade, but has to significantly improve even on DeSantis/Scott numbers. And the recent poll in rural HD55 show that while he has held on better, he hasn't gained any support either.

I wouldn't read into SPP at all considering their numbers appear to be totally disconnected from the actual early vote we're seeing. They also overestimated Nelson in 2018.

Early vote is not the be-all end-all. Republicans could be cannibalizing their Election Day vote. There may be a lot of "Biden Republicans", mostly seniors and suburbanites. The NPA vote should be something to watch.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't get why folks are acting like Biden being the underdog in FL is a reason to freak out.  It's not even the only chance for an election night knock out blow, much less a state Biden needs to win.  Honestly, Trump probably is favored there, but Florida is basically the only state where the numbers aren't looking great for Biden.

2018 really should have set off alarm bells in the Florida Democratic party. I believe their best strategy going forward is to focus on the rest of the state. Non-MD Florida voted Trump by about 5 points in 2016. Scott and DeSantis only won it by 2. If Biden can narrow it down to like a point, he'll be in a good position to win.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1323044639495147520
Early voting has concluded in NYC. First time in a presidential election.

(NOTE: These numbers don't include absentee/mail-in ballots)

Not sure how many absentees are expected but this is pretty pathetic turnout compared to the rest of the country's early voting. NY election administration really needs a total overhaul.

Well at least Biden doesn’t have to worry about losing New York. Imagine if this screws over Max Rose, though.