New York Siena : Biden +7

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They had Biden +21% just last month though  … there was really a 12% swing in one month ?

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Siena historically has a good record within the state of New York, right? Although I agree that their polls this year have not been very consistent.

I also agree with jaichind that this is probably not a good poll for Trump. Many national cross-tab patterns are suggestive of a situation where Republican gains are concentrated in the largest American megacities, which are mostly not found in competitive states. NYC is the most megacity of them all and it would make sense for patterns flowing from density or recent immigrant background to hit it harder than other places.

Can we trash this notion that “this poll is bad for Trump”? NY has not had an overwhelming influence on the popular vote since the 1940s. Unless Trump outright wins the state, the NY results wont swing the national vote by 1% (if even that). If we get polls with Trump within 10% in California and over 15% in Texas, then this argument can arise  

If your argument is that, “this NY poll means there is a similar swing in Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco too” … the issue is that NY is facing a more vicious anti-Democrat backlash because of the migrant crisis than those other cities are facing, and Zeldin’s performance gives Repubs a groundwork for a swing . It’s possible that NY swings right while those other cities stay as they are

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Trump getting 37% in New York is believable, that's the same percentage he got in 2020.

Would people knock it off with this?

He got 38% last time where 99% of all NY voters went for either Biden or Trump. He has 37% in this poll where Biden and Trump are getting 83% of the vote altogether. That means his 37% in this poll is far more than the 38% that he got last time

To say, “well Trump is at the same percentage as he got last time. He hasn’t improved!!!”  .. that implies that literally all of the 17% remainder will break for Biden (and I mean literally in its correct usage).. But logically, Trump is going to get some of them. Say they break 70-30% in Biden’s favor. That puts Biden at 57% vs Trump’s 42%

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Ok but this forum makes a huge deal about getting over 50% in a poll. And if you can just take chunks of the undecided and assign them out then its not that important, you just need to be in the lead.

. I chose 70-30% as a hypothetical break for the undecideds strictly because that would be an extremely favorable outcome for Biden. The point is that even if Biden kills it with the remaining undecideds, he still performs worse in this state than he did last time, and the only way Trump would stay at 37-38% is if he gets literally 0% of the undecideds (which is impossible)