New York Siena : Biden +7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yikes! Not good for Biden

I disagree.  This is not good for Trump.  For Trump and Biden to be roughly tied nationally but Biden is only up by 7 in NY means that Trump is likely behind in swing states.

Lol with Gillibrand Biden will win 60/40

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gillibrand is on the ballot and easily carry Biden to a 60/40 lead, Presley is down by 1 and Beshesr if both win Rs aren't winning Eday no matter how many polls Redban enters that show Trump ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New York is going 60/40 D with Gillibrand the End

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yikes! Not good for Biden

I disagree.  This is not good for Trump.  For Trump and Biden to be roughly tied nationally but Biden is only up by 7 in NY means that Trump is likely behind in swing states.

I don’t see a world where NY swings dramatically to the right but swing states don’t. Ultimately, I think NY will see a modest swing to Trump but nothing too wild.

Happened in 2022

I was about to tell you "welcome to Atlas" because I've never seen you before but I noticed you have over 2k posts lol

anyway, while it happened in 2022 I don't expect it to happen in 2024 because of the fact that Trump will bring out lower propensity working class voters that 2022 Republicans did not. Also I don't expect Trump to get Lee Zeldin's performance, but he may emulate Joe Pinion's performance against Chuck Schumer. At the same time, his Georgia performance will likely be more similar to 2022 election denier Burt Jones's, his Wisconsin performance will likely be more similar to Ron Johnson's 2022 performance except he'll do even better in the driftless and northwestern WI, his PA performance will far outperform Mehmet Oz's in Western and Northeastern PA and may even outperform Oz a bit in SEPA. In Nevada he'll have more credibility with noncollege hispanic and white voters than Adam Laxalt did, and I expect him to outperform Lombardo. Same with AZ - and I think he'll utilize the early voting system to a much larger extent than 2022 AZ Repubs did. Michigan will be the cherry on top - polling indicates he's currently doing better there than he did in 2016, and he's definitely very different from Tudor Dixon (much more moderate on abortion, more cred with white working class voters).

All in all, while the swing in New York will be more intense than the swings in battleground states, it is very reasonable to expect the disparity in swing between NY and the battlegrounds to be much less severe than it was in 2022.

Everyone knows it's Covid fatigue and Voters agree with D's on all issues

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump could win big with the third parties similar to Clinton 92. This election may not be that close.

Not

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also Biden will obviously win NY, but if he's struggling to clear a 15% margin then house Rs like Lawler are probably on track to win again.

You believe this poll 400 days from Eday lol, campaign doesn't begin until both Trump and Biden both clinch the nomination it's a 303 map anyways


Biden will win CA, NY, IL 61/38 in a 303 map scenario, the question is split voting can ALLRED win while Brown, Tester win and Manchin loses

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls are trying to pump up Trump numbers by RFK and he isn't even on the ballot in every state just like No party's Label is only in AZ and CO that's why, RFK and DeSantis are joke candidates.

RFK will end up dropping his no party's Label campaign eventually

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gillibrand is on the ballot Trump doesn't even know whom Redban is, I volunteered for Obama and Biden he directed me to attend his inauguration in 20 he will invite me again because Biden not Trump is gonna win NY