New York Siena : Biden +7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gillibrand is on the ballot and easily carry Biden to a 60/40 lead, Presley is down by 1 and Beshesr if both win Rs aren't winning Eday no matter how many polls Redban enters that show Trump ahead

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I can see Trump getting 37-39% in NY. I can't see him breaking 40%.

[Comrade Funk]

I'll say it again - Biden needs to drop out. His position has only worsened and he barely won last time.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I can see Trump getting 37-39% in NY. I can't see him breaking 40%.

Joe Pinion was some rando who didn't campaign and got 43% against Chuck Schumer in 2022. I think it's entirely possible for Trump to crack 40%, although a single digit race seems unlikely.

[Devils30]

http://

Urban immigrant enclaves can flip politically on a dime. What matters in Queens and Brooklyn is probably the most dissimilar to the rest of the US. I doubt the result will be this close but there’s a scenario where the diversity of NYC could often start working against Democrats instead of for them.

I think it isn't happening evenly in every metropolitan area, with the two greatest predictors being that more educated metropolitan areas (like Boston and San Francisco) and those with less recent immigrant background are lagging, but I don't think it's only NYC which is seeing a backlash. In the context of the national environment, I think Democrats did quite poorly in both the LA and Chicago areas in 2022.

(I think this is also associated with a pretty tight pattern where areas whose population is declining start trending Republican -- it's been pretty widely reported that NYC, LA, and Chicago are all losing population. I think this is not as true for the Bay Area.)

Urban immigrant enclaves certainly do not flip "on a dime", but they can have their own trends dissociated from national ones based on parochial issues they care about.

Sections of Queens might be the Starr County, TX of 2024.

Nah Miami-Dade is a more accurate comparison given that NYC is urban. I could see places like Washington County, GA being the starr county though.

That county has literally been single digits either way every year in the 21st century. It is as inelastic as it gets, good try though.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Urban immigrant enclaves can flip politically on a dime. What matters in Queens and Brooklyn is probably the most dissimilar to the rest of the US. I doubt the result will be this close but there’s a scenario where the diversity of NYC could often start working against Democrats instead of for them.

I think it isn't happening evenly in every metropolitan area, with the two greatest predictors being that more educated metropolitan areas (like Boston and San Francisco) and those with less recent immigrant background are lagging, but I don't think it's only NYC which is seeing a backlash. In the context of the national environment, I think Democrats did quite poorly in both the LA and Chicago areas in 2022.

(I think this is also associated with a pretty tight pattern where areas whose population is declining start trending Republican -- it's been pretty widely reported that NYC, LA, and Chicago are all losing population. I think this is not as true for the Bay Area.)

Urban immigrant enclaves certainly do not flip "on a dime", but they can have their own trends dissociated from national ones based on parochial issues they care about.

Sections of Queens might be the Starr County, TX of 2024.

Nah Miami-Dade is a more accurate comparison given that NYC is urban. I could see places like Washington County, GA being the starr county though.

That county has literally been single digits either way every year in the 21st century. It is as inelastic as it gets, good try though.

Starr was D +60 for a long time until it wasn’t.

[Respect and Compassion]

This definitely corroborates my firsthand real life experiences in noticing the shifts in sentiment since three years ago.

An NYC acquaintance of mine who used to post in this forum before getting banned is proud that New York is seeing a massive swing, I told him that Trump will still lose NYC by a decent amount but he seems to think that being behind by only 29 points in NYC according to Siena is a huge win...lol

well, I guess it does suggest a popular vote win..and I definitely do not expect NYC to swing massively right while the swing states don't swing enough (which is what happened in 2022). This is because it'll be a Presidential race as opposed to what it's like in midterms, where state-by-state variations in funding and local & statewide machine dynamics matter much more

[Yellowhammer]

Yikes! Not good for Biden

I disagree.  This is not good for Trump.  For Trump and Biden to be roughly tied nationally but Biden is only up by 7 in NY means that Trump is likely behind in swing states.

I don’t see a world where NY swings dramatically to the right but swing states don’t. Ultimately, I think NY will see a modest swing to Trump but nothing too wild.

Happened in 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New York is going 60/40 D with Gillibrand the End

[Respect and Compassion]

Yikes! Not good for Biden

I disagree.  This is not good for Trump.  For Trump and Biden to be roughly tied nationally but Biden is only up by 7 in NY means that Trump is likely behind in swing states.

I don’t see a world where NY swings dramatically to the right but swing states don’t. Ultimately, I think NY will see a modest swing to Trump but nothing too wild.

Happened in 2022

I was about to tell you "welcome to Atlas" because I've never seen you before but I noticed you have over 2k posts lol

anyway, while it happened in 2022 I don't expect it to happen in 2024 because of the fact that Trump will bring out lower propensity working class voters that 2022 Republicans did not. Also I don't expect Trump to get Lee Zeldin's performance, but he may emulate Joe Pinion's performance against Chuck Schumer. At the same time, his Georgia performance will likely be more similar to 2022 election denier Burt Jones's, his Wisconsin performance will likely be more similar to Ron Johnson's 2022 performance except he'll do even better in the driftless and northwestern WI, his PA performance will far outperform Mehmet Oz's in Western and Northeastern PA and may even outperform Oz a bit in SEPA. In Nevada he'll have more credibility with noncollege hispanic and white voters than Adam Laxalt did, and I expect him to outperform Lombardo. Same with AZ - and I think he'll utilize the early voting system to a much larger extent than 2022 AZ Repubs did. Michigan will be the cherry on top - polling indicates he's currently doing better there than he did in 2016, and he's definitely very different from Tudor Dixon (much more moderate on abortion, more cred with white working class voters).

All in all, while the swing in New York will be more intense than the swings in battleground states, it is very reasonable to expect the disparity in swing between NY and the battlegrounds to be much less severe than it was in 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yikes! Not good for Biden

I disagree.  This is not good for Trump.  For Trump and Biden to be roughly tied nationally but Biden is only up by 7 in NY means that Trump is likely behind in swing states.

I don’t see a world where NY swings dramatically to the right but swing states don’t. Ultimately, I think NY will see a modest swing to Trump but nothing too wild.

Happened in 2022

I was about to tell you "welcome to Atlas" because I've never seen you before but I noticed you have over 2k posts lol

anyway, while it happened in 2022 I don't expect it to happen in 2024 because of the fact that Trump will bring out lower propensity working class voters that 2022 Republicans did not. Also I don't expect Trump to get Lee Zeldin's performance, but he may emulate Joe Pinion's performance against Chuck Schumer. At the same time, his Georgia performance will likely be more similar to 2022 election denier Burt Jones's, his Wisconsin performance will likely be more similar to Ron Johnson's 2022 performance except he'll do even better in the driftless and northwestern WI, his PA performance will far outperform Mehmet Oz's in Western and Northeastern PA and may even outperform Oz a bit in SEPA. In Nevada he'll have more credibility with noncollege hispanic and white voters than Adam Laxalt did, and I expect him to outperform Lombardo. Same with AZ - and I think he'll utilize the early voting system to a much larger extent than 2022 AZ Repubs did. Michigan will be the cherry on top - polling indicates he's currently doing better there than he did in 2016, and he's definitely very different from Tudor Dixon (much more moderate on abortion, more cred with white working class voters).

All in all, while the swing in New York will be more intense than the swings in battleground states, it is very reasonable to expect the disparity in swing between NY and the battlegrounds to be much less severe than it was in 2022.

Everyone knows it's Covid fatigue and Voters agree with D's on all issues

[Devils30]

Yikes! Not good for Biden

I disagree.  This is not good for Trump.  For Trump and Biden to be roughly tied nationally but Biden is only up by 7 in NY means that Trump is likely behind in swing states.

I don’t see a world where NY swings dramatically to the right but swing states don’t. Ultimately, I think NY will see a modest swing to Trump but nothing too wild.

Happened in 2022

I was about to tell you "welcome to Atlas" because I've never seen you before but I noticed you have over 2k posts lol

anyway, while it happened in 2022 I don't expect it to happen in 2024 because of the fact that Trump will bring out lower propensity working class voters that 2022 Republicans did not. Also I don't expect Trump to get Lee Zeldin's performance, but he may emulate Joe Pinion's performance against Chuck Schumer. At the same time, his Georgia performance will likely be more similar to 2022 election denier Burt Jones's, his Wisconsin performance will likely be more similar to Ron Johnson's 2022 performance except he'll do even better in the driftless and northwestern WI, his PA performance will far outperform Mehmet Oz's in Western and Northeastern PA and may even outperform Oz a bit in SEPA. In Nevada he'll have more credibility with noncollege hispanic and white voters than Adam Laxalt did, and I expect him to outperform Lombardo. Same with AZ - and I think he'll utilize the early voting system to a much larger extent than 2022 AZ Repubs did. Michigan will be the cherry on top - polling indicates he's currently doing better there than he did in 2016, and he's definitely very different from Tudor Dixon (much more moderate on abortion, more cred with white working class voters).

All in all, while the swing in New York will be more intense than the swings in battleground states, it is very reasonable to expect the disparity in swing between NY and the battlegrounds to be much less severe than it was in 2022.

One of the features of 2022 was states that were 75-82% of 2020s total vote, (AZ, MI, PA, WI, GA) Dems had a much better performance than ones that were 66-70% or so of 2020 like CA, NY, FL. Yes, some Trump voters who didn't vote in 2022 will show up again in 2024 but don't pretend that these non-2022 voters are overwhelmingly R. If anything, presidential turnout should help Dems in NV, AZ, GA but help the GOP in MI, WI, PA based on the demographics of the non-2022 voters.

[Xing]

Biden might not be in a good position, but I'll believe Purple York when I see it.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I tried to say this felt like the case, but the majority of the forum failed to read between the lines or blatantly refused to read past the title as if I were being a hack (except a handful of my fellow New Yorkers). My conclusion is the same as jaichind. New York may be screwed, but so is Trump.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Even if Trump gains 7 in CA, 10 NY and 5 in TX, he still has to gain a significant amount of votes elsewhere to be tied in the popular vote. I could see a hard shift right in the Deep South as well, but a tied popular vote should still translate to a national win per my spreadsheet. the EC-PV gap will likely close to 1-2 points though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The topline looks bad, but Trump is still nowhere near Zeldin's percentage, and I doubt he can replicate it to get this sort of result on election day. The state may swing right, but it's being way overestimated how much it could swing that way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump could win big with the third parties similar to Clinton 92. This election may not be that close.

Not

[heatcharger]

(Among Democrats) Should Democrats re-nominate Joe Biden or someone else?

52% Someone Else
41% Joe!

Just realized the 2024 DNC is in Chicago — we could see some fireworks. 1968 vibes.

[DaleCooper]

It's interesting how the right is basically speed-running through the 2020 Democrat experience. Completely ignoring the warning signs apparent from the previous midterms, taking obviously fake polls as gospel, believing that they will win votes solely based on how unpopular the incumbent is, assuming that they are simultaneously benefiting from favorable trends while also reversing all unfavorable trends, ignoring the fact that their candidate is relatively invisible at the moment and will certainly become less popular once the public has to hear from him, predicting that every single random news story helps their guy. Now we're apparently meant to believe that this election won't even be close.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It's interesting how the right is basically speed-running through the 2020 Democrat experience. Completely ignoring the warning signs apparent from the previous midterms, taking obviously fake polls as gospel, believing that they will win votes solely based on how unpopular the incumbent is, assuming that they are simultaneously benefiting from favorable trends while also reversing all unfavorable trends, ignoring the fact that their candidate is relatively invisible at the moment and will certainly become less popular once the public has to hear from him, predicting that every single random news story helps their guy. Now we're apparently meant to believe that this election won't even be close.

What? Democrats won Pennsylvania by 13 and 17 in the previous midterm. They won Wisconsin Senate by 11 and Michigan by 6.5. Yet Biden still knew that Pennsylvania would be close. Except for Florida, the midterms weren’t really a sign at all. The midterms mean about as much as the 1978 midterms did.

Trump is also about as popular as he’s always been. It’s your wishful thinking to believe that he will become less popular as he goes in the spotlight. He should be tied in the popular vote since Biden and Trump have the same favorabilities. Both unfavorable aren’t going to magically break for Biden, however much you wish. The poor perceptions of the economy are hurting Biden by at least a few percent, and your own vibes or feelings doesn’t change that.

From 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2020 about 43 states shifted the same direction. Why isn’t this a reasonable assumption from 2020 to 2024?

[DaleCooper]

It's interesting how the right is basically speed-running through the 2020 Democrat experience. Completely ignoring the warning signs apparent from the previous midterms, taking obviously fake polls as gospel, believing that they will win votes solely based on how unpopular the incumbent is, assuming that they are simultaneously benefiting from favorable trends while also reversing all unfavorable trends, ignoring the fact that their candidate is relatively invisible at the moment and will certainly become less popular once the public has to hear from him, predicting that every single random news story helps their guy. Now we're apparently meant to believe that this election won't even be close.

What? Democrats won Pennsylvania by 13 and 17 in the previous midterm. They won Wisconsin Senate by 11 and Michigan by 6.5. Yet Biden still knew that Pennsylvania would be close. Except for Florida, the midterms weren’t really a sign at all. The midterms mean about as much as the 1978 midterms did.

Trump is also about as popular as he’s always been. It’s your wishful thinking to believe that he will become less popular as he goes in the spotlight. He should be tied in the popular vote since Biden and Trump have the same favorabilities. Both unfavorable aren’t going to magically break for Biden, however much you wish. The poor perceptions of the economy are hurting Biden by at least a few percent, and your own vibes or feelings doesn’t change that.

From 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2020 about 43 states shifted the same direction. Why isn’t this a reasonable assumption from 2020 to 2024?

There were a number of indications in 2018 that Biden would have problems with WWC voters. Stabenow doing worse, Collin Peterson doing worse than in 2016, McCaskill doing worse than Kander, Ohio's results being more Republican than expected, O'Rourke doing worse than Hillary in RGV.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It's interesting how the right is basically speed-running through the 2020 Democrat experience. Completely ignoring the warning signs apparent from the previous midterms, taking obviously fake polls as gospel, believing that they will win votes solely based on how unpopular the incumbent is, assuming that they are simultaneously benefiting from favorable trends while also reversing all unfavorable trends, ignoring the fact that their candidate is relatively invisible at the moment and will certainly become less popular once the public has to hear from him, predicting that every single random news story helps their guy. Now we're apparently meant to believe that this election won't even be close.

What? Democrats won Pennsylvania by 13 and 17 in the previous midterm. They won Wisconsin Senate by 11 and Michigan by 6.5. Yet Biden still knew that Pennsylvania would be close. Except for Florida, the midterms weren’t really a sign at all. The midterms mean about as much as the 1978 midterms did.

Trump is also about as popular as he’s always been. It’s your wishful thinking to believe that he will become less popular as he goes in the spotlight. He should be tied in the popular vote since Biden and Trump have the same favorabilities. Both unfavorable aren’t going to magically break for Biden, however much you wish. The poor perceptions of the economy are hurting Biden by at least a few percent, and your own vibes or feelings doesn’t change that.

From 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2020 about 43 states shifted the same direction. Why isn’t this a reasonable assumption from 2020 to 2024?

There were a number of indications in 2018 that Biden would have problems with WWC voters. Stabenow doing worse, Collin Peterson doing worse than in 2016, McCaskill doing worse than Kander, Ohio's results being more Republican than expected, O'Rourke doing worse than Hillary in RGV.

There was quite a bit of reversion with WWC in 2018 actually. Iowa actually voted D at the congressional level. Biden also did slightly better than Clinton with WWC so yes this trend did stop. Trump did better with another group in 2020, Hispanics. Maybe Biden doesn’t do better in suburbs but does better in retirement communities in Florida?

The other signs you mentioned weren’t really signs; it just means that Senate races were more polarized than before. Still the Democratic Senate incumbents generally outperformed Clinton by double digits and the overall environment was D +9, hardly a warning sign.

Yes, RGV was a warning sign but it was also there in 2014 without any large shift in 2016. Idk if the black belt is similar this time with even Walker doing better than Trump there.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Also Biden will obviously win NY, but if he's struggling to clear a 15% margin then house Rs like Lawler are probably on track to win again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also Biden will obviously win NY, but if he's struggling to clear a 15% margin then house Rs like Lawler are probably on track to win again.

You believe this poll 400 days from Eday lol, campaign doesn't begin until both Trump and Biden both clinch the nomination it's a 303 map anyways


Biden will win CA, NY, IL 61/38 in a 303 map scenario, the question is split voting can ALLRED win while Brown, Tester win and Manchin loses

[TodayJunior]

I'll say it again - Biden needs to drop out. His position has only worsened and he barely won last time.

Biden is not going anywhere. As long as trump is the opposition, he’s safe.