Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Oryxslayer]

22% turnout by 1:30pm

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Compared to the 25% expectation - this is high. Easily going to beat 30% turnout overall with those numbers.

[Oryxslayer]

I have read every election thread on here since 2013, and it seems like turnout reports are favorable for democrats in every single one.

City counties like to report their turnout numbers, while rurals are hard to project data from due to their lack of voters, and suburbs always tend to lag due to the majority of votes coming in post-work after the commute. So yeah, I could see why turnout reports tend to have a D-Bias. However, I remember times when they favored pubs - Wayne county in 2016 for example.

[Oryxslayer]

BOOM

This actually lower Jones approval then in some of the pre-election polls we saw.

[Oryxslayer]

Nina Turner just called Roy Moore "batshit crazy" on CNN.

Well, I think that’s the first time I’ve ever agreed with her.

CNN's coverage is so anti-Moore, it's not even funny.  And, FOX isn't covering it, so I don't know what to watch.

Sorry but sometimes reality is anti-Republican. The media covers reality and reality has an anti-Republican bias.

More like an anti-pedophile bias. I don't tgink any media organization, even FOX wants to come off as endorsing pedophilia. If you have to report on this from a conservative viewpoint, it require spinning Moores candidacy against Washington and the Media. But it's hard to escape pedos.

[Oryxslayer]

Chris Stirwalt said a large turnout favored Jones.  I am agnostic.

Moore benefits if turnout is at the extremes: low turnout sees more high-propensity whits turnout, while very high turnout sees most 2016 Rep voters turn out and punish Jones. Between the two turnout benefits Jones - to varrying degrees. The question is, aere we seeing high turnout which benefits Moore, or Medium/High turnout that benefits Jones.

[Oryxslayer]

Initial results from Greene and Monroe. 157 Jones - 53 Moore.

[Oryxslayer]

Butler county initial result come in. Total now 321 - 103  - 5 Jones.

[Oryxslayer]

Initial results from Covington and Coffee in the Wiregrass come in. Now 421 - 327 Dem.

[Oryxslayer]

Lamar, Fayette, and Clay county comes in with the early vote for Moore. now 482 - 458 - 7 Jones.

355 - 20 Jones in Bullock early on CNN, not on NYT.

[Oryxslayer]

Big - Mobile, Talladega, and Cherokee all drop early vote. Jones winning Mobile early by a lot. Jones winning Mobile and Talladega. Now 1832 - 1119 - 15 Jones.

[Oryxslayer]

Marengo, Jackson, and Autauga drop early vote. 2152 - 1482 - 15 Jones.

Montgomery early vote drops now along with Chocktaw. Now 3303 Jones - 1869 Moore - 15 Write in.

[Oryxslayer]

Warning this is only early vote. Once results start coming in hard and fast, I will stop with these updates.

Jones gets the Pickens early vote. Moore gets Randolph Cullman, Dale, Winston, Blout and Morgan.

4033 - 2903 - 23 Jones.

[Oryxslayer]

THIS IS ONLY EARLY VOTE.

With that said, Jones gets another big bomb - Tuscaloosa 1252 - 422 Jones. Crucially NYT says 2 precincts reported, not 1/preliminary. Jones also gets Tallapoosa and  early vote - a rep county.

Oh and Birmingham early vote came in - 1122 Jones -131 Moore.

Moore gets Elmore, and Bibb, marshall, Washington, and Franklin.

10712 - 7290 - 128 Jones.

BIG Talladega now at 7/27 Precincts 2707 - 1631 Jones.

Jones flips Monroe as precincts come in.

Funny - Jones wins Etowah county early vote 153 - 15.

[Oryxslayer]

Moore wins Crenshaw, and dekalb early votes. Jones ahead in Colbert w/3 of 26 precincts. Jones ahead in Hudson 4/28 precincts in the wiregrass. Questioning if this is a mistake in precincts reported and early vote, or actural returns. Jones wins Russel. Jones wins lauderdale, Lee, and Calhoun early vote.

Linestone (remember) 12/26 in 6311 - 4441 - 175 Moore. 57.8/40.6

22466 - 19008 - 417 Jones.

[Oryxslayer]

Moore ahead due to Limestone at 20/26 while the rest of the state is at early vote.

Huntsville early vote in for Jones.

At 5% in 29206 - 27248 - 724 Moore.

[Oryxslayer]

Houston in the wiregrass  now at 18/28 pushes moore to 53/45.

Critical for jones, 6 precincts now in Huntsville, now only 50.8. Wonder where they are in the county.

Interestingly, St Clair flips w/6/31 precincts. Republican suburb county.  

[Oryxslayer]

23% reporting 52.8% - 45.9% Moore. Notes:

Birmingham droped 25 Precincts very heavy Jones. Similar votes then 25 precincts in Limestone, though not all precincts are created equal. Lauderdale at 11/32 still holding Jones. Probably all city, little suburbs.

Russell 13/18 jones at 67/32.

10/24 in Lee , jones ahead 57/41.

20/30 monroe 52 - 47 Jones.

St Clair flipped back 12/31 67/31 Moore.

19/27 Talladega, Jones lead 54/46.

9/40 Morgan 50/47 Jones.

10/73 Madison 55/41

Pike drops 25/34 50/48 Moore.

[Oryxslayer]

Birmingham drops 18 more precincts. Must have been marginal precincts that went heavy jones, cause it shoved the NYT tracker.

Crucially: No vote from Shelby, only early from Mobile and Tuscaloosa. Half vote for Elmore/ Blount/ Walker - all suburb counties.

Tuscaloosa dropped some results 17/55 55 - 43 Jones.

Jones at 75% chance of victory. I don't buy it, but thats nice.

[Oryxslayer]

Shelby at 6/48  62.5 - 36 Moore

Macon nearly finished 88.6/11.1 Jones

Madison 30/73 57.6 - 39.3 Jones.

Perry 13/13 79/20.7 Jones

Dale close 18/20 64.8 - 34.1 Moore

Randolph  finished 65.3 - 34,2 Moore

Clerburne nearly finished 14/15 80 - 19 Moore.

Monroe nearly done 26/30 51 - 48 Jones

Conecuh 26/28 56.1 - 43.4 Jones

Colbert finished 53.1 - 46.9 Moore

Cullman nearly done 42/50 79 - 19.4 Moore

63 /172 Jefferson. Jones still above 80% 86% Jones on NYT, I'm beginning to expect Jones now...

[Oryxslayer]

Crucially, virtually nothing from Montgomery.

Glancing through most Moore counties, they are at least 60% precincts reporting. Tuscaloosa/Mobile/Birmingham still lots left.

Swing Talladega just finished 50.7 - 49.3 Jones.

Lee and Chambers also swing counties at 19/24  and 14/21 with Jones leads.

[Oryxslayer]

55/190 now in Mobile Jones holding above 60%.

23/24 in Swing Lee/Auburn 55.7 - 42.3 Jones.

83/172 Jefferson Jones still above 80%.

51/73 Madison 55.6 - 41.3 Jones

38/99 Montgomery 72% Jones

What has to hurt Moore: Suburban Elmore, Autauga, St. Clair, Blount, Cullman, Walker, Jackson, Limestone, Lauderdale, and Colbert are nearly all in - only a handful of precincts remaining in all of them. Only Baldwin and Shelby Suburban counties left.

Jones still high on NYT

[Oryxslayer]

I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

Sites been slow today for some reason. probably a load of users from this election.

[Oryxslayer]

Major counties left:

Mobile only 55/140

Baldwin only 17/47

Hale only on Initial results

Dallas at 0%

Montgomery at 38/99

Tuscaloosa at 17./55

Birmingham 83/172

Shelby 30/48

Madison 57/73

Note the number of Moore counties on this list. All other counties are done/or 1-2 precincts left. It is all down to Jones's turnout in the cities.

[Oryxslayer]

Jefferson now 120/172 76.4% Jones 21.9% Moore, 1.6% write in.

Montegomery 43/99 71.7% - 28.3% Jones.

[Oryxslayer]

My god, he might do this.

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