Which gubernatorial races will Democrats win?

[°Leprechaun]

I haven't been following these races, to be honest. So this will be informative for me.

[😥]

FL, GA, IA, OR, WI

[Rookie Yinzer]

FL, GA, IA, OR, WI

[ON Progressive]

Unless it's an absolutely disastrous night, there's no reason why Dems would lose Oregon, or even Nevada. Laxalt is actually polling worse than Dean Heller, and Heller is not polling well at all.

Democrats are definitely favoured in Wisconsin at this point, though I can't say they will win for certain. Evers is up by a fair margin, but I don't feel like Walker can be counted out yet.

As of now, Florida has a slight edge for the Democrat, Andrew Gillum. He's actually running ahead of Nelson in the polls which is quite remarkable.

Iowa, Georgia, and Kansas are all pure tossups right now. I'm most confident in Iowa of those three states, but there just isn't much data in that or Kansas.

Kansas would probably be in the WI/FL category, but Orman is ruining everything.

Georgia is difficult thanks to the runoff rule, but that non-white turnout in the VBMs (the majority of those non-white voters didn't even vote at all 4 years ago!) looks extremely good for her.

Ohio seems to be the hardest one of these for Democrats, but this can definitely go up the list and would also best be characterized as a tossup.

[MT Treasurer]

Oregon and Nevada for sure, and they’re slightly favored in FL. The other races are Toss-ups.

[Del Tachi]

Oregon and Nevada.  Abrams will lose in a runoff to Kemp, and Dems will come up painfully short in all the other races.

[Mr. Smith]

I voted with optimism for once:

OR, NV, WI, FL, KS, GA.

Georgia and Kansas are the most iffy, but the trends seem to suggest it.

Not sure why the state that voted by 8 for "that candidate that was barely less gaffe prone than Failey" and Trump by 10 would go over to Hubbell.

And Cordray just always loses to DeWine. Little different from IN-SEN 2016 if Baron Hill had stayed on.

[Xing]

Unless it's an absolutely disastrous night, there's no reason why Dems would lose Oregon, or even Nevada. Laxalt is actually polling worse than Dean Heller, and Heller is not polling well at all.

Democrats are definitely favoured in Wisconsin at this point, though I can't say they will win for certain. Evers is up by a fair margin, but I don't feel like Walker can be counted out yet.

As of now, Florida has a slight edge for the Democrat, Andrew Gillum. He's actually running ahead of Nelson in the polls which is quite remarkable.

Iowa, Georgia, and Kansas are all pure tossups right now. I'm most confident in Iowa of those three states, but there just isn't much data in that or Kansas.

Kansas would probably be in the WI/FL category, but Orman is ruining everything.

Georgia is difficult thanks to the runoff rule, but that non-white turnout in the VBMs (the majority of those non-white voters didn't even vote at all 4 years ago!) looks extremely good for her.

Ohio seems to be the hardest one of these for Democrats, but this can definitely go up the list and would also best be characterized as a tossup.

I agree with this post entirely, and my guess is that Democrats will win FL, IA, KS, NV, OR, and WI, and that NV and OR don't have a realistic chance of going Republican (trigger warning for OC) except in a massive red wave.

[Orser67]

Voted for all but GA and KS.

I don't think OR will be close (same with MI and NM), and I see Democrats as the clear favorites in NV, FL, WI, and OH (and ME). IA is a tossup but I think Democrats will pull it out.

I actually think that Kemp is the favorite in GA even without the run-off. With Orman in the race, KS is unpredictable, but I think just enough GOP voters will vote for Kobach that he'll win.

OK, SD, and NH could also conceivably flip, but I think Republicans are favored in all three races. AZ, MD, MA, and VT seem to have fallen off the board, but I think it's conceivable that we could see a shocking upset in one of those races.

[Burke Bro]

As of now, Oregon, and with lesser confidence, Florida, Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio. Clueless about Iowa.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Fl WI and OR. And I think we would win GA if we nominated Jimmy again.

[Politician]

Fl WI and OR. And I think we would win GA if we nominated Jimmy again.

Carter would go Bayh Bayh.

Besides, he's 90. He might die in his governorship.

[Rookie Yinzer]

And I think we would win GA if we nominated Jimmy again.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

And I think we would win GA if we nominated Jimmy again.

Hillary lost GA by only like 5 Kemp will probably only win by 2-3, I have a hard time not seeing him make up that deficit.

[Hammy]

FL/NV/OH/OR. I know nothing that's going on in Kansas or Iowa so can't say either way, and it's become clear that the GOP is going to do everything they can (legal or not) to retain power in GA and WI.

[Scottholes 2.0]

FL/NV/OH/OR. I know nothing that's going on in Kansas or Iowa so can't say either way, and it's become clear that the GOP is going to do everything they can (legal or not) to retain power in GA and WI.

That doesn't mean the GOP will be successful, especially since Dems are very aware of the voter suppression in WI and GA.

[Hammy]

FL/NV/OH/OR. I know nothing that's going on in Kansas or Iowa so can't say either way, and it's become clear that the GOP is going to do everything they can (legal or not) to retain power in GA and WI.

That doesn't mean the GOP will be successful, especially since Dems are very aware of the voter suppression in WI and GA.

They'd challenge, and even if lower courts ruled in their favor, it would wind up at the Supreme Court, where the outcome would be a forgone conclusion.

[Virginiá]

FL/NV/OH/OR. I know nothing that's going on in Kansas or Iowa so can't say either way, and it's become clear that the GOP is going to do everything they can (legal or not) to retain power in GA and WI.

They'd challenge, and even if lower courts ruled in their favor, it would wind up at the Supreme Court, where the outcome would be a forgone conclusion.

Walker had a chance to repeal same-day voter registration but he balked at the $ cost of doing so. So he definitely hasn't been doing everything he can to cling to power.

Not to say the WIGOP hasn't implemented voter suppression, but they didn't push it nearly as far as they could have.

[Politician]

I actually believe Democrats will win ALL of those governorships.

[ShadowRocket]

I feel pretty good about our prospects in all of these, with the only exception being GA due to the potential run-off.

[Progressive Pessimist]

All are tossups (except Oregon). The only ones I am somewhat confident in saying that the Democrat will most likely win are Florida and Oregon.

[TML]

According to RealClearPolitics, if Election Day were today, Democrats would win FL, IA, OH, OR, and WI.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IL, WI, MI, ME, NM will flip FL, IA, OH, KS, GA are tossups

[wesmoorenerd]

I think Dems are favored in all but Georgia and Kansas. Georgia is too unpredictable to characterize as leaning either way. Kansas is fool's gold.

[Scottholes 2.0]

WI and IA might surprise us all, but we'll see.