2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[ajc0918]

The early enthusiasm thing among Ds is universal.  In fast growing educated Dallas Co Iowa the absentee ballot requests are in the Ds favor 9856 to 5656.  In 2016 it was 6683 to 8141 in the Rs favor.  Now in part that is because the county has gone from a 7300 R voter advantage to a 3000 R voter advantage, but anyway you look at it, it's a big swing in enthusiasm at this point.

Yeah, I'm trying not to read too much into these results b/c this year is so much in flux, but the fact that Ds have such a *massive* advantage right now in the mail AND early vote total shows at the very least that enthusiasm is very high.

Hopefully it allows Dems to focus on sporadic voters if other targets vote early.

[ajc0918]

Really good dashboard for tracking returned ballots so far in Florida.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

[ajc0918]

Really good dashboard for tracking returned ballots so far in Florida.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Where did he get these numbers? Because on official site there are only 7,5k ballots cast so far.

State website is updated only once daily. Counties update throughout the day. He'll be updating the model several times a day now as ballots are accounted for.

[ajc0918]

Umichvoter
@umichvoter99
·
51s
Statewide ballots at 70,000 in Florida already
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Florida has surpassed 85,000 already. May hit 100,000 tonight.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1311078308273098752?s=20

[ajc0918]

Interesting numbers so far in Florida.


Party   Returned Ballots in Florida:   
Democrats   - 70,349
Republicans - 36,075   
Minor - 1,636   
No Party Affiliation - 23,772   
TOTAL - 131,832   

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

[ajc0918]

Still too early, but these 200k first FL votes look great for Democrats.

because of 131k votes? LOL dems are expected to do well in early voting if not they are def losing.

There are actually about 237k votes in and Dems have 54% of those or a 62k vote advantage. As it was said it’s still early but generally the split is much much more even.

[ajc0918]

251,103 people have voted in Florida

Democratic 135,509 (54.0%)
Republican 70,103 (27.9%)
Others 45,491 (18.1%)

Google Doc: https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

Before today Miami-Dade had only sent out ballots for overseas voters.
https://wsvn.com/news/local/over-530000-mail-in-ballots-to-be-sent-out-in-miami-dade-county/

And Orange County (Orlando) did not sent out ballots until yesterday.
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/orange-county-rolls-out-historic-number-of-mail-in-ballots

Many Democratic voters have not even gotten their ballots yet.

Pinellas only sent ballots Tuesday so very few are in from that county. Dems lead ballot requests by 25,000 in Pinellas.

[ajc0918]

251,103 people have voted in Florida

Democratic 135,509 (54.0%)
Republican 70,103 (27.9%)
Others 45,491 (18.1%)

Google Doc: https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

Before today Miami-Dade had only sent out ballots for overseas voters.
https://wsvn.com/news/local/over-530000-mail-in-ballots-to-be-sent-out-in-miami-dade-county/

And Orange County (Orlando) did not sent out ballots until yesterday.
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/orange-county-rolls-out-historic-number-of-mail-in-ballots

Many Democratic voters have not even gotten their ballots yet.

 Democrats in Florida are actually doing a great job mailing back ballots. Usually we have a terrible time getting people to mail them back. Also I believe many African Americans will still be voting in person after Church services on the weekends when early in person voting starts. Some people are worried that we are pulling votes forward but that's stupid. A banked vote is better than anything. Florida GOP does a great job with turnout and has closed the registration gap so it's going to be a battle in Florida like always.

Agreed. Not only are Florida Dems returning more ballots in raw numbers but their percent of returned ballots is also higher. Hope it continues so they can target sporadic voters.

[ajc0918]

Current Florida returned ballot composition:

Democrats: 181,020 (53.93%)
Republicans: 91,563 (27.28%)
NPA: 59,153 (17.62%)
Others: 3,938 (1.17%)

Advantage: D+89,457

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

[ajc0918]

Miami-Dade, Orange and Pinellas have really low return rates. They must be slow at processing their ballots.

Pinellas only mailed ballots on the 29th. Hillsborough send theirs on the 24th. Pinellas' should start rolling in today and over the weekend in big numbers.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1318378841518280704

WTB breakdown of totals, but it's looking like Democrats netted votes from both mail and early voting today in FL.

So, this didn't happen.

Barely. Dems still gained ~8,000 or so on the day due to mail ballots. They lost the early vote by 365 or so votes out of over 364,000 votes cast.

[ajc0918]

Dems in Florida simply need parity with the GOP in terms of turnout. If they can match GOP turnout and make sure NPA turnout doesnt drop off too far they will likely win. The Dem coalition in the state is built with NPAs.

The GOP will turnout and catch up.