Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[MaxQue]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

I know what SWIFT is. Do you know what SWIFT is?

I know that cutting Russia off from SWIFT would cause western institutions harm as well as Russian ones, yes. Not something we want to be doing.

So, you are ready to accept the definitive decline of the West because you're afraid for your stock portfolio. Shame on you.

[MaxQue]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

Seems like a good plan. Arm as many vigilantes no matter who they are. Russia can enjoy the next decade of this.

The Ukrainian people will be the ones "enjoying" that decade.

They are going to "enjoy" multiple decades if they do nothing. Ever heard of the Holomodor?

[MaxQue]

To the people saying it's a lot to ask of civilians – no duh. They're not being compelled to fight afaik, and I certainly wouldn't blame any who chose to flee or submit. But I certainly think it's incredibly admirable for those who can fight to do so.

That, but with a caveat. I would heavily blame anybody who hapilly and willfully collaborate or abet the Russian enemy. Hopefully, collaborator scum will be dealt with harshly once Ukraine is free again.

[MaxQue]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

I know what SWIFT is. Do you know what SWIFT is?

I know that cutting Russia off from SWIFT would cause western institutions harm as well as Russian ones, yes. Not something we want to be doing.

Again, this is not about what would be hurting "western insititutions" or not. This is about what's necessary.

To quote Dean Rusk, appeasement only makes the aggressor more aggressive.

Well, it won't happen. thanks to your country being run by Olaf Schroder.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1496901716876443648?s=20&t=IA9yLGC2x-U...

Why were Russia ships being allowed to cross the straits anyway? The Russians were building up an invasion to (theoretically) end increasing ties between Ukraine and NATO, why was a NATO member letting them move warship into the area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits

https://twitter.com/SonerCagaptay/status/1496837367436562435

Moscow broke the Minsk agreement, surely that allow NATO to break that one?

[MaxQue]

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

My sense is that they don't want to "shoot the final bullet" at this moment already, but I think it's inevitably going to happen.

Get real. Your chancellor is just too afraid to offend his friend Gehrard Schroder.

[MaxQue]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

Sadly this seems to be why the west can’t respond properly to either Russia or China . We are so addicted with low prices that it hampers our ability to respond.

Would also help if we'd spent the past year expanding production instead of constricting it. Biden's foreign policy has been good but his domestic policy is a disaster across the board and this is an example.

This is a huge example :


https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496579280091951111?cxt=HHwWjsC5...

Again, the main problem is that you will never get cheap oil from Keystone XL. Bituminous sands is the most expensive source of oil, which means that when prices are low, either the pipeline will be empty (as it will cost money to the oil company to sell its oil) or you're stuck in a contract where someone will have to buy oil at an above market price (terrible for the USA competitivity).

[MaxQue]

Apparently China is Ukraine’s largest investor. Second largest export partner. And largest import partner.


China doesn’t care what happens to Russia or Ukraine. Only their bottom line. Their Bottom line will be hurt if Putin continues his schemes.

And if China openly backs Russia, the Western world will cut off acccess For Chinese businessmen.

Russia and China have become important partners. They committed to a "no limits partnership" long ago. They have similar revanchist interests (Ukraine, Taiwan).

Is China committed, through? Russia needs China way more that China needs Russia and I don't think China would have any problem dumping Russia is they feel it is in their interest.

[MaxQue]

Unconfirmed : But it seems as if Putin wants a military coup in Ukraine.

I don't think a coup is likely at all, but it one happens, it won't be on the Ukraine side.

[MaxQue]

This is big:

https://twitter.com/alexrossmusic/status/1497242538415046657

And American, too, the Carnegie Hall replaced him yesterday for a concert this weekend,

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

And I don't want to read your inane posts, but, that's life, you don't always get what you want.

[MaxQue]

Russian born (he has dual Russian/American citizenship) National Hockey League star, who's already one of the greatest of all time, Alexander Ovetchkin who has always publicly shown support for Putin has publicly said: "Please, no more war" last night.

""Well, he's my president. But, how I said, I'm not in politics. I'm an athlete," Ochevkin replied. "How I said, hope everything's going to be done soon. It's a hard situation right now for both sides. Everything, like how I said, everything I hope is going to be end, and I'm not in control of situation.""

""Please, no more war," he urged. "Doesn't matter who's in the war. Russia. Ukraine. Different countries. I think we live in a world like we have to live in peace and a great world.""

https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1497307285067997184?s=20&t=joCt93LwSCDM...

There have been a lot of antiwar-but-not-necessarily-pro-Ukraine statements from the extremely patriotic/nationalistic Russian figure skating world too--Evgenia Medvedeva, Maxim Trankov. Hopefully it's having some effect on public opinion.

It won't because Russians will never hear about it, or Russia will twist their words to make the athletes approving of the war.

[MaxQue]

Holy moly, it seems like Russia is moving troops in Belarus near the Polish border. Putin apparently wants to threaten NATO.

https://twitter.com/demianvonosten/status/1497544786718380032

I assume that if Putin is insane enough to invade Poland, it would drag all of NATO into this?

[MaxQue]

Bosphorus closed to Russian navy.

This is false! Montreux Protocol prohibits it!

Article 19 gives Turkey that power, as it forbids countries at war from using it.

[MaxQue]

Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

I commend Zelensky's personal courage. He may have done a poor job preparing his nation for war, but there's no doubt he is now raising the morale of his nation and boosting their will to fight. Looks like it was enough for the Ukrainians to hold Kiev for now, but he is still under threat and if he were captured it would crush Ukrainian morale. He either has a highly secret (and likely highly dangerous) plan to evacuate when he is under imminent threat, or it is his intention to become a martyr. Nothing of the former has leaked so I think the latter is a real possibility.

I feel that, like Putin, Zelensky also wants its place in the history books, but in a rather different role.

[MaxQue]

Bosphorus closed to Russian navy.

This is false! Montreux Protocol prohibits it!

Article 19 gives Turkey that power, as it forbids countries at war from using it.

It also says Ships must be allowed to their Home Bases!

I somehow doubt most of the Russian Fleet is based in the Black Sea. There must be a significant part based at Kaliningrad.

Also, Article 21 can also be used to delay.

[MaxQue]

These stories and pictures of Ukrainian civilians being given weapons create images of the Volkssturm in 1945.  They were and are still are bad idea not just because of the lives it cost but they were mostly ineffective.  German generals in 1945 often complain that the Volkssturm units were better of being disbanded and instead working in the German army itself to work on logistics and communications versus trying to fight the USSR forces in battle,

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

Maybe more importantly, why do you continue to be Putin's useful idiot? Are you getting paid by him or what?

We don't need this sort of toxicity in here. Cut it out.

No.

Instead of engaging what jaichind said (including the question as to whether civilians can fight properly), you throw accusations of him being paid by Putin?
Good lord. What a disgrace. We don't need any of that here, and he is owed an apology.
That is all.

If anyone is owned an apology, it's us, for your disgraceful simping.

[MaxQue]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

[MaxQue]

In contrast to the based commies in Japan, our breed of commies are f*****g morons.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CpusaDepartment/status/1497944574961938432

Well, to be fair, one is way more serious than the other. The Japan Communists are, well, social democrats at this point, and they are a serious party with a large membership (it claims 270000 members), has 10 representatives and 13 senators. It got 7% of the vote last election and has non-stop representation in the Diet since democracy came back after WWII.

The CPUSA, well. It claims less than 10000 members and did not run candidates for election since 1984 and never elected anybody anywhere.

[MaxQue]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

Because humans are imperfect perceivers and judges of the world around them? Because a territorially-fragmented Ukraine cannot join NATO? Because maybe it was expected the Maidan government would agree to the terms of Minsk and basically grant the east of the country substantially more power?

We cannot hold against Ukraine the fact it didn't kept its part of Minsk, given no side really did even try to keep its part.

[MaxQue]

The Ukrainians are certainly in a much stronger position for these peace talks than when Zelensky was asking for them two days ago. Still, I don't think he will get status quo ante bellum here. Russian forces have fallen short of expectations for sure but they are still winning in the sense that they hold Ukrainian territory, including some important parts in the South near Crimea.

Zelensky gave in on the location of the talks only after the SWIFT and Central bank sanctions.  That way he will go in knowing that Russia knows time is not on their side.  Of course, he has to be realistic on how much he can get away with no concessions.

It seems the deputy Foreign Minister is going to those talks, not Zelensky. Smart, as it may be a trap to capture him.

[MaxQue]

Would the fall of Kiev be the end of the conventional war or do we anticipate continued conventional resistance in the west?

The west is both the most anti-Russian part of the country and it is quite more hilly (even mountains in the far west). I would assume they would resist there, as it would be easier to defend.

[MaxQue]

If Putin decides to blow Ukrainian cities to bits from missiles, because his troops have no stomach for carrying out his mad designs, killing tens of thousands of civilians, that is a red line. At that point it is no fly zone time. If Putin can kill from the air in that way, then it is time to close such air from being an arterial for the commission of such unspeakable acts.

And in tandem, I would hope and trust that considerable thought  is being given to the state of Putin's health.

Easy to say from a back bencher I understand. Biden is earning his pay these days. This is where the rubber meets the road. The rest relatively speaking is noise. I hope and trust this is the focus of his SOTU.

The issue is you cannot enforce that no-fly zone without starting WWIII.

The problem is that a red line is needed somewhere. That logic means he could invade half of Europe and USA would still do nothing.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498815833681891332

Bu... but Comrade Putin has said in Soviet Russia you don't need large banks and financial institutions.

The Western sanctions against Russia are stronger then even Germany in WW2. The allies did not sanction the German central bank.

As a note, apparently the primary person who was pushing to sanction the central bank was Chrysta Freeland, Canadian foreign minister and Trudeau’s right hand woman.

She is the Finance minister (but she has been the foreign minister at a point and seems to pretty much run the government by herself). She is also half-Ukrainian.

[MaxQue]

Good analysis in this Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickForVA/status/1498702036363210754

Between analysis like this showing how Russian victory isn't a done deal, analysis showing how Russian victory is a done deal, analysis showing how it might take a month for Kiev to fall, the halting & logistical problems of the Kiev convoy, Belarus troops seemingly entering Ukraine + the destruction of Kharkiv & the Russian economy, I have no clue what to make of the trajectory of the conflict.

I think it is pretty clear that absent a coup in Moscow (or a stunning reversal by Putin), Russia will win conventionally in the short term. With that said, if the Ukrainian people's morale remains high and the entire country remains mobilized for an insurgency, then they will win they long run because Russia will not be able to afford hold the entire country.

While that's certainly possible, after what we've seen I don't think it's guaranteed. I'm not so naive as to believe the logistics of Putin's invasion are a complete disaster, but it seems plausible that they're insufficient to support what he's trying to do. In which case, the Russian invasion is going to run out of steam at some point. How soon that might happen, I have no idea. But if they reach insufficient levels of supply to keep advancing soon, while Russian economically falls apart, that will not be a win for Russia in any real sense.

Depends on what "winning" is. If that's taking the whole country, I agree that is questionable. But Russia could take Kiev and Kharkov, take Mariupol and encircle the Ukrainian forces facing Donetsk, and then call a ceasefire and negotiate from there. It's not a certainty but I think Russia is still more likely than not to succeed at this limited goal. In this hypothetical Russia will have taken Ukraine's largest city and capital, second largest city, most of their Black Sea coast, and neutralized their fortifications in the east, which is still quite a bit that could be given back to Ukraine in exchange for the neutrality guarantees they are looking for.

If that's even the reason why Putin started that war.