Early Voting thread.

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Literally the only state that early voting tells us anything about is Nevada. Until Ralston starts doing his analyses, don’t freak out.

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Literally the only state that early voting tells us anything about is Nevada. Until Ralston starts doing his analyses, don’t freak out.

What does NV tell us?

It’s very easy to extrapolate the winner of statewide elections there before Election Day because of their high propensity of early voting.

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As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

Any knowledge of what partisanship looked like in 2018?
Wither way its still BRUTAL for Dems because they should be leading in this type of voting, even in redder areas.

"Does anyone have numbers so I can back up the narrative that I've already made clear I support without them?"

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Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

Again, "literally anyone who knows" about early voting should realize it can't tell us much outside of Nevada.

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Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

Again, "literally anyone who knows" about early voting should realize it can't tell us much outside of Nevada.

I like how it goes from “give me proof” to “well actually this doesnt matter” with you bloomers. I would say shifting the goalposts, but that uneremphasizes just how ludicrous this is.

No no, you misunderstand me. I think building a narrative from early voting in most states is ridiculous - but even MORE ridiculous is building it without even an attempt at backing it up.

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I remember analyses of Florida’s 2016 early vote that suggested Clinton’s lead was insurmountable. But they were modeled off the 2012 electorate — which didn’t have a number of low-propensity Trump voters who showed up on Election Day.

It’s foolish to read too much into these numbers, especially when trying to compare them to an election held during a once-in-a-lifetime global pandemic.

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Hopefully this is “Jon Ralston: The Thread” from here on out.

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https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

Tough to say without knowing what precincts the voters are coming from.

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https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Not so sure about this. Is there any turnout scenario that helps Democrats, or is their victory entirely down to persuasion?

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https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Not so sure about this. Is there any turnout scenario that helps Democrats, or is their victory entirely down to persuasion?

Ultra low turnout where only political enthusiasts, union members, and the uber educated vote in any significant numbers? 

Sure, I buy that. I just think any turnout scenario COULD be spun one way or another, when the real answer “we don’t know who’s doing the turning out.”

I will say, though, that turnout being this high makes me skeptical of lots of the LV screens we’ve seen so far this cycle.

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Arizona numbers look good, but I'm trying not to infer too much from them because we really don't know what patterns will be like this cycle.

Per Ralston:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1583956876609212417?s=20&t=VO8uvjJ...

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The point of the Clark firewall is its percentage, not necessarily its raw numbers. We can't judge that after 2 whole days, one of which had an enormous dust storm. ESPECIALLY if Dems are crushing it in the mail vote rather than in-person.

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Louisiana early voting begins tomorrow. (We don't have anything exciting on the ballot, so don't look into the tea leaves too much.)

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Ralston updated.

In short: Washoe looks like what Dems need it to, Clark doesn't yet. But there are lingering questions about mail-in ballots arriving in Clark that make it hard to draw conclusions.

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Ralston updated.

In short: Washoe looks like what Dems need it to, Clark doesn't yet. But there are lingering questions about mail-in ballots arriving in Clark that make it hard to draw conclusions.

It really depends, is this just extremely low turnout across the board? While possible, it is not something that CCM would feel very happy having to rely upon.

The turnout patterns in Washoe make me skeptical it's the former, but it will be interesting to see these develop over the week.

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At the same time, 2018 shows 457K ballots with an R+18 lead at this time... and Sinema won that year obv.

Which is why we shouldn't be reading too much into any of this yet.

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Update from Ralston: still in a holding pattern. Dems are doing very well by mail in Clark (crushing the Republican lead in the rurals), but turnout remains low outside of Washoe (where Dems are actually doing surprisingly well). They need to beat their registration edge given the likely tilt of indies this cycle, but we're about where things were in 2018 in terms of the raw freiwal number.

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How much of Nevada is up to date? Are we waiting on mail dumps, non-reporting rural counties, etc? Target smart shows Clark ahead of other counties at about 30% of total 2020 early vote, but the Clark firewall is only 5%.

We’re not sure yet. That’s part of why it’s tough to draw conclusions — we’re waiting on all of the above.

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Ralston update, with models. Summary: hard to tell exactly what's going on with how much of the rurals are out and mail-in ballots late to arrive in Clark, but things look solid for Democrats as of today. We'll see if that holds.

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Another Ralston update. Dems appear to be doing well in the competitive NV house races so far.

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What does the early vote tell us about this year’s midterm election?

Many people are voting.

Except where they aren't.

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Another Ralston update. Dems appear to be doing well in the competitive NV house races so far.

Dems will be in for a rude awakening as more votes come in and a tidal wave sweeps over on the 8th.

Not sure what you’re basing this on. If anything, the Dem vote in Nevada should continue to build over the next week and a half.

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Another Ralston update. Dems appear to be doing well in the competitive NV house races so far.

Dems will be in for a rude awakening as more votes come in and a tidal wave sweeps over on the 8th.

Not sure what you’re basing this on. If anything, the Dem vote in Nevada should continue to build over the next week and a half.

I don’t think they’ll be able to withstand the beating they’re going to be taking with indies or the defections we’ll see with many working class Hispanics.

Check out Ralston’s models. Indies are going to have to break VERY hard for Republicans if the firewall stays where it is, percentage-wise. I don’t see it happening, but I could be wrong.

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NV, AZ, and MN looking good but not FL...maybe OC was right about the sunbelt stack.

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NV, AZ, and MN looking good but not FL...maybe OC was right about the sunbelt stack.

I wouldn't count my chickens just yet on Nevada.

While Democrats have an Advantage as John Ralston alluded to he also said that Independent Voters in the Silver State leaning Republican this year.

Consider this fact mate: Sisolak won Indies 55-37 per 2018 Exit Polls when he ran against Laxalt see here:
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/nevada

First of all, that's not what Ralston said. He said IF Indies are breaking heavily Republican this year, it would look good for Laxalt and Lombardo.

Second of all, do you people not understand how jokes work?