TX-University of Texas/Tyler: Texas = swing state

[Burke Bro]

Wow, are trends real?

usually

[Progressive Pessimist]

I still think Trump is slightly ahead here. I can't really fathom Texas being tied and yet him being up in Georgia. However, both states will probably be embarrassingly close wins for him if the current polling holds up. I've always been bearish with these two states, but I'm growing less so as time goes on. I'm usually just cautious about Biden investing too much in these states because I don't want him to spread himself too thin, especially when he only needs the three easiest to flip states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) to win.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think we're headed for a Biden/Cornyn result out of Texas.

Honestly I think Hegar can win too. I dont get why people think she's a bad candidate. She actually matched Betos performance in her district, unlike Ortiz, Allred and several others.

It's because her fundraising is not nearly enough to get her name out statewide. Cornyn will have all the resources he needs to put a little bit of distance between him and Trump, so if Trump loses the state, there's still a good chance Cornyn hangs on.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Nuclear Elmo time.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Nuclear Elmo time.

It's been nuclear Elmo time for Trump in Texas since Cruz only won by 2.6% when everyone was expecting him to win by more. Most people have been goofily dismissing it as a fluke though.

Add to that, this is the 15th poll or so in a row showing Texas a tossup.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

frenchrepublican exploded

2020 is going to be the year of the collapse of the TX Republican gerrymander. Democrats could pick up 4-5 seats in TX.

[lfromnj]

It says they weighted the electorate to be 38% GOP and 39% D , seems a bit weird to weight it high. Just wondering why they would want to change their weighting so much? I could see Texas voting D of course but I am just curious why this weighting decision came out, I dont want to start unskewing polls either.

[BaldEagle1991]

Texas is becoming more like America as a whole. That is bad new for any Presidential candidate who is out of touch with America because that means 38 electoral votes could swing wildly.

Trump is out of touch now. I can't say that Texas is faring worse than other states, but Donald Trump is the most obnoxious d@mnyankee that anyone could know. Sure I say this from Michigan, but I used to live in Texas. You don't want to be a d@mnyankee in Texas.

Many Texans Trump supporters view him as an "honorary Texan" sadly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1256818270109405184

[OSR stands with Israel]

If this is really 2008 this could be an apt analogy:


Arizona= Colorado
Georgia= Virginia
Texas= North Carolina
Ohio = Missouri
? = Indiana

[S019]

If this is really 2008 this could be an apt analogy:


Arizona= Colorado
Georgia= Virginia
Texas= North Carolina
Ohio = Missouri
? = Indiana

The only equivalent for IN, as in a state that votes Dem out of left field, but then goes back to being Republican is probably MT, KS, or AK, and I doubt any of them vote R for President, but I could see all 3 be D for Sen., but they all could be close for President, so actually I'd say OH/IA as Indiana, and MT/KS/AK as MO, as OH/IA are likelier to vote D than MT/KS/AK for President, but probably not for Senate.

[ElectionsGuy]

Since when do Democrats outnumber Republicans in Texas?

[OSR stands with Israel]

If this is really 2008 this could be an apt analogy:


Arizona= Colorado
Georgia= Virginia
Texas= North Carolina
Ohio = Missouri
? = Indiana

The only equivalent for IN, as in a state that votes Dem out of left field, but then goes back to being Republican is probably MT, KS, or AK, and I doubt any of them vote R for President, but I could see all 3 be D for Sen., but they all could be close for President, so actually I'd say OH/IA as Indiana, and MT/KS/AK as MO, as OH/IA are likelier to vote D than MT/KS/AK for President, but probably not for Senate.

I actually would say then Iowa as Indiana and Ohio as Missouri. Missouri being a state that was once considered a bellwether state for a very long time fails to vote for the winner even in a year the winner won a huge victory and basically marking the end of that state being considered a battleground state. Even if Biden wins Ohio, it would have been like Obama winning Missouri(which he definitely could have) in which it is more like a last hurrah than anything.

Iowa goes as Indiana in that you see a massive swing but the problem with this analogy is Indiana had been solid R for Decades before 2008 and nobody thought before Lehman that it would be close while Iowa even after 2018 was considered at worst a Likely R state(while Indiana even after 2006 was viewed as Safe R unless Bayh was on the ticket). Iowa really doesn't fit any 2008 state really.

I dont at this time seeing any state that is really equal to Indiana 2008 as MT actually more is equal to MT 2008 and KS in GA 2008 which were states that required a 1980 style Dem victory to flip

[OSR stands with Israel]

Since when do Democrats outnumber Republicans in Texas?

That part of the poll is definitely off but if Trump is losing Michigan by 9 well then I definitely could see Texas being close to a tie and would give the slight edge to Biden at that point.

[BaldEagle1991]

Since when do Democrats outnumber Republicans in Texas?

When Houston got bigger.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since when do Democrats outnumber Republicans in Texas?

That part of the poll is definitely off but if Trump is losing Michigan by 9 well then I definitely could see Texas being close to a tie and would give the slight edge to Biden at that point.

Alot of Rs have a hard time believing polls just like they insisted until recently that PA was a tilt R state, Spark and 538. Now you have 2016 blue avatar thinking MT, NC and KS are red states and Cunningham, Bollier and Bullock have 60% approval like Gov Kelly, and Cooper and Bullock already have a 60 percent approval.

Cornyn has to watch his back, if this poll is true, a Sen Hegar or White can be in making

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Texas President by University of Texas on 2020-04-27

Summary: D: 43%, R: 43%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details