Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

There's actually another final SHOCK poll out today, which I'll post later.

Meinungsraum.at poll for GMX:

FPÖ pulls ahead !

Turnout projected at 80% (+5).

(pic)

https://www.gmx.at/magazine/politik/wahlen/nationalratswahl/exklusive-umfrage-nationalratswahl-christian-kern-kompetentesten-sebastian-kurz-liebster-direktkandidat-32574458

I have a few problems with this poll: meinungsraum.at is an online panel only pollster and their support for small parties is between 5 and 9%, which is extremely unlikely.

Is it an established pollster? I remember those random Belgian polls which predicted a Mélenchon landslide in the first round of the French elections lol.

They were good before the 2013 election, but totally blew the first round of the Presidential election last year (like every other pollster).

I do not really believe this poll.

[Mike88]

There's actually another final SHOCK poll out today, which I'll post later.

Meinungsraum.at poll for GMX:

FPÖ pulls ahead !

Turnout projected at 80% (+5).



https://www.gmx.at/magazine/politik/wahlen/nationalratswahl/exklusive-umfrage-nationalratswahl-christian-kern-kompetentesten-sebastian-kurz-liebster-direktkandidat-32574458

I have a few problems with this poll: meinungsraum.at is an online panel only pollster and their support for small parties is between 5 and 9%, which is extremely unlikely.

So the average is:

29% FPÖ
27% ÖVP
20% SPÖ
  7% NEOS
  6% Pilz
  5% Grunen
  7% Others

Yeah, Tender is right about the "others" share. From what i've seen on the wikipedia table, the "others" are between 1% and 3%. But, my guess is that it will a close race for 1st place. Much closer than expected.

[DavidB.]

The FPÖ unexpectedly coming first would only make the FPÖVP coalition formation process more difficult, won't it?

[Tender Branson]

But, my guess is that it will a close race for 1st place. Much closer than expected.

Maybe.

Kurz's support was always built on a bubble and the question always was: "Will former Team Stronach and BZÖ voters, who are ideologically very similar to the FPÖ, also stick with Kurz's softcore FPÖ-message on election day, or go with the "original" - the FPÖ - when it matters ?

There could definitely be some last-minute shift going on right now, away from the ÖVP to the FPÖ because the SPÖ's Silberstein scandal was dominating last week's headlines and in which the ÖVP was also kinda involved, or thought to be involved. This could drive some voters into the arms of the FPÖ, who also ran a mostly flawless and appealing campaign ... We'll see.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ unexpectedly coming first would only make the FPÖVP coalition formation process more difficult, won't it?

That would be an absolute horror scenario and I hope we are spared of this.

But if the AfD won Saxony, it's also possible that the FPÖ can win here I guess ...

[Lord Halifax]

Who has the most reliable electorate ÖVP or FPÖ?

[mileslunn]

Would OVP and SPO possibly form a grand coalition to keep the FPO out?  Also I would think FPO in the lead would make the government unstable and be bad for the economy.  As a junior partner by contrast that will probably damage them much like in 2016 when they plunged.  Another possibility is could FPO agree to yield the chancellor to the OVP even if they got more votes.  In Denmark, Danish People's Party got more votes than Venestre yet Venestre formed the government.  Nonetheless I figure the far right winning in one European country would likely destroy their credibility elsewhere although I had hoped Donald Trump's win (who is like the FPO as opposed to OVP) would be enough to sink them as I at least thought Trump was pretty reviled in Europe so surprised they didn't try to tie them more to him but maybe he isn't as hated in Austria as some of the more liberal coastal European countries as it seems the land locked areas tend to be the most conservative parts at least on immigration and social issues.

[Tender Branson]

Who has the most reliable electorate ÖVP or FPÖ?

Turnout is projected to be 78-80% by several pollsters, so the turnout differences between the parties are not that high here: all parties have very reliable voters.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the last day to request postal ballots.

The total number of requested ballots should be released in the evening or tomorrow.

I guess 850.000 to 1 million, which would be a new record.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the last day to request postal ballots.

The total number of requested ballots should be released in the evening or tomorrow.

I guess 850.000 to 1 million, which would be a new record.

The state of Salzburg has already released their numbers:

2017: 52.282 requested postal ballots (+31%)
2013: 39.910 requested postal ballots

For comparison, the Presidential election last year had 36.000 (first round) and 38.000 (runoff) requested postal ballots in Salzburg.

[Tender Branson]

Tyrol, an ÖVP-stronghold and below-average turnout state, so far has the biggest increase in requested postal ballots:

65.500 vs. 43.500 in 2013, an increase of 51% (!).

Tyrol also has a ballot initiative about the Winter Olympics 2026, which could drive up turnout there.

[Tender Branson]

The Austria-wide postal ballot requests have now been released by the Interior Ministry:

  22.877 vs.   19.446 Burgenland (+18%)
  50.636 vs.   39.083 Carinthia (+30%)
144.554 vs. 118.826 Lower Austria (+22%)
159.672 vs. 108.659 Upper Austria (+47%)
  52.282 vs.   39.910 Salzburg (+31%)
149.271 vs. 107.704 Styria (+39%)
  65.544 vs.   43.539 Tyrol (+51%)
  38.888 vs.   27.067 Vorarlberg (+44%)
205.469 vs. 164.576 Vienna (+25%)

889.193 vs. 668.810 AUSTRIA (+33%)

http://www.bmi.gv.at/412/Nationalratswahlen/Nationalratswahl_2017/start.aspx#pk_8

The 889.000 is a new record.

[Tender Branson]

A man from Burgenland cannot vote because his postal ballot was stolen out of the postal worker's car:

http://derstandard.at/2000065977101/Rekord-bei-Wahlkarten-zeichnet-sich-ab

A stolen, destroyed, or lost postal ballot cannot be replaced.

[Tender Branson]

The NYT has taken notice:

Austria Poised to Shift Sharply Right in Election

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/13/world/europe/austria-election-freedom-party.html

And CNN too:

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/13/europe/sebastian-kurz-austrian-election/index.html

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ out with their closing ads:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfRvz5cNGws

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VODBKaouMBM

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDlFYOYFOFE

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[Tender Branson]

SPÖ/Kern's closing ad ("Shaping the Future"):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXDXeZ6B2gE

Click on subtitles -> German -> Automatically translate to English.

[Tender Branson]

Here are 4 recent ads from Kurz/ÖVP:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVBhjUm2MyI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjN_HFn4_-I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKo5xhwgGTc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alqyq7xIKU0

[Omega21]

Here are 4 recent ads from Kurz/ÖVP:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVBhjUm2MyI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjN_HFn4_-I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKo5xhwgGTc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alqyq7xIKU0

Here's an ad from the Greens, aimed personally at you

I took the picture at the U-Bahn station next to the University of Vienna. Have been seeing a lot of them there.



Translation: Who thinks Green, but votes Red (SPÖ), can only get Blue (FPÖ)

[Tender Branson]

Endgame today. All parties have ended their campaign yesterday or today, with NEOS being the last in the afternoon (Christian Lindner from the German FDP will also campaign for them).

Plus: the weather will be absolutely amazing tomorrow (just like today) with temperatures of 20-25°C and no clouds. Not sure if this helps or hurts turnout - but I think it will be high.

I will also post some pictures of my precinct and people voting tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

Preview of the ORF results screen tomorrow, which will show live state, district and municipal results, seats, seat changes, coalition options, "exit poll" data and voter streams compared with the previous election:

[Tender Branson]

Additional sources for tomorrow:

POLITICO: "How to watch the Austrian election like a pro."

CNN: "Sebastian Kurz: Austria's answer to Macron and Trudeau ?"

Financial Times: "Austria’s election: Europe’s next populist test."

Bloomberg: "Austrians Lean Toward Nationalist Government Led by a Millennial."

Reuters: "Austrian election tests conservative star stealing far right's thunder."

Reuters Factbox: "Policies of Austria's main parties in Sunday's election."

[Tender Branson]

Fun fact:

3 of the 7 more-or-less important parties have seen major German politicians campaign for them in Austria.

NEOS: Christian Lindner (FDP leader)

Greens: Cem Özdemir (Green leader)

KPÖ+: Gregor Gysi (major Left Party politician)

On the other hand, SPÖ/ÖVP/FPÖ/PILZ did not have German support. Kern certainly doesn't want the weak Eurocrat Schulz around, Kurz doesn't want the unpopular Merkel around. The FPÖ can expect nothing from the AfD - who are only 50% as strong as they are.

[Lotuslander]

Fun fact:

3 of the 7 more-or-less important parties have seen major German politicians campaign for them in Austria.

NEOS: Christian Lindner (FDP leader)

Greens: Cem Özdemir (Green leader)

KPÖ+: Gregor Gysi (major Left Party politician)

Interesting. Is that a regular occurrence in European countries or just a German/Austrian thing? Reason why I ask is that in many jurisdictions, one would consider that as one country interfering in another countrie's election campaign, which would result in public/media backlash.

[Tender Branson]

Fun fact:

3 of the 7 more-or-less important parties have seen major German politicians campaign for them in Austria.

NEOS: Christian Lindner (FDP leader)

Greens: Cem Özdemir (Green leader)

KPÖ+: Gregor Gysi (major Left Party politician)

Interesting. Is that a regular occurrence in European countries or just a German/Austrian thing? Reason why I ask is that in many jurisdictions, one would consider that as one country interfering in another countrie's election campaign, which would result in public/media backlash.

I don't think it's a big problem if someone from a European sister party campaigns here.

And it's not resulting in a media backlash.

A bigger problem is the campaigning of foreign politicians to agitate groups in other countries, such as Erdogan in Austria and Germany - who wanted Turks living there to vote for him and the referendum. That's a HUGE problem. He also encouraged Turks in Germany to vote against the CDU etc. - even though the AKP is the CDU's (and ÖVP's) sister party. He's re-inforcing the sentiment that the Turks here are not real Austrians or Germans with his actions and who wants to split society.

[jaichind]

When does poll close and any link to results ?