SurveyUSA 14-State Poll Release

[Gustaf]

Interesting. Much worse polls for Obama than the last round from SUSA. Apart from the amusement factor of the comments (didn't SUSA use to be best pollster when they were showing Obama doing well?) I'll note my standard scepticism towards SUSA multi-state polling and, finally:

they poll 14 states. 14 chosen states. And one of them is Kansas. Not Florida. Not Pennsylvania. Not Nevada. Not Colorado. Not even New Jersey or Montana, Rhode Island or North Dakota. But KANSAS!

And don't you ask me "what's the matter with Kansas". It wouldn't be funny.

[Gustaf]

they poll 14 states. 14 chosen states. And one of them is Kansas. Not Florida. Not Pennsylvania. Not Nevada. Not Colorado. Not even New Jersey or Montana, Rhode Island or North Dakota. But KANSAS!

They poll on commission.  They dropped a few states this time around for some reason.

I understand that, but who in their right mind commissions a poll on Kansas? I know you like to slap senate races in my face when I make these glaring accusations against pollsters, but I don't believe there is any competitive race going on in Kansas this year, correct?

[Gustaf]

they poll 14 states. 14 chosen states. And one of them is Kansas. Not Florida. Not Pennsylvania. Not Nevada. Not Colorado. Not even New Jersey or Montana, Rhode Island or North Dakota. But KANSAS!

They poll on commission.  They dropped a few states this time around for some reason.

I understand that, but who in their right mind commissions a poll on Kansas? I know you like to slap senate races in my face when I make these glaring accusations against pollsters, but I don't believe there is any competitive race going on in Kansas this year, correct?

It's a pretty small part of a news station's budget, and that's who does it.

Ah. I'm not American, so I keep forgetting that these small God-forsaken states have news stations of their own and stuff. I guess it makes sense then.

[Gustaf]

If I remember correctly, Kerry was also only leading by about 7 in California early on. Doesn't mean he didn't win comfortably.

He ended up winning it with a lead of just under 10.

I would call 12 points more Democratic than the national margin a comfortable win.

I think his point was that if you win by 9.95% leading by 7% is not "only" or underestimating or anything like that. It is simply within margin of error of the actual result. So Obama or Clinton leading by 7% shouldn't be a surprise either. It's exactly what one should expect (especially since the margin often grows a little bit once undecideds start making up their minds).