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  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
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  2008 Elections
  2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  SurveyUSA 14-State Poll Release
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Author Topic: SurveyUSA 14-State Poll Release  (Read 6249 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 17, 2008, 02:32:30 pm »

All polls conducted between April 11-13:

Massachusetts:

Clinton vs. McCain: 56-41
Obama vs. McCain: 48-46

New Mexico:

Clinton vs. McCain: 46-49
Obama vs. McCain: 44-50

Missouri:

Clinton vs. McCain: 47-46
Obama vs. McCain: 42-50

New York:

Clinton vs. McCain: 55-39
Obama vs. McCain: 52-43

Ohio:

Clinton vs. McCain: 53-42
Obama vs. McCain: 45-47

Oregon:

Obama vs. McCain: 51-42
Clinton vs. McCain: 47-46

Virginia:

Obama vs. McCain: 44-52
Clinton vs. McCain: 39-55

Minnesota:

Obama vs. McCain: 49-43
Clinton vs. McCain: 47-46

Wisconsin:

Obama vs. McCain: 49-44
Clinton vs. McCain: 46-46

Kansas:

Obama vs. McCain: 37-54
Clinton vs. McCain: 36-57

Alabama:

Clinton vs. McCain: 34-60
Obama vs. McCain: 32-64

California:

Clinton vs. McCain: 53-40
Obama vs. McCain: 50-43

Iowa:

Obama vs. McCain: 49-42
Clinton vs. McCain: 42-48

Kentucky:

Clinton vs. McCain: 46-48
Obama vs. McCain: 29-63

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2008, 02:33:44 pm »

Pretty bad news for Obama there.

I'll add them.
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agcatter
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« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2008, 02:40:47 pm »

As expected, Obama doing better in the Northwest (oregon) and upper midwest (Minn & Wisconsin) as well as Iowa.

As for the other states, Hillary needs to take these numbers to the super delegates.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2008, 02:43:02 pm »



Green = Obama performs better against McCain than Clinton
Red = Clinton performs better against McCain than Obama
Gray = No data

>30% = Both candidates lose to McCain
>40% = One candidate wins against McCain, the other loses
>50% = One candidate wins against McCain, the other ties
>60% = Both candidates win against McCain
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elcorazon
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« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2008, 02:45:34 pm »

while these numbers are not great for obama, I don't see them as all that surprising.  Hillary does better in Oh, Mo and NM (slightly surprising) (36 EV's)
Obama better in Iowa, Minn, Oregon, Wisconsin, Virginia (49 EV's)

In Kentucky Hillary looks competitive, but I don't believe it.
IN Mass, McCain looks competitive vs. obama, but I question that as well.
NY, Kansas, Alabama, California ain't changing sides regardless, so they're moot.
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Alcon
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« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2008, 02:48:22 pm »

Hah:  McCain is within MoE of Obama among Kentucky Democrats.  Ouchies.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2008, 02:49:03 pm »

Compared with their last poll release, Obama gained in OH and lost badly in VA, NM. Why ?

East Kentucky is funny:

Clinton: 53%
McCain: 39%
"Other": 8%

McCain: 70%
Obama: 18%
"Other": 12%

Tongue
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2008, 02:51:10 pm »

Survery USA gets some really strange results when they do these huge 10-15 state GE polls.  I wouldn't pay much attention to them. 
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2008, 02:54:50 pm »

OMG!!! Obama is going to lose Massachusetts.

It will be a fight in Ohio. But for Obama to only be back 2 points in Ohio, after all the media attention (and negativity) being on him for the past month or so, and John McCain not being touched by the media or the Democrats so far, is good news for him.

I'm a bit surprised about New Mexico, however.

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2008, 02:56:03 pm »

Survery USA gets some really strange results when they do these huge 10-15 state GE polls.  I wouldn't pay much attention to them. 

Yeah, especially because they show Hillary doing better than Obama in a general election match-up in Kentucky of all places!

Everyone knows Obama would do a hell of a lot better than Hillary in Kentucky in November.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: April 17, 2008, 02:59:47 pm »

Obama actually loses the St. Louis area to McCain in this matchup ... ROFL !

I think we can safely put 'R' next to SurveyUSA from now on.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #11 on: April 17, 2008, 03:02:08 pm »

Everyone knows Obama would do a hell of a lot better than Hillary in Kentucky in November.

Everyone in New America, that is.  Everyone else knows that the opposite is true, of course.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: April 17, 2008, 03:04:14 pm »

Obama actually loses the St. Louis area to McCain in this matchup ... ROFL !

I think we can safely put 'R' next to SurveyUSA from now on.

I just looked up SUSA's regional defintion and according to them "St. Louis" it's not just including St. Louis City and St. Louis County, but most of Eastern Missouri as well. Therefore it might actually be tied. But he wouldn´t lose the city+county alone to McCain ...
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #13 on: April 17, 2008, 03:10:01 pm »

What's their definition of East Kentucky, by any chance?

Do they mean just the good counties in the far east, or the hopeless ones in the southeast too?

(Granted, Obama's going to win 3 or 4 rural counties in the area, no matter what happens.)
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #14 on: April 17, 2008, 03:11:34 pm »

Funny numbers, but it is just a snapshot in time.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: April 17, 2008, 03:12:37 pm »

What's their definition of East Kentucky, by any chance?

Do they mean just the good counties in the far east, or the hopeless ones in the southeast too?

(Granted, Obama's going to win 3 or 4 rural counties in the area, no matter what happens.)

http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_080220.htm
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: April 17, 2008, 03:16:33 pm »

What's their definition of East Kentucky, by any chance?

Do they mean just the good counties in the far east, or the hopeless ones in the southeast too?

(Granted, Obama's going to win 3 or 4 rural counties in the area, no matter what happens.)

http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_080220.htm

It's got Clinton County, Pulaski, Laurel, etc., so yes, I can see Obama getting beaten by a lot there. If it was just the part in the Charleston/Huntington DMA, I'd be far more worried about Obama.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #17 on: April 17, 2008, 03:23:36 pm »

Young people in Kentucky must really hate Obama.  Clinton also does better among African-Americans, so I don't know what happened there.

Also, why can't Obama seem to do well in Massachusetts?  This still baffles me.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2008, 03:27:05 pm »

Young people in Kentucky must really hate Obama.  Clinton also does better among African-Americans, so I don't know what happened there.

Also, why can't Obama seem to do well in Massachusetts?  This still baffles me.
one word:  racism
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2008, 03:27:14 pm »

Young people in Kentucky must really hate Obama.  Clinton also does better among African-Americans, so I don't know what happened there.

Also, why can't Obama seem to do well in Massachusetts?  This still baffles me.

They really like the Clintons there... I truly believe that has a lot to do with it.  

....and racism.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #20 on: April 17, 2008, 03:29:41 pm »

Young people in Kentucky must really hate Obama.  Clinton also does better among African-Americans, so I don't know what happened there.

Also, why can't Obama seem to do well in Massachusetts?  This still baffles me.

They really like the Clintons there... I truly believe that has a lot to do with it. 

....and racism.

I haven't seen any polls out of Rhode Island, but is there any similar effect noticable?
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Alcon
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« Reply #21 on: April 17, 2008, 03:33:23 pm »

Young people in Kentucky must really hate Obama.  Clinton also does better among African-Americans, so I don't know what happened there.

Also, why can't Obama seem to do well in Massachusetts?  This still baffles me.

They really like the Clintons there... I truly believe that has a lot to do with it. 

....and racism.

I haven't seen any polls out of Rhode Island, but is there any similar effect noticable?

A SurveyUSA one on 2/28 had Obama +15 and Clinton +17.

A Brown University poll on 2/10 had Obama +12 and Clinton +11.  The same poll found Clinton leading Obama in the primary, 36%-28% with 27% saying they would vote for Uncommitted and 9% undecided.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2008, 03:35:48 pm »

IF YOU DON'T LIKE MY CANDIDATE THEN YOU A RACIST SIR, A GODDAMN DIRTY RACIST!!!!!!!11

Seriously though, while simple racism is a factor in some areas, other things are always at work. If Barack Obama was as white as his mother and called Dave Jones he'd still be polling badly relative to Clinton in the places where that's happening now.

Were this polls done after the bitter thing [question mark]
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Alcon
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« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2008, 03:37:11 pm »

IF YOU DON'T LIKE MY CANDIDATE THEN YOU A RACIST SIR, A GODDAMN DIRTY RACIST!!!!!!!11

Seriously though, while simple racism is a factor in some areas, other things are always at work. If Barack Obama was as white as his mother and called Dave Jones he'd still be polling badly relative to Clinton in the places where that's happening now.

Were this polls done after the bitter thing [question mark]

Monday, so yes.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #24 on: April 17, 2008, 03:40:14 pm »

IF YOU DON'T LIKE MY CANDIDATE THEN YOU A RACIST SIR, A GODDAMN DIRTY RACIST!!!!!!!11

Seriously though, while simple racism is a factor in some areas, other things are always at work. If Barack Obama was as white as his mother and called Dave Jones he'd still be polling badly relative to Clinton in the places where that's happening now.

Were this polls done after the bitter thing [question mark]
this is such rubbish.  There is an ingrained skepticism of black folks in some areas, including the Boston area, which is actually not nearly as liberal as it's perceived to be.

Hard to explain the wide gap between obama/mccain and clinton/mccain in mass, as opposed to places like Oregon, Washington, MInnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, where the gap is the other direction (not huge black populations in those states).  I can understand Hillary outperforming barack by a few points in Cal, NY, NM, Ohio, but the wide gap is Massachusetts is highly suspect.  Hopefully in the fall, the "liberals" will show up and elect Obama.
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