ME: Independents Gaining Traction

[MAINEiac4434]

If she runs the race is hers. The question would be who she would nominate to be her replacement.

[MAINEiac4434]

If she runs the race is hers. The question would be who she would nominate to be her replacement.

The article cited suggests LePage could get to do the nominating.

Then LePage would nominate himself.

[MAINEiac4434]

I'll happily vote for Collins for governor if that means I get a progressive senator. Troy Jackson please.

We can dream, hombre. While I probably wouldn't vote for Collins herself and rather the paper candidate Democrat they put up, I would be mostly okay with her as governor. I don't think I could deal with two years of Senator LePage though.

[MAINEiac4434]

Maine's independent state treasurer announced today that she would run for governor.

She was a Dem until 2014. I'm getting Cutler flashbacks.

She was nominated to her position by Republicans in the state legislature.

I honestly don't know much about her.

[MAINEiac4434]

MAINEiac (nice name, btw) - If Collins doesn't run, which Republican do you think has the best chance to win a gubernatorial race?

Most people here think that this race is a guaranteed pickup for Democrats, but I think Republicans can win if they play their cards right. But it will be a tough race for sure.

If Collins doesn't run and Poliquin does, he'd be the favorite. But if neither run, the race will be wide open like in 2010. Mike Thibodeau, the Senate President, has said he wouldn't run but I don't really believe him. He's fairly prominent and has been known to take on LePage occasionally. Rick Bennett, the chairman of the party and first GOP electoral college member since 1988 has been on a media blitz (as much as one can in Maine) recently. Mary Mayhew, the DHHS commish, could be a favorite as she's been a bit of an anti-welfare and anti-Obamacare crusader.

If neither Poliquin nor Collins run, I will honestly have no idea who wins the primaries. I'd reasons guess the candidate that can best tap into the LePage wing of the party would be the favorite.

And believe you me, this race is by no means safe for the Ds even in a Trump midterm, especially now that we have an ex-D independent in the race. If the Dem nominee comes from Portland that may make them toxic to the rest of the state (Justin Alfond, ex-Senate President, is a Portlander). If they fail to appease the prominent and vocal Bernie contingent they'll be hamstrung. Apparently Troy Jackson, Bernie's only Maine superdelegate and a logger from the north, is uninterested. If he ran, he'd have my support even as a Clinton supporter in the primary.

LePage is saying he doesn't know if he would endorse Collins is she does run -- almost definitely to her benefit.

Absolutely, though she's endorsed him both times he'd run for governor.

[MAINEiac4434]

LePage is saying he doesn't know if he would endorse Collins is she does run -- almost definitely to her benefit.

Absolutely, though she's endorsed him both times he'd run for governor.

Wait, really? Not only is LePage a bigger ass than I realized, this just goes to show Collins' true colors.

As for Troy Jackson, it's probably wise he sits out a gubernatorial run if he were to go up against Collins. Maybe he can run for the Second District again? He seems like a real contended with a future.

Well she stayed neutral during the 2010 primary but after he won she endorsed him. And before 2014 as wel. Olympia did too, to her eternal discredit.

[MAINEiac4434]

LePage is saying he doesn't know if he would endorse Collins is she does run -- almost definitely to her benefit.

Absolutely, though she's endorsed him both times he'd run for governor.

Wait, really? Not only is LePage a bigger ass than I realized, this just goes to show Collins' true colors.

As for Troy Jackson, it's probably wise he sits out a gubernatorial run if he were to go up against Collins. Maybe he can run for the Second District again? He seems like a real contended with a future.

Jackson should definitely run in ME-2, I think he'd be favored against Poliquin even in a neutral year tbh. 

Emily Cain is definitely too "Southern Maine" for the second district. Diehard Clinton supporter, no links to unions, very well educated. It makes her seem aloof.

[MAINEiac4434]

I'd much rather have Poliquin run and keep Collins in the Senate.

Would Maine's 2nd be pretty secure without Poliquin?  If so, then you are very right.

It could flip back to the Democrats in a wave election. Emily Cain was within 10 points of Poliquin, and ran better than Hillary.

ME-02 used to be more safe than ME-01 because of the union vote. It actually flipped from GOP to Dem in 1994 (when Snowe retired to run for senate). John Baldacci and Mike Michaud routinely won with huge margins. It makes Poliquin's margins over Cain (which are healthy) seem quaint.

[MAINEiac4434]

Poliquin is overrated and I doubt he'd be able to win statewide. He's not even a good fit for the second district. It's more blue collar and he's the typical rich snake oil salesman professional politician who's run for office after office. He's lucky Democrats are incompetent and can't put forward a candidate who's appealing to the district. The last time he ran for governor, he placed sixth out of seven candidates in the Republican primary. Then he lost the Republican primary in 2012 to challenge Angus King. It doesn't seem like his own party even likes him.

As for Collins, I'd love to see her run for governor so we can get someone better in the Senate. I've noticed a lot of people are upset with her for not stopping DeVos from coming out of committee.

This is exactly why I'm pissed off at her, and many Democrats who were previously neutral or supportive of her are pissed off at her (not that I ever supported her but I digress).

She could've ended DeVos right there. She didn't.

[MAINEiac4434]

Adam Cote announces for the Dems.

http://www.pressherald.com/2017/04/19/veteran-attorney-adam-cote-files-to-run-for-governor-as-democrat/

Veteran who lost to Chellie Pingree in the 2008 ME-01 primary. He hasn't run for anything since. Apparently is a bit of a moderate.

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Curiously doesn't mention Trump or LePage.

[MAINEiac4434]

I live near Sanford so I'm interested to see what he's all about. I'm not feeling the moderate label but I do like his military experience and background in renewable energy.

I mean, I was fine with Michaud being a moderate running against LePage, but now with the seat open I'm hoping for someone a bit more progressive.

[MAINEiac4434]

Manu Raju‏ @mkraju
Collins, considering a run for gov, tells me she's NOT leaning toward it but will make a decision in summer/fall.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/858866555391799296

And Maine democrats breathe a sigh of relief.

[MAINEiac4434]

Old, but: Cutler endorsed Hayes: https://bangordailynews.com/2017/05/02/politics/eliot-cutler-is-recruiting-independents-to-run-for-the-maine-legislature/?ref=topStories4Thumb

Also:

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Hayes is a union-buster, just like Cutler.

[MAINEiac4434]

They must be doing cartwheels at the MEGOP headquarters.

[MAINEiac4434]

Maine DHHS Commissioner Mary Mayhew is leaving the LePage administration.

http://bangordailynews.com/2017/05/24/politics/mary-mayhew-to-leave-lepage-administration/

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My guess is that she's starting the groundwork for a run.

This won't be able to get the LePage stench off of her.

[MAINEiac4434]

If Cutler f***s Maine into more sh*tty Republicans like LePage, so help me God.

Lepage Jr, thanks to Terry Hayes, backed by Eliot Cutler, sounds good to me.

This state cannot survive another four years of LePage mismanagement, resulting in more young people leaving the state, environmental mismanagement, ignoring the opioid crisis, and the collapse of our public schools.

[MAINEiac4434]

If Cutler f***s Maine into more sh*tty Republicans like LePage, so help me God.

Lepage Jr, thanks to Terry Hayes, backed by Eliot Cutler, sounds good to me.

This state cannot survive another four years of LePage mismanagement, resulting in more young people leaving the state, environmental mismanagement, ignoring the opioid crisis, and the collapse of our public schools.

[MAINEiac4434]

If Cutler f***s Maine into more sh*tty Republicans like LePage, so help me God.

Doesn't Maine have IRV now to prevent stuff like this?

Just struck down by the Maine Supreme Court.

[MAINEiac4434]

If Cutler f***s Maine into more sh*tty Republicans like LePage, so help me God.

Doesn't Maine have IRV now to prevent stuff like this?

Just struck down by the Maine Supreme Court.

If Maine had IRV, I wouldn't care. Cutler may have gotten the idea to support Independents/Centrist Prokect thinking it would stick, but... well, for now, it won't. And it's probably too late to get an Amendment on the ballot in time for it to be relevant. (Unless it goes to SCOTUS from SC of ME, somehow.)

Somewhat related, two term-limited Democrats who were Bernie aligned defected from the Party.

Harlow's my rep. To think I respected her.

[MAINEiac4434]

Is Terry Hayes prominent enough to play spoiler? Surely liberals and anti-LePage moderate voters aren't stupid enough to split the vote again, are they? Fool me once, fool me twice... Fool me three times?

She is literally a nobody, but so was Cutler.

Oh Mayhew: She is someone who reviles the poor and disabled almost as much as her boss does. She is LePage in drag. I would go to the ends of the earth to prevent her from winning.

[MAINEiac4434]

Progressive acitivst Betsy Sweet has launched her campaign:

http://sweetforgovernor.com/#

Endorsed. Probably stands no chance.

[MAINEiac4434]

She's a big name but vulnerable to her left.

[MAINEiac4434]

I also think it's interesting to note Terry Hayes has absolutely no campaign going right now. No website, no social media, nothing. When you google her name the website for the State Treasurer comes up. This is even after Cutler endorsed her.

If she wants to make any sort of headway, she needs to start her campaign soon. Especially with both Mills and Mayhew off and running.

[MAINEiac4434]

Eves vs. Mills right now. I'm more inclined to support Eves than Mills if I wasn't already on #TheSweetTeam.

I fear Mills will be Libby Mitchell/Mike Michaud 2.0. Troy Jackson would be better.

I'd argue that Mills is a better and more well known candidate than Mitchell ever was.

This. Libby was a nobody.

[MAINEiac4434]

Eves vs. Mills right now. I'm more inclined to support Eves than Mills if I wasn't already on #TheSweetTeam.

I fear Mills will be Libby Mitchell/Mike Michaud 2.0. Troy Jackson would be better.

I'd argue that Mills is a better and more well known candidate than Mitchell ever was.

This. Libby was a nobody.

Yeah, but what exactly is the upside for Democrats in nominating her over someone younger? She'll be 71 in 2018. If they were smart and looking ahead, they'd find someone young enough to serve two terms and then try for the Collins Senate seat in 2026 if she doesn't retire before then

EVES.